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Archive for the ‘Board Of Intellectual Capital’ Category

Here is an article from Bloomberg.

Nouriel Roubini, the New York University professor who forecast the U.S. recession more than a year before it began, said sovereign debt from the U.S. to Japan and Greece will lead to higher inflation or government defaults.

Almost $1 trillion of worldwide equity value was erased April 27 on concern that debt will spur defaults, derailing the global economy, data compiled by Bloomberg show. German Chancellor Angela Merkel and the International Monetary Fund pledged to step up efforts to overcome the Greek fiscal crisis, after bonds and stocks fell across Europe in the past week.

“The bond vigilantes are walking out on Greece, Spain, Portugal, the U.K. and Iceland,” Roubini, 52, said yesterday during a panel discussion on financial markets at the Milken Institute Global Conference in Beverly Hills, California. “Unfortunately in the U.S., the bond-market vigilantes are not walking out.”

Credit-rating cuts on Greece, Portugal and Spain this week are spurring investors’ concern that the European deficit crisis is spreading and intensifying pressure on policy makers to widen a bailout package. Roubini’s remarks underscore statements by officials such as Dominique Strauss-Kahn, managing director of the IMF, that the global economy still faces risks.

Sovereign Debt

“The thing I worry about is the buildup of sovereign debt,” said Roubini, a former adviser to the U.S. Treasury and IMF consultant, who in August 2006 predicted a “painful” U.S. recession that came to fruition in December 2007. If the problem isn’t addressed, he said, nations will either fail to meet obligations or see faster inflation as officials “monetize” their debts, or print money to tackle the shortfalls.

Roubini, who teaches at NYU’s Stern School of Business, told attendees at the Beverly Hilton hotel that “Greece is just the tip of the iceberg, or the canary in the coal mine for a much broader range of fiscal problems.”

European bonds have plunged on concern that Greece’s won’t be able to pay its debt, with Harvard University Professor Martin Feldstein and Templeton Asset Management Ltd.’s Mark Mobius saying a default may be needed. The yield on the Greek two-year bond rose as high as 26 percent after being downgraded to below-investment grade by Standard & Poor’s on April 27, before falling to 17.35 percent today. The euro, which dropped to the lowest in a year yesterday, rose 0.1 percent to $1.3235 at 4:05 p.m. in New York.

Plugging the Leak

Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou met today the heads of the largest private and public-sector unions as well as representatives from the biggest employer group as Greek, EU and IMF officials put the final touches on a package that will allow the country to tap emergency loans. Greece’s budget deficit was 13.6 percent of gross domestic product in 2009, more than four times the limit allowed under European Union rules.

“A default will help to plug the leak,” said Mobius, who oversees about $34 billion in emerging-market assets as executive chairman of Templeton Asset Management, in an interview with Bloomberg Television in Singapore today. “A bailout at this stage does not make sense to me.”

Feldstein wrote in an article published on the Project Syndicate website that the euro region and Greek bondholders will eventually have to accept that “the country is insolvent and cannot service its existing debt.””

Read the full article here.

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Here is an article from Yahoo.

“Greece was pushed to the brink of a financial abyss and started dragging another eurozone country — Portugal — down with it, fueling fears of a continent-wide debt meltdown.

Stocks around the world tanked after ratings agency Standard & Poor’s on Tuesday downgraded Greek bonds to junk status and downgraded Portugese bonds two notches, showing investors that Greece’s financial contagion is spreading.

Major European exchanges fell more than 2.5 percent, and on Wall Street, the Dow Jones industrial average finished down 213 points, or 1.9 percent. The euro slid more than 1 percent to nearly an eight-month low.

Asian stock markets tumbled in early trading Wednesday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 stock average shed 2.8 percent to 10,897.72, and South Korea’s Kospi lost 1.6 percent to 1,722.03. Australia’s benchmark retreated 1.8 percent to 4,792.90.

“We have the makings of a market crisis here,” said Neil Mackinnon, global macro strategist at VTB Capital.

Greece is struggling with massive debt, and with prospects for economic growth weak it could end up in default. Its 15 eurozone partners and the International Monetary Fund have tried to calm the markets with a euro45 billion rescue package, but it hasn’t worked.

Standard & Poor’s warned that holders of Greek debt could take large losses in any restructuring, but a greater worry is that Greece’s debt crisis is mushrooming to other debt-laden members of the eurozone.

One bailout can be dealt with but two will be stretching it, and there are fears that other weak economies could be pulled down in the Greek spiral — including Europe’s fifth-largest, Spain. Can Germany, Europe’s effective paymaster, continue to bail out the weaker members of the eurozone?

The crisis threatens to undermine the euro and make it harder and more expensive for all eurozone governments to borrow money.

It has also disrupted cooperation between eurozone governments, with Germany resisting the idea of bailing out Greece unless strict conditions are met.

Many investors think Greece will have enough money to avoid default in the coming weeks, but the future is cloudier.

Both Standard & Poor’s and the Greek finance ministry insisted that the country will have enough money to make the euro8.5 billion bond payments due on May 19.

Even if it does, Greece faces years of austerity with living standards sharply reduced. Standard & Poor’s warned that the Greek economy was unlikely to be as big as it was in 2008 for another decade.

Junk status sinks Greece’s hopes even deeper. Losing investment-grade status for its bonds means that Greece will have to pay higher costs to borrow if it taps debt markets again, and increases the chances that existing debt will have to be restructured.

“The latest developments mean that the chances of Greece solving this situation without restructuring its debts are now dim,” said Diego Iscaro, senior economist at IHS Global Insight.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel reiterated her position that Greece should first conclude the current negotiations with the IMF and the European Union about austerity measures for the coming years before receiving the international loan package.”

Read the full article here.

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By Tony Fish

Tony Fish is a member of Gerbsman Partners Board of Intellectual Capital and an International Technology Consultant

In the book “My Digital Footprint” eight business models were explored, this Viewpoint is an update to model 5. If the balance of value is not already in favour of web companies, as they barter free services for your privacy and data it soon will be, as they need more data to continue their growth and seek differentiation but are unable to offer more in return. The Viewpoint presents that there is now a continuous test on the consumer resolve for privacy, the unmarked boundaries of private and thresholds of liberty as web companies find routes to extract more information on you, without you realising.

Content Creation leads to Value Creation

In March 2010 Facebook was estimated to be worth $11.5bn, Twitter $1.4bn, Linkedin $1.3bn and Google $170bn. But why? In simple terms these web companies and many more like them, consist of millions of users creating and sharing large amounts of content which is subsequently monetised through advertising to create these public valuations.

Symbiotic Relationships

When studying the bonds and bridges between the users and these web companies, in the context of privacy, trust, identity, reputation and digital footprints, it clear that there are complex inter-dependencies. Indeed the relationship between the users and the web companies could even be described as symbiotic, as the users and web companies are mutually beneficial participants. The implied contract between web companies and their users is simple; they’ll provide users with free web services in exchange for “permission” to datamine and monetise the users “public” data via related advertising.

Constant Tension

However, there is a hidden cost of this seemingly beautiful symbiotic relationship, the more that users make “public” their data, the more they relinquish their privacy. It is this tension between the users desire to protect their privacy and limit their “public” data, that contrasts with the monetary needs of a web service business to access and liberate more of the users “private” data; that is constantly testing the symbiotic relationship.

Money Talks and Privacy Walks

Although this freemium model is working well during this Web 2.0 era, advertisers are seeking to maximise their ad budgets through improved targeting and behavioural advertising. A mechanism to make this happen is if web services can convince their users to either make public more personalised information or to unilaterally force through privacy policy changes. To do so might result in users abandoning the web service, to not do so might result in the advertisers spending their budgets elsewhere. For example Facebook has for sometime been changing their users’ privacy settings in order to test the users elasticity of acceptability. On more than one occasion users have protested so vehemently against the changes, ironically using Facebooks own Fan pages, that Facebook have rolled back the privacy settings, only for them to make smaller incremental privacy policy changes later on which the users then seemingly accept.

“Only recently Facebook unilaterally chose to remove its users’ ability to control who can see their own interests and personal information. Certain parts of users’ profiles, “including your current city, hometown, education and work, and likes and interests” will now be transformed into “connections,” meaning that they will be shared publicly. If you don’t want these parts of your profile to be made public, your only option is to delete them.” Source: OpenRightsGroup – 21.04.10

Facebook may have reached a tipping point where the potential value from forcing more openness, by unilateral changes to privacy, for user data outweighs the potential lose of users to an alternative.

Privacy Talks and Money Walks

Of course the fight to retain user privacy remains a tender point as proved by the recent introduction of Google Buzz and the scant disregard that Google placed on users privacy. The draconian way in which Google forced every GMail user to adopt Buzz was bad enough but to then set the privacy setting to “public” as a default meant that everyone’s email contacts where exposed publicly. Only a deafening outcry across the blogosphere and beyond led to Google publicly apologising for their faux pas and resetting the privacy policy of every user back to private as a default. Google’s monetisation of Buzz may take a lot longer now that users will be more cautious to open up their privacy settings. It is not difficult to comprehend that there is a balance between the amount of data that users will or can give up and the level of data that businesses demand for monetisation. For a symbiotic relationship to develop this balance between brand, trust, privacy, security, risk, identification and value needs to be understood and analysed. Fear, uncertainty and doubt go hand in hand with the erosion of privacy and liberty, get the balance wrong and the user will not give you data and the web business will not survive. Finding and pushing the balance is a new executive skill.

Adding value through social CRM

Companies, such as Kontagent, Klout, Gravity, Rapportive, Etacts, Grader and Flowtown are building analytical tools that track and interpret the way users behave on Facebook, Gmail and Twitter i.e the Public Interest Graph, particularly how they interact with third-party applications. Such analysis tools help figure out, for instance, which invitations lead to the most registrations and why. Collecting data is one thing, making it useful quite another and thatÕs the key challenge for every business in this digital era, indeed AMF Ventures would go as far as to say this is the next battle ground of the web.

Disruptive change to a status quo

A well published fact from the dark side of digital footprint data is that the invasion of liberty or privacy, snooping, identity fraud and the subsequent abuse of your data costs £25 per person in the UK Source: IdentityTheft.org Counter to this cost is the economic value created by user data, which is in the order of £100 per user. Market cap of Google (March 2010) divided across the number of users. Each user value will increase if Youtube, Facebook and other social media valuations are added to the equation. Your digital data has value Ð it is fragmented but users may realise that they don’t get a fair trade. The value created by them is far greater than the free service reward. Free may be good, free plus cash or share of an IPO for my privacy could be an alternative model for a new entrant who wants to cross the next boundary of user privacy, but at least there is an exchange value. This could leave those who want to hide their privacy having to pay, rather than free-riding.

The Way Forward

To help companies discover and make sense of the conflicting pressures AMF Ventures offers a 2 day workshop to deliver a digital footprint vision, who to trust and why, how to drive quality and value from relationships and an action plan based on a deep understanding of the complex balances.

A focussed workshop will help to improve understanding of your position and perspective and remove bias. The workshop will cover the following:

  • The bonds and bridges between privacy, risk and trust.
  • How much data is needed from your customers to create new and incremental value.
  • Where is the current privacy/ exploitation balance?
  • What metrics companies are using to track your Public Interest Graph (PIG) and brand sentiment?
  • What new Social CRM tools exist today to measure and manage social relationships externally and internally?
  • What is Social Graph Optimisation (SGO) and how are companies use it today to increase their valuation?
  • How your company can measure its Social CRM
  • What is Vendor Relationship Management (VRM) and how will it effect your future customer relationship strategy?

If you would like more information about the workshops or to chat about the opportunities that digital footprint data brings, especially from the perspective of mobile and real time feedback, please contact me at tony.fish@amfventures.com. The book is free on line at www.mydigitalfootprint.com or you can buy it direct from the publisher at the web site.

About Gerbsman Partners

Gerbsman Partners focuses on maximizing enterprise value for stakeholders and shareholders in under-performing, under-capitalized and under-valued companies and their Intellectual Property. Since 2001, Gerbsman Partners has been involved in maximizing value for 60 Technology, Life Science and Medical Device companies and their Intellectual Property,, through its proprietary “Date Certain M&A Process” and has restructured/terminated over $790 million of real estate executory contracts and equipment lease/sub-debt obligations. Since inception, Gerbsman Partners has been involved in over $2.3 billion of financings, restructurings and M&A transactions.

Gerbsman Partners has offices and strategic alliances in Boston, New York, Washington, DC, Alexandria, VA, San Francisco, Europe and Israel.

For additional information please visit www.gerbsmanpartners.com

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Here is some IPO news from SFgate.com

“Codexis Inc., a Redwood City startup that makes designer enzymes for pharmaceuticals and biofuel production, sold its shares for the first time Thursday on the Nasdaq exchange, the first of what could be a flurry of IPOs this year from Bay Area clean-tech companies.

Codexis shares opened at $13, the low end of the $13 to $15 range predicted by the company last week, and closed at $13.26. The initial public offering brought Codexis $78 million.

After a drought in clean-tech IPOs last year, several green companies have already announced their intention to go public, and many more are thought to be waiting in the wings. Codexis’ premiere, therefore, was closely watched in the industry, even as analysts cautioned against reading too much into it. One IPO isn’t enough to gauge investors’ appetite for clean-tech stocks.

“There’s definitely a hunger – I’m not sure that people are starving, though,” said Joel Makower, executive editor of GreenBiz.com. “There’s a lot of temptation to read into the first clean-tech IPO of the year, but I don’t think this tells us much.”

Tesla Motors, the Palo Alto maker of electric sports cars, has also announced its intention to go public. So has Amyris, a biofuel startup in Emeryville, and Solyndra, a Fremont firm whose solar panels look like fluorescent light tubes painted black. IPO rumors have swirled around BrightSource Energy in Oakland, which is developing large solar power plants in Southern California, and Redwood City’s Silver Spring Networks, which makes hardware and software for smarter electrical grids.

The pent-up interest in IPOs isn’t confined to clean-tech startups. Five other companies – with products ranging from software to pharmaceuticals – premiered Thursday, making it the busiest day for IPOs since November 2007.”

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Here is a piece from the Digits blog at wsj.com.

“Salesforce.com said Wednesday that it would pay at least $142 million to acquire lead-generation startup Jigsaw, the biggest acquisition to date for the online software company.

The move comes as companies throughout the industry gear up for a period of consolidation. Salesforce.com, which has made relatively few deals in its history, recently hired several mergers and acquisition specialists and in January raised $575 million in debt.

(The debt—and the notion that Salesforce was gearing up to make acquisitions—was the subject of a story in Tuesday’s Wall Street Journal.)

Salesforce has had its eye on Jigsaw for several years, but only got serious about a possible deal a few months ago, says Kendall Collins, Salesforce’s chief marketing officer. Jigsaw is basically a big database filled with contact information for potential customers. It’s “crowd sourced,” meaning users submit, update and fact check the information themselves. There’s already a version of Jigsaw that’s built on Salesforce’s systems and allows for contacts from Jigsaw to be easily copied into Salesforce’s sales-automation software.

Salesforce.com has been marketing itself as a “platform” that other companies can build applications on. Does buying one of these companies send a bad message that it will play favorites?”

Read the full article here.

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