What goes up must stall and… Here is an interesting article on Facebook´s growthfigures from SF Gate.
“The number of new Facebook users in the United States dropped dramatically in June, with the popular social networking site losing more than a quarter of a million regular users between ages 18 and 44, according to figures collected by a market research website.
Inside Facebook, which analyzes user data that the social network provides to advertisers, noted that in the last 31 days Facebook registered 320,800 new active members – first-time users and those who logged into Facebook for the first time in over a month. The figure is notably low compared with the astronomical 7.8 million new active users registered in May, which represented a 6.7 percent monthly growth.
According to the latest company figures, Facebook has 500 million registered users.
“In terms of the overall trends in Facebook’s U.S. growth, this was a flatter month than usual for Facebook, which has seen about 3 to 4 percent monthly growth in the U.S. on average over the last year,” said Inside Facebook founder Justin Smith.
In contrast, June’s monthly growth was only 0.3 percent.
What’s more, 253,840 American members ages 18 to 44 didn’t even log on to Facebook in the same 31-day period. The largest group – more than 100,000 – was women ages 26 through 34.
Analysts believe it’s too early to say exactly what these numbers mean because a month’s data is not enough to detect patterns. The decline might be something as simple as a glitch, a reporting mistake from Facebook or a seasonal fluctuation.
Ray Valdes, an analyst with market research firm Gartner, said many people travel, graduate and get married during the summer, which may keep them away from their social networks.
“Less excitingly, the negative growth could simply be a blip. But in the years we’ve been tracking the demographic data, we’ve rarely seen a dip like this, so we would tend to favor the idea of a root cause,” Inside Facebook’s Chris Morrison wrote on Tuesday.
The data could also be a reflection of the saturation of the U.S. market, which Smith said they have been anticipating for some time. According to Inside Facebook, the social network giant had achieved a 41.1 percent market penetration as of the end of last month.
And there’s even less room to grow among young adults in the United States, said Josh Bernoff, an analyst with technology research firm Forrester.
“It certainly wouldn’t surprise me if we have seen growth among users between ages 18 to 34 reach its maximum,” he said. “Of course, once you do that, the only way to go is down.”
Bernoff said the decline in new active users might be a calculated consequence of a shift in Facebook’s growth strategy. For one, given the saturation of the young adult market, Facebook has been focusing on attracting users in older demographics.
“Growth among people 35 years old and up is always accompanied by a decline among people 18 to 34,” he said. “The reason is quite simple: Once your dad is in there, it’s not cool anymore.””
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