A Blog from Gerbsman Partners Board of Intellectual Capital on “Maximizing Enterprise Value” for technology, life science, medical device and cleantech companies and their Intellectual Property
Update to “The Bidding Process, Procedures for Sale of Assets and Intellectual Property of Retina AI
Further to Gerbsman Partners sales letter of November 14, 2023 regarding the sale of Retina, Inc. I am attaching “Exhibit A Retina NDA”, a “Table of Contents” for Retiana Data Room due diligence information and a link below to a Retina power point presentation.
Please review the “Important Legal Notice” below in that potential purchasers should not rely on any information contained provided by Retina or Gerbsman Partners (or their respective staff, agents, and attorneys) in connection herewith, whether transmitted orally or in writing as a statement, opinion, or representation of fact. Interested parties should satisfy themselves through independent investigations as they or their legal and financial advisors see fit.
Ken, Eric and I will be following up to review the updated Bidding Process, schedule due diligence meetings and answer any questions regarding the “Date Certain M&A Process”.
Any and all the assets of Retina will be sold on an “as is, where is” basis and will be subject to “The Bidding Process for Interested Buyers”, outlined below.
Gerbsman Partners has been retained by Retina to solicit interest for the acquisition of all, or substantially all, the assets of Retina.
Retina is a venture-backed SaaS platform which has been utilized by Fortune 500 giants like Capital One and Nestle, leveraging Predictive Customer Value for Ad Optimization on Meta and Google Ads platforms.
Retina was founded in 2017 to develop a complete self-serve solution for predicting, understanding, and acting on future customer behavior. To date over $13 million dollars has been invested by top venture capital firms (Comcast Ventures, VVP, and AIC) to develop this proprietary technology to use Machine Learning and Generative AI to predict customer behavior.
The Retina founders have significant experience in building and commercializing machine learning products. One founder has been advisor to multiple $1B+ eComm enablement startups, crafted AI/ML product strategies that significantly boosted brand revenues through personalized customer journeys. Conducted impactful AI training sessions for over 75 CEOs and U.S. Congress members, demystifying Generative AI technology’s strategic implications.
The founders have 30+ years of combined experience in building SaaS platforms. Prior to Retina one founder was at PayPal and leveraged machine learning to unearth high-value customer segments. And at Meta, as the Head of Marketing Operations & Analytics, he pioneered revenue impact measurement tools.
The engineering founder led team at 5+ startups with three-successful outcomes. His leadership at Topaz Labs (deep learning-based photo-enhanced software used by Lucas Films, Amazon, and many others) led to product innovations, doubling company revenues. The founding team is educated in Physics, Computer Science and Business from MIT, RPI and UCLA.
The sale is being conducted with the cooperation of Retina.
IMPORTANT LEGAL NOTICE:
The information in this memorandum does not constitute the whole or any part of an offer or a contract.
The information contained in this memorandum relating to the Retina Assets has been supplied by Retina and has not been independently investigated or verified by Gerbsman Partners or their respective agents.
Potential purchasers should not rely on any information contained in this memorandum or provided by Gerbsman Partners, Retina (or their respective staff, agents, and attorneys) in connection herewith, whether transmitted orally or in writing (the “information”), as a statement, opinion, or representation of fact. Please further note that all information provided herein relating to the operations of Retina’s business and its market positions relates to periods on or prior to November, 2023. Interested parties should satisfy themselves through independent investigations as they or their legal and financial advisors see fit.
Gerbsman Partners Retina and their respective staff, agents, and attorneys, (i) disclaim any and all implied warranties concerning the truth, accuracy, and completeness of any information provided in connection herewith and (ii) do not accept liability for the information, including that contained in this memorandum, whether that liability arises by reasons of Gerbsman Partners’ negligence or otherwise.
Any sale of Retina’s assets will be made on an “as-is,” “where-is,” and “with all faults” basis, without any warranties, representations, or guarantees, either express or implied, of any kind, nature, or type whatsoever from, or on behalf of, Retina or Gerbsman Partners. Without limiting the generality of the foregoing, Gerbsman Partners, Retina and their respective staff, agents, and attorneys, hereby expressly disclaim any and all implied warranties concerning the condition of the Retina and any portions thereof, including, but not limited to, environmental conditions, compliance with any government regulations or requirements, the implied warranties of habitability, merchantability, or fitness for a particular purpose.
This memorandum contains confidential information and is not to be supplied to any person without Gerbsman Partners’ prior consent. This memorandum and the information contained herein are subject to the non-disclosure agreement attached hereto in Exhibit A.
Bidding Process for Interested Buyers
Interested and qualified parties will be expected to sign a nondisclosure agreement (attached hereto as Attachment A) to have access to key members of the management and intellectual capital teams and the due diligence “war room” documentation (the “Due Diligence Access”). Each interested party, as a consequence of the Due Diligence Access granted to it, shall be deemed to acknowledge and represent (i) that it is bound by the bidding procedures described herein; (ii) that it has an opportunity to inspect and examine the Retina ai asset information and to review all pertinent documents and information with respect thereto; (iii) that it is not relying upon any written or oral statements, representations, or warranties of Gerbsman Partners or Retina ai, or their respective staff, agents, or attorneys; and (iv) all such documents and reports have been provided solely for the convenience of the interested party, and Retina ai and Gerbsman Partners (and their respective, staff, agents, or attorneys) do not make any representations as to the accuracy or completeness of the same.
Following an initial round of due diligence, interested parties will be invited to participate with a sealed bid, for the acquisition of the Retina ai intellectual property and assets. Sealed bids must be submitted so that they are actually received by Gerbsman Partners no later than Monday , December 18, 2023 at 3:00 p.m. Pacific Time (the “Bid Deadline”) at Retina’s office 231 Avenue D, Redondo Beach, CA. Please also email steve@gerbsmanpartners.com with any bid.
Any person or other entity making a bid must be prepared to provide independent confirmation that they possess the financial resources to complete the purchase where applicable. All bids must be accompanied by a refundable deposit check in the amount of $200,000 (the refundable deposit will be held in Retina AI’s legal counsel trust account). The winning bidder will be notified within 3 business days of the Bid Deadline. Unsuccessful bidders will have their deposits returned to them within 3 business days of notification that they are an unsuccessful bidder.
Retina AI reserves the right to, in its sole discretion, accept or reject any bid, or withdraw any or all of the assets from sale. Interested parties should understand that it is expected that the highest and best bid submitted will be chosen as the winning bidder and bidders may not have the opportunity to improve their bids after submission.
Retina ai will require the successful bidder to close within a 7-day period. The intellectual property and assets of Retina ai will be sold on an “as is, where is” basis, with no representation or warranties whatsoever.
All sales, transfer, and recording taxes, stamp taxes, or similar taxes, if any, relating to the sale of the Retina ai intellectual property and assets shall be the sole responsibility of the successful bidder.
For additional information, please see below and/or contact:
Sale of Retina – its assets and intellectual property
Gerbsman Partners – http://gerbsmanpartners.com has been retained by Retina https://retina.ai/ to solicit interest for the acquisition of all or substantially all of Retina’s assets, including its Intellectual Property (“IP”), in whole or in part (collectively, the “Retina Assets”).
Retina is a venture-backed SaaS platform which has been utilized by Fortune 500 giants like Capital One and Nestle, leveraging Predictive Customer Value for Ad Optimization on Meta and Google Ads platforms.
Retina was founded in 2017 to develop a complete self-serve solution for predicting, understanding, and acting on future customer behavior. To date over $13 million dollars has been invested by top venture capital firms (Comcast Ventures, VVP, and AIC) to develop this proprietary technology to use Machine Learning and Generative AI to predict customer behavior.
The Retina founders have significant experience in building and commercializing machine learning products. One founder has been advisor to multiple $1B+ eComm enablement startups, crafted AI/ML product strategies that significantly boosted brand revenues through personalized customer journeys. Conducted impactful AI training sessions for over 75 CEOs and U.S. Congress members, demystifying Generative AI technology’s strategic implications.
The founders have 30+ years of combined experience in building SaaS platforms. Prior to Retina one founder was at PayPal and leveraged machine learning to unearth high-value customer segments. And at Meta, as the Head of Marketing Operations & Analytics, he pioneered revenue impact measurement tools.
The engineering founder led team at 5+ startups with three-successful outcomes. His leadership at Topaz Labs (deep learning-based photo-enhanced software used by Lucas Films, Amazon, and many others) led to product innovations, doubling company revenues. The founding team is educated in Physics, Computer Science and Business from MIT, RPI and UCLA.
IMPORTANT LEGAL NOTICE:
The information in this memorandum does not constitute the whole or any part of an offer or a contract.
The information contained in this memorandum relating to the Retina Assets has been supplied by Retina and has not been independently investigated or verified by Gerbsman Partners or their respective agents.
Potential purchasers should not rely on any information contained in this memorandum or provided by Gerbsman Partners, Retina (or their respective staff, agents, and attorneys) in connection herewith, whether transmitted orally or in writing (the “information”), as a statement, opinion, or representation of fact. Please further note that all information provided herein relating to the operations of Retina’s business and its market positions relates to periods on or prior to November, 2023. Interested parties should satisfy themselves through independent investigations as they or their legal and financial advisors see fit.
Gerbsman Partners Retina and their respective staff, agents, and attorneys, (i) disclaim any and all implied warranties concerning the truth, accuracy, and completeness of any information provided in connection herewith and (ii) do not accept liability for the information, including that contained in this memorandum, whether that liability arises by reasons of Gerbsman Partners’ negligence or otherwise.
Any sale of Retina’s assets will be made on an “as-is,” “where-is,” and “with all faults” basis, without any warranties, representations, or guarantees, either express or implied, of any kind, nature, or type whatsoever from, or on behalf of, Retina or Gerbsman Partners. Without limiting the generality of the foregoing, Gerbsman Partners, Retina and their respective staff, agents, and attorneys, hereby expressly disclaim any and all implied warranties concerning the condition of the Retina and any portions thereof, including, but not limited to, environmental conditions, compliance with any government regulations or requirements, the implied warranties of habitability, merchantability, or fitness for a particular purpose.
This memorandum contains confidential information and is not to be supplied to any person without Gerbsman Partners’ prior consent. This memorandum and the information contained herein are subject to the non-disclosure agreement attached hereto in Exhibit A.
Summary of Historical Retina information
Retina AI, since its inception in 2017, has established itself as a leader in the field of predictive analytics, specifically focusing on customer lifetime value (CLV). The company’s journey began with a vision to harness the power of data to predict the future value of customers accurately. This innovative approach stemmed from the realization that companies, particularly in the e-commerce sector, were often unable to distinguish between profitable and unprofitable customers, leading to inefficient marketing spend and lost opportunities.
Leadership and Team:
The company’s foundation and growth can be attributed to its robust leadership team, spearheaded by CEO and Co-Founder Emad Hasan. Emad’s background includes a rich blend of engineering and marketing experience, with notable tenures at Meta and PayPal. Complementing his efforts, Co-Founder and CTO Brad Ito, with his extensive experience in MarTech and AdTech, has been instrumental in shaping the company’s technological advancements.
Innovative Technology and Growth:
Retina’s rise in the predictive analytics space is marked by its “proprietary algorithm”, which accurately predicts individual customer lifetime value. This technology stands at the heart of Retina’s offerings, enabling businesses to optimize their marketing strategies and ad campaigns with unprecedented precision.
Market Impact and Adoption:
The introduction of Retina’s “Day 0” predictive lifetime value platform marked a significant shift in how businesses approach customer data. This innovation offered companies a lens through which they could view their customer base, not just as a monolithic entity but as a diverse collection of individuals with varying potential for long-term value. This shift has enabled businesses to focus their efforts on high-lifetime-value customers, thereby optimizing their ad campaigns and significantly improving the CLV to Customer Acquisition Cost (CAC) ratio.
Revolutionizing Customer Acquisition:
One of the core features of Retina’s platform is CLV-based ad optimization. This feature has proven to be a game-changer for businesses, particularly in the e-commerce domain. By harnessing the power of predictive analytics, Retina’s clients have seen dramatic improvements in their marketing efficiency, including a 3x higher LTV to CAC ratio, 49% higher Return on Ad Spend (ROAS), and a reduction in CAC by 25-30%.These metrics underscore the transformative impact that Retina’s platform has had on the market.
Expansion and Versatility:
While Retina’s initial focus was on e-commerce, the potential applications of its technology extend far beyond. Its generic and adaptable nature makes it suitable for various industries, including traditional gaming, casinos, ticketing, and other non-e-commerce brands.
Looking Ahead:
As the company looks to the future, it stands on the brink of new opportunities and challenges, poised to redefine the landscape of predictive analytics and customer lifetime value optimization.
In summary, Retina represents a new wave of data-driven decision-making in marketing, where understanding and predicting customer value are central to achieving sustainable and profitable growth. The company’s pioneering technology, combined with its visionary leadership and proven market impact, positions it as a key player in the evolving world of data analytics and customer relationship management.
Target Market:
Defining the Landscape:
Retina’s target market is both diverse and expansive, encompassing a wide range of industries and sectors. The primary focus has been on Retailers and eCommerce brands, where the application of predictive analytics and customer lifetime value is most acute.
E-Commerce and Retail:
Within the eCommerce space, Retina’s solutions are particularly beneficial for companies striving to optimize their marketing efforts in an increasingly competitive digital landscape. These businesses, often dealing with high volumes of customer data, require a sophisticated approach to segment customers based on their predicted lifetime value. By leveraging Retina’s predictive analytics platform, these companies can effectively allocate resources, personalize customer engagement strategies, and drive higher profitability.
This is especially crucial for Small and Medium Businesses (SMBs) operating on platforms like Shopify, where Retina’s solutions enable them to build robust data analytics capabilities with minimal infrastructure.
Beyond E-Commerce:
Retina’s target market extends beyond e-commerce into non-traditional sectors that are equally reliant on understanding customer behavior and value. This includes industries like FinTech, where customer acquisition and retention are pivotal for growth and success. Similarly, in the gaming and entertainment sectors, where customer engagement and lifetime value are key metrics for success,
Membership-Driven Organizations:
Another significant segment for Retina includes membership-driven organizations, where understanding the lifetime value of members is essential for long-term sustainability and growth. These organizations can leverage Retina’s predictive analytics to tailor their services, optimize member acquisition costs, and enhance member engagement strategies.
Potential Untapped Markets:
Looking at the future, Retina has the potential to tap into markets that are currently under-served in terms of advanced data analytics. This includes traditional industries like healthcare, where patient engagement and value prediction can revolutionize service delivery models. Similarly, in sectors like insurance and banking, where customer risk and value assessment are critical, Retina’s predictive models can provide a competitive edge.
Customers:
Diverse and High-Value Clientele:
Retina’s customer base is a rich tapestry of high-profile businesses and institutions, reflective of its robust and versatile analytics platform. The company’s clientele spans across several key sectors, with a strong presence in eCommerce and Retail, but also extending to FinTech, gaming, and membership-driven organizations.
E-Commerce and Retail Giants:
In the realm of eCommerce and Retail, Retina has forged strong relationships with significant players. These include large-scale online retailers and SMBs on platforms like Shopify, who leverage Retina’s platform for data-driven marketing strategies. The company’s predictive analytics tools allow these businesses to gain deeper insights into customer behavior, enabling them to make informed decisions about marketing spend, product development, and customer engagement strategies.
Strategic Partnerships and Collaborations:
Retina’s strategic partnerships, such as those with Experian and Yodlee, further cement its position as a leader in customer data analytics. These collaborations have not only expanded Retina’s reach but have also enriched its data pool, enhancing the accuracy and effectiveness of its predictive models.
Success Stories and Transformative Impact:
Retina’s impact is most vividly illustrated through its client success stories. For instance, Retina’s collaboration with Born Primitive, an athletic apparel company, exemplifies its ability to turn around business performance. Before partnering with Retina, Born Primitive faced rising customer acquisition costs and challenges in adapting to market changes. Utilizing Retina’s optimization tools, the company saw significant improvements in customer acquisition costs, average order values, and conversion rates.
Nestle’s Toll House team, another notable client, collaborated with Retina to understand and meet customer needs better. The insights provided by Retina’s tools helped Toll House to improve customer loyalty and define more accurate CPA targets for their campaigns.
Other clients like Earthling Co. and Liquid IV have also seen remarkable improvements in their marketing efficiency, with enhanced Return on Ad Spend (ROAS) and lower Customer Acquisition Costs (CAC), further attesting to Retina’s ability to drive business growth through data-driven insights.
Intellectual Property
Retina AI has built a substantial amount of intellectual property (IP) in the form of trade secrets and know-how. This is divided into the IP generated for the primary Retina AI brand – with a platform for predictive customer lifetime value and it’s uses, and the IP generated more recently for the DBA Novex AI – which provides novel solutions for Generative AI.
Novex AI IP includes:
domain: novex.ai
leads:
webinars run by Emad ~ 100+ signups
Projects:
parallel-parrot
LLM task automation for data engineers and data scientists
massively parallel API calls and handling of throttling
pandas dataframe interface
chatbot-confidential
private knowledge chatbot with no data sent to cloud and no API calls made to the cloud
CSV upload module includes self-service data analytics on the data being uploaded, to reduce chances of uploading the wrong data. Also supports file sizes up to 160GB.
Competitive Intelligence – benchmark reports that can be used to compare your business’s performance to competitors (uses above purchased transaction-level data, and applies our CLV predictions)
Data Explorer – self-service business intelligence with pre-built analyses of customers in terms of CLV.
CLV Impact – fully automated per-feature analysis of which customer features result in higher or lower CLV. Creates actionable insights without any analyst effort. Also permits drill-down and customization for those looking for deeper analysis.
CLV Cohorts – “Triangle Chart” – showing CLV actuals vs predictions at various time horizons
Weekly email notifications with CLV-related insights on customer behavior
Automated Quality of Customer (QoC) reports. Management-consultant/board – level analysis generated automatically from first-party customer data
Marketing audience generation with CLV and feature-based rules, automatically maintained in Google and Facebook
Low-latency CLV-based Ads optimization for Facebook Ads and Google Ads
Permits live optimization of ad campaigns on predicted CLV – instead of just purchase amount.
Proprietary algorithm for emphasizing CLV impact to the API
Proprietary process for adjusting for signal-loss due to lack of customer identity matching (industry changes and new data compliance)
Automated monitoring
Product – Other
Rapid prototype “Retina Portal” for permitting data scientists to launch interactive demos that are still controlled behind a per-client login
Retina Go – sales accelerator for data science products. Self-service CSV upload (with in-app data correction) to model and insight outputs
Retina Upload Portal – used to collect arbitrary data files from a client in a protected manner (uploads to S3, properly labeled), suitable for data processing by the internal team
auto-slides – automatic Google Slides presentation module
company bytes – pre-canned CLV, customer churn, and competitive analysis with “zero data” (uses above purchased transaction-level data) – used to accelerate sales
customer personas – single-page analysis that explains the major types of customers for a single ecommerce brand – using the models we use for CLV
customer journey maps – data-driven dynamic visualization of how different customer purchase journeys impact CLV and churn
Data Science automated analysis:
Early Value Driver – which customer features most impact customer spend in the first X days
Growth Accounting – how is customer base growing on shrinking
Why the Retina Assets and IP are attractive
The Retina.ai Brand:
Retina’s intellectual property begins with the highly recognizable and SEO-optimized domain name, retina.ai. This domain not only ranks high for customer lifetime value-related keywords but also serves as a central hub for our authoritative “CLV Academy” content, including insightful blog posts, case studies, sales materials, and training resources.
The brand’s digital presence has been meticulously developed to establish Retina as a thought leader and trusted educator in the space of predictive analytics, making it a valuable asset for any potential buyer seeking to maintain or enhance a competitive edge in the market.
Sales Lead Database:
The company boasts a comprehensive sales lead database, featuring over 46,000 contacts managed within Hubspot. This database is a goldmine for sales and marketing efforts, offering a ready-to-use reservoir of potential leads that have been curated and nurtured over time. The depth and quality of this data are unmatched, providing a solid foundation for continued growth and customer acquisition.
Transactional-Level Data Acquisition:
A cornerstone of Retina’s IP is the transaction-level data, which includes anonymized, detailed credit card transactions of U.S. consumers up to December 2022. This extensive dataset provides invaluable insights into consumer spending behaviors and trends, allowing for sophisticated analysis and predictive modeling. It’s a strategic asset for businesses looking to make data-driven decisions with confidence.
Predictive CLV Model:
At the heart of Retina’s innovation lies its predictive Customer Lifetime Value model, which boasts an impressive 90-95% accuracy for future CLV predictions based on data known at the time of the first purchase.
The model is split into two parts:
The Transactional CLV Model, which enhances open-source models with proprietary developments. These enhancements are designed to handle large datasets typical of major e-commerce retailers, optimized computational performance, and reliable model outputs even when dealing with complex customer purchase behaviors.
The Early CLV Model utilizes the Generalized Low Rank Model (GLRM), a complete proprietary implementation capable of handling the messy, intricate data typical of marketing and e-commerce. This model is optimized for predictive accuracy and operational efficiency, even on large datasets, and includes innovative algorithms like the David-Yin Splitting Algorithm and Alternating Directory Method of Multipliers.
Self-Service Enterprise SaaS Platform:
Retina’s Self-Service Enterprise SaaS platform stands as a testament to the company’s commitment to innovation and user empowerment. With connectors for various marketing and sales platforms, and a CSV upload module that supports files up to 160GB, the platform is designed for scalability and adaptability. Its competitive intelligence and data explorer tools provide businesses with benchmark reports and self-service business intelligence, empowering them to make strategic decisions based on robust analytics.
Marketing and Sales Optimization Tools:
Retina’s suite of marketing and sales tools, such as automated Quality of Customer reports and CLV-based Ads optimization, streamline and enhance the efficacy of marketing campaigns across platforms like Facebook and Google Ads.
Conclusion:
In sum, Retina AI’s intellectual property is:
A comprehensive suite of tools, models, and data assets that together form a powerful platform for any business looking to excel in the realm of predictive analytics and data-driven marketing.
The proprietary nature of these assets, combined with their proven effectiveness and adaptability, makes Retina’s IP a highly attractive proposition for potential buyers. It’s not just a collection of tools; it’s a gateway to understanding and leveraging customer value on an unprecedented scale.
The acquisition of Retina’s IP would provide a strategic advantage to any company seeking to innovate, grow, and lead in the rapidly evolving landscape of customer data analytics.
Management Team at Retina AI Inc (for information purposes only)
EMAD HASAN
Emad Hasan kicked off his career as an engineer, constructing autopilot systems for the presidential helicopter’s next generation and building guidance and navigation systems for satellites at Boeing.
A pivot in his career took him to business school, followed by two years in management consulting. Emad then shifted gears, taking on the role of Analytics Product Manager at PayPal, where he crafted unsupervised ML algorithms for Customer Segmentation and anomaly detection. His work extended to Merchant Analytics, scrutinizing data for all merchant payment processing.
A two-year stint at Facebook (now Meta) allowed Emad to run marketing ops for the ads side of the business.
BRAD ITO
Brad Ito is a seasoned engineering executive and a master of innovation in the realm of data science. As the head of engineering and data science at Retina AI, Brad leads a dynamic team dedicated to advancing the company’s groundbreaking predictive analytics platform. His extensive experience and robust educational background, including a Bachelor’s in Physics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), have established him as a vanguard in the engineering community.
Brad had tenure at Topaz Labs, ScaleFunder/Ruffalo Noel Levitz, Walla Media, and Griffith Park Media has imbued him with unparalleled expertise in engineering management, technical project management, technology architecture, and data engineering.
Brad’s technical acumen is vast and comprehensive, encompassing database administration, DevOps, marketing technology, and IT security. His proficiency in cloud computing is evidenced by his deep knowledge of AWS and Azure.
A Linux enthusiast, Brad is equally comfortable working with on-premise servers and cloud-based environments, ensuring robust and secure systems architecture. His proficiency extends to a variety of databases and data processing frameworks, including Redshift, Snowflake, MySQL/MariaDB, Postgres, SQL Server, ElasticSearch, and Spark, among others.
In the web development domain, Brad is well-versed in both front-end and back-end technologies. His experience with Angular, React, Vue.js, Nuxt.js, Express.js, Koa.js, Node.js, Pyramid, and FastAPI reflects his ability to manage full-stack development projects with precision and creativity.
Brad’s programming language repertoire is extensive, including proficiency in Python, R, JavaScript, Typescript, PHP, Java, C++, and Perl. He also possesses knowledge of Ruby, Go, and Rust, showcasing his commitment to staying abreast of emerging technologies and programming paradigm
Bidding Process for Interested Buyers
Interested and qualified parties will be expected to sign a nondisclosure agreement (attached hereto as Attachment A) to have access to key members of the management and intellectual capital teams and the due diligence “war room” documentation (the “Due Diligence Access”). Each interested party, as a consequence of the Due Diligence Access granted to it, shall be deemed to acknowledge and represent (i) that it is bound by the bidding procedures described herein; (ii) that it has an opportunity to inspect and examine the Retina ai asset information and to review all pertinent documents and information with respect thereto; (iii) that it is not relying upon any written or oral statements, representations, or warranties of Gerbsman Partners or Retina ai, or their respective staff, agents, or attorneys; and (iv) all such documents and reports have been provided solely for the convenience of the interested party, and Retina ai and Gerbsman Partners (and their respective, staff, agents, or attorneys) do not make any representations as to the accuracy or completeness of the same.
Following an initial round of due diligence, interested parties will be invited to participate with a sealed bid, for the acquisition of the Retina ai intellectual property and assets. Sealed bids must be submitted so that they are actually received by Gerbsman Partners no later than Monday , December 18, 2023 at 3:00 p.m. Pacific Time (the “Bid Deadline”) at Gerbsman Partners office, located at 211 Laurel Grove Avenue, Kentfield, CA 94904. Please also email steve@gerbsmanpartners.com with any bid.
Any person or other entity making a bid must be prepared to provide independent confirmation that they possess the financial resources to complete the purchase where applicable. All bids must be accompanied by a refundable deposit check in the amount of $200,000 (the refundable deposit will be held in Retina AI’s legal counsel trust account). The winning bidder will be notified within 3 business days of the Bid Deadline. Unsuccessful bidders will have their deposits returned to them within 3 business days of notification that they are an unsuccessful bidder.
Retina AI reserves the right to, in its sole discretion, accept or reject any bid, or withdraw any or all of the assets from sale. Interested parties should understand that it is expected that the highest and best bid submitted will be chosen as the winning bidder and bidders may not have the opportunity to improve their bids after submission.
Retina ai will require the successful bidder to close within a 7-day period. The intellectual property and assets of Retina ai will be sold on an “as is, where is” basis, with no representation or warranties whatsoever.
All sales, transfer, and recording taxes, stamp taxes, or similar taxes, if any, relating to the sale of the Retina ai intellectual property and assets shall be the sole responsibility of the successful bidder.
For additional information, please see below and/or contact:
As we begin Veterans Day/Week 2023, we say “Thank You” to the men and woman of our armed services and suggest that it is time for all to “step up” and find ways to support our Veterans. To often we say “thank you for your service” and then do nothing more. Please think about supporting various Veterans groups with donations, food, clothing and moral support. They have “Earned” it and we “Owe” it to them.
In the late summer of 1967, I was on my way back to Basic Training at Fort Dix, N.J. I was in New York City and an older couple came up to me and said “Thank You” for serving and then gave me $ 20 to enjoy a dinner on them. The gentleman said he served in the Korean War and understands and appreciates what men and woman in uniform go through. I said thank you, enjoyed a great dinner and to this day, remember their kind gesture.
On this Veterans Day/Week, our family will support the Special Forces Wounded Warriors program and will provide moral support and friendship to Veterans. On 11/11/23, I will also continue to remember that couple and honor them by buying dinner for soldiers in uniform. I will ask them to do the same thing, 5, 10, 20 and 40 years later.
May God Bless our troops and provide our leaders with the courage and strength to do what is Right and what is Just.
Please always remember – FREEDOM IS NOT FREE and in a Democracy please respect all sides and opinions. What are YOU doing to HELP?
With “HONOR AND RESPECT” – Steve Gerbsman
1LT Steven R Gerbsman 2 Bn 104 Arty NYNG – Honorable Discharge June 1972
Debt CatharsisBy John Mauldin | Oct 28, 2023“Fiendishly Hard”We Owe It to OurselvesDebt FixersTough CompromiseWe Need a Better ModelDallas, Austin, and Old FriendsThe ancient Greeks had a word κάθαρσις, which in English we now spell as “catharsis,” although it’s pronounced basically the same. It originally referred to purifying religious ceremonies, medical treatments, and so on.Aristotle was the first we know to have used the word in a non-physical sense. He compared the emotions felt by spectators of Greek tragedy to a bodily catharsis. Tension builds until the audience feels the same intense emotions actors portray on stage. All this is released at a climactic moment, called the catharsis.Our modern-day debt situation is a kind of Greek tragedy. A dramatic tension is certainly building. But a catharsis will come only when we, the audience, all become part of the story. We have to feel it. As of now, most of us aren’t.After last week’s Supercycle of Debt letter I had a nice email conversation with the now-retired Martin Barnes, who as editor of The Bank Credit Analyst helped develop the debt supercycle theory. He believes the cycle changed after 2008 when focus shifted from the private sector to government. Martin expects markets to force a resolution, but not for a few more years.On one level, delay is good. It gives us more time to prepare. The problem is “a few more years” will bring us to the late 2020s/early 2030s when the other cycles we’ve discussed (especially Neil Howe’s Fourth Turning but all the others as well) will be near their peaks, intensifying the pain.Now, we could avoid that by getting the government debt under control sooner. That’s extremely difficult, though. Today I will show you why.Fiendishly HardI have tried in various ways over the years to explain how balancing the budget, which sounds like it should be easy, is fiendishly hard—to the point even “fiscal conservatives” have mainly given up trying. They want to do it with mostly cuts in spending and progressives want to do it with mainly increased taxes. Inability to compromise (on both sides) means everyone just looks for ways to keep it from getting worse. And usually fails. There IS a middle group that would do both (basically the Problem Solvers Caucus in the House launched in 2017, part of the No Labels movement, but they are 20% of Congress).Here’s a graphic I think shows the problem. You see the different categories of tax revenue flowing in on the left and then spending categories on the right. The yellow portion of the middle bar—where there is spending but no revenue to cover it—represents the deficit.(By the way, don’t quibble with the precise numbers shown. Their relative size is what counts. These numbers change slightly all the time. And after adjusting for the recent student loan rulings, my sources say the deficit is over $2 trillion! Lots of ways to look at this and play with the numbers.) Source: The Kobeissi LetterEliminating the annual deficit—a necessary step to reducing debt growth—requires some combination of higher revenue and lower spending. And I stress “combination” because we simply aren’t going to do it with just tax increases or just spending cuts. Much of the spending is functionally off-limits, at least in the near term. Social Security and Medicare reforms might save some money over time, but they won’t do it next year. Net interest is untouchable. And is now a good time for defense cuts? Probably not.Higher revenues are elusive, too. On paper, it may look like raising individual and corporate tax rates would close much of the gap. But not if it triggers a recession. And even without recession, taxpayers (wealthy or not) can modify their behavior. The wrong kind of tax changes could actually reduce revenue and enlarge the deficit. This has happened in the past. Incentives matter.We Owe It to OurselvesIn less than four years total US debt will be north of $40 trillion. At 3% interest that is $1.2 trillion a year of interest payments, and at 4% that would be $1.6 trillion. Of course, debt that is owned by various government agencies of the Fed end up paying that interest to the government, so everyone focuses on net interest. Perhaps it is time to do a sidebar and talk about what I feel is the silliness of talking about debt held by the public as if that is all that matters.First, let’s look at the official total US debt data from the Treasury. Source: US Treasury DepartmentThe debt is now $33.7 trillion according to the wonderful data mavens at USdebtclock.org, or 124.4% of GDP. That number closely matches the official debt from Treasury when measured in real time. (You can see it at the top of the page on the link to the official Treasury website.)Many economists prefer to talk about “debt held by the public,” now roughly $26 trillion, which is by definition smaller, and I assume they feel not as scary?Debt held by the public “consists of all national debt held by any person or entity that is not a US federal government agency.” The publicly held debt does NOT include the $7 trillion that the government owes to itself, such as money diverted by Congress from the Social Security trust funds.
The federal government does not have a legal obligation to pay Social Security or other government benefits. These aren’t legal liabilities; they are simply political promises. I don’t doubt the government will by and large honor Social Security payments, but I am willing to bet that the terms of those payments will change. They can do things like increase the retirement age, means test benefits, and change the inflation adjustment formula.The CBO projects that the (currently depleting) Social Security “Trust Fund” will be empty as of 2033. Some analysts say much sooner. Under current law, benefits would then fall to whatever payroll tax revenue allows and everybody (I assume) would get a pro rata cut. The next graph shows what Treasury thinks that will look like. Source: US TreasuryThat amounts to a 23% decrease in benefits across the board to the then 70 million recipients.There will of course be new legislation enacted to fix this. But it should remind us that debt “owned by the government” still has to be paid, if we are going to honor our Social Security and pension commitments. Not to mention trillions in other unfunded liabilities not in the budget or part of the official debt.No other country I know of analyzes its debt in terms of “owned by the public.” I think it is safe to say that retirees who gets Social Security, government pensions, Medicare, and so forth consider those to be debts owed to them, whether or not the government “technically” has an obligation to pay them.Again, future congresses can do whatever they want to do. They could (and I think will) alter the terms of the commitments. But that is only going to happen with a lot of weeping and wailing and gnashing of teeth. And probably tax increases as well.Now back to our original plot line.Debt Fixers“Balancing” the budget is a good term because it really is a balancing act. Congress has thousands of knobs it can turn to adjust different tax and spending provisions. Some have little impact while others have gigantic consequences. In theory, the right combination of changes would balance the budget. In practice, it’s not that easy.To illustrate, I’ll use an interesting online “Debt Fixer” from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. It is a simulation that lets you choose from a long menu of spending and tax changes, then shows you how it changes the debt outlook over the next 10 years. It has limitations but is still useful, for today’s exercise, in framing the challenge.My main critique of their models is that they: 1) offer static fixed solutions rather than allowing a sliding scale on spending cuts and taxes and 2) is not dynamic. It assumes, for instance, a 50% increase in income taxes will produce an actual 50% increase in revenue. That is certainly not the case.I should also note CRFB’s tool defines “success” as stabilizing the debt (held by the public, which is already somewhat misleading) at 98% of GDP by 2033 and on track for 60% by 2050. That would be an improvement but still too much, in my opinion. As you’ll see, though, passing even that low bar will require big, painful changes.Can we stabilize the debt by only raising taxes or only cutting spending? If so, how?We’ll start on the tax side. I went into the Debt Fixer, ignored the spending options and checked off every possible tax increase. Result? Over 10 years it would raise $13.7 trillion more than current law, bringing the 2033 debt down to 80% of GDP and 58% of GDP in 2050.Now, would raising taxes really do that? Probably not. The simulation achieves this only by, among other things…Repealing the 2017 tax cuts (not dynamic, but theoretically saves $850 billion)Applying the 12.4% Social Security Taxes on incomes over $250,000, which has the effect of raising total Federal income taxes to well over 55% (including Medicare). Then add state and local taxes to your tax bill. Some wealthy state residents would be paying an actual 70% in total taxes. Think that will change behavior? But it does raise over $1.5 trillion by 2033. Raising total payroll taxes by 1% raises $670 billion.Raising capital gains and dividend taxes (this option would tax capital gains and dividends as ordinary income for taxpayers with more than $1 million of income. The maximum rate would be 37 percent (40.8 percent including the NIIT). It would also tax unrealized capital gains at death, with an exemption of $5 million per person.Levying a wealth tax on ultra-millionaires (an annual wealth tax of 2 percent on all net worth above $50 million and a 3 percent wealth tax on all net worth above $1 billion)Limiting or eliminating many popular deductions (Mortgage interest deductions “cost” $330 billion. Eliminating state and local tax deductions would save $1.5 trillion. It goes on and on. Much weeping and wailing ensues!)Enacting a financial transactions tax (0.1%) and a carbon tax ($1.85 trillion)Imposing a 5% nationwide value-added tax on most retail sales ($2.5 trillion)You can look at the other revenue increase options. Just ugly. No good choices, but we are going to have to make some choices, no matter how ugly.Any of those tax changes alone would have major economic effects. All of them at once would certainly trigger recession. (Note: If you do the simulation and want to see the underlying assumptions, click on the very small circle with an “I” in it next to the choice.)Next, I tried the opposite approach: No tax increases but cutting spending every way possible.Here are some of the biggest changes:Devolve K-12 education to the states.Repeal Biden’s student debt cancellation plan.Limit annual defense and nondefense spending growth to 1%.Means-test certain veterans benefits.Raise Social Security full retirement age to 70Means-test Social Security benefits for high-earning seniors.Replace Obamacare with state grants.Replace Medicaid with block grants.Require states cover 25% of food stamp costs.Expand Medicaid work requirements.Eliminate farm subsidies.Reduce federal worker retirement benefits.There are more.Some of these are pretty harsh. The entire package, if enacted, would reduce debt to 90% of GDP in 2033 and 76% in 2050 (again, with a bunch of assumptions). Savings in the first 10 years would total $7.8 trillion.But as with tax changes, what would really happen? These changes would have big effects on some large industries, including healthcare and agriculture. That would have economic consequences and probably reduce tax revenue. How it would all settle out is hard to say.Tough CompromiseSo, for different reasons it looks like we will need both spending cuts and tax increases to solve the problem. Is there a politically feasible middle-ground plan that would work?I went through the debt fixer a third time, trying to imagine what changes could actually pass Congress as part of a grand bargain. Frankly, I think that’s the only hope. Any piecemeal approach would be sliced to pieces. They will have to hold hands and jump together.So, thinking about which provisions each party might accept, I went through the options and picked what I could. As expected, it was difficult. My first pass didn’t even come close. I went back and reconsidered the changes I initially rejected. That was even more difficult. Anyone walking by my office at that moment would have heard my frustration. The only consolation was in choosing some things I knew my Democratic friends would hate, too.My final compromise—and that’s very much what it is—would reduce the debt to 89% of GDP in 2033 and 59% in 2050. Some highlights:Raise gasoline tax 15 cents per gallon, then index it to inflation.Limit defense and non-defense spending growth to 1%.Raise Social Security full retirement age to 70 for workers born in 1978 or after.Raise the payroll tax rate by 1%.Subject earnings over $250,000 to payroll tax (This is truly draconian. And a very bad choice. I prefer consumption taxes!)Means-test benefits for high-earning seniors.Increase Medicare premiums for all beneficiaries.Eliminate farm subsidies.Raise capital gains and dividend taxes.Eliminate mortgage and state/local tax deductions.Limit charitable donation deduction.4% tax on corporate share buybacks.5% national VAT tax.I also included some provisions that actually raise spending or reduce taxes, since that would likely be necessary to gain enough support.Tighten border security and build a border wall.Extend 2017 tax cuts only for taxpayers earning less than $400,000.To be clear, I don’t like much of this plan. I know it’s far from balancing the budget. But I am working within the limits of CRFB’s simulator, which is at least a starting point for discussions.Those last two sweeteners aside, this package would make pretty much everyone scream bloody murder… and it still doesn’t solve the problem. And (as CRFB admits) these numbers are not “dynamically scored,” which means they ignore any macroeconomic effects the policy changes would cause. We can’t know what those would be, but I suspect not good.In making these choices I was trying to think not of what I want, but what could pass the currently divided Congress. Frankly, I don’t think anything like this could pass. And it’s not so much because the politicians are gutless, but because their voters demand the impossible.If the House and Senate were to actually debate a serious compromise, it would be high drama like the Greek tragedies I mentioned earlier. But it wouldn’t end in catharsis because the problem would stay unresolved. Nonetheless, the problem willbe resolved, one way or another.That will be the real catharsis.We Need a Better ModelI am sure you have better ideas. I certainly do. Congress can get the CBO to “score” any proposed legislation as to how it would affect the budget. You and I don’t see that process. It is all behind the curtain.What we really need is a model that the public can use that is both dynamic and allows sliding scales on both revenues and expenses. For instance, rather than simply saying capital gains should be taxed at 28%, or seen as ordinary income, what if you could see the effect of each 1% increase in capital gains taxes? At what income level should we means test Social Security or Medicare? What happens if we eliminate some programs?I am hoping to do a little crowdsourcing here. Surely there is a more dynamic model out there somewhere? Can someone point me to it? I literally have no idea how much it would cost but it would be a great way for people to understand the difficult choices we must make. Plus, if hundreds of thousands of people actually went through the exercise you would begin to see where compromise might be possible.I don’t think a compromise will happen before we’re forced into a crisis by the bond market, and at some debt level we will get that crisis. If it happens while we are having a global geopolitical crisis (wars and rumors of war), a global crisis of some sort, then what? Rather than go into that crisis with no ideas, we would at least have some clues.Dallas, Austin, and Old FriendsMy plan right now is to be in Dallas for Thanksgiving week to be with my kids and of course friends and business partners.As I was writing this section, I got a call from one of my oldest and best friends, Gary Halbert. He has been struggling with prostate cancer but was getting advanced treatments and sounded optimistic, as he always does. This call, however, came from the hospital where he and Debi just learned that they are out of medical options and, well, he is going home to hospice care.Readers who have been with me a long time will remember Gary, as we were partners in a company called ProFutures throughout the 1990s. It was my first foray into the actual investment management business. Gary and I talked multiple times a day every day for 10‒12 years, even though I was based in Arlington (Texas) and he was in Austin. We mutually watched our children grow up, and my kids loved visiting Gary and Debi’s lake house. They had all the cool lake toys and a fabulous cabin for guests.The business was quite successful. Gary eventually bought me out, very amicably, and we remained close friends. I can’t imagine where my life would be without our relationship. But then, he has that effect on many of his friends and relationships. Truth be told, I literally learned about the power of newsletter writing watching him do it back when we still printed newsletters. He inspired me to launch my own.I can’t say enough positive things about Gary, and will likely do so later, but right now I am still processing, as I’m sure he and Debi are.And with that I will hit the send button. Have a great week and stay in touch with your friends.Your thinking life is too short analyst,John Mauldin Co-Founder, Mauldin Economics
The Nijjar killing, the Gaza War and China’s Designs.
An entire narrative is emerging that shows a determined effort to derail the gains from G20, the important going forward of the IMEEC corridor, as an effective alternative to the Chinese BRI plans. The new alignments in the Middle East, the new found acceptance of Israel as an ally of key Arab countries – all these have been put into cold storage, for the time being. Hamas attacks are now near forgotten, the plight of the Gaza residents has come into focus, igniting Muslim passions globally.
Recent BRI meeting in Beijing with both China and Russia leadership.
In my article The ‘5 Eyes and More! The Plot Thickens as Multiple Motives Emerge’ which was posted on 2 October 2023 on diconversations.com I had argued that the killing of pro-Khalistan activist Harjit Singh Nijjar in Surrey, British Columbia on 18 June 2023 was a most likely False Flag operation jointly conducted by China’s MSS and Pakistan’s ISI. The objective of this op was to derail G20 and with it the proposed G20 India-Mid East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEEC) championed by US President Joe Biden as the alternative to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The collateral motive was to destroy India’s ties with the West.
While this False Flag operation failed in derailing G20, it pretty much succeeded in denting India’s ties with the West assisted in no small measure by misguided and naive anchors and “journalists” from the mainstream print and television media in this country.
On 9 October, exactly a week after my article mentioned above was uploaded on the net, a Chinese born and now US based independent blogger called Jennifer Zeng announced in her video blog that according to a Canadian based Chinese writer and U Tuber named Lao Deng, the MSS or Chinese intelligence orchestrated the hit on Nijjar. The go-ahead for the operation was supposedly given to MSS field agents in Seattle, USA under instructions from Mr. Chen Yixin, China’s Minister of State Security (MSS). However, no motive was disclosed.
Meanwhile, around the same time information was being circulated on the internet that two deep cover ISI agents based in Surrey namely Tariq Kiyani and Rahat Rao were the local handlers of the Nijjar execution. Such reports indicate that both individuals were interrogated by the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP). Clearly, where there is smoke, there must be fire.
Was the objective to derail the potential of the IMEEC?
However, this False Flag operation failed in derailing G20 due to the pragmatic and conciliatory leadership of US President Joe Biden. He succeeded in shepherding the leaders of India, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Italy, France, Germany, and the European Commission to collectively announce their consensus in creating the IMEEC. The corridor would have an Indian starting point from either Mumbai or the Adani Port in Mundhra. Goods would be shipped from either of these two destinations to Jebel Ali or Al Fujairah ports in the UAE. Jebel Ali is one of the world’s largest and most efficient ports and trans-shipment hubs. It is also the base of a famous Emirati logistics company called DP World, which operates container terminals on India’s west coast at the ports of Mundra, Mumbai and Kochi. Almost 25% of India’s container traffic is carried by DP World.
Fires rage in Gaza: destruction continues in the war
From Jebel Ali and Fujairah, the IMEEC land route would see containers moving by rail from Fujairah to Israel’s Haifa port on the shores of the eastern Mediterranean coast. The Adani group has purchased a container terminal here at Haifa for $1.2 billion.
End to end from Al Fujairah to Haifa the distance by rail is 2547 kms. Out of this, 2067 kms of railway is already operational. A 250km stretch from the Saudi-UAE border to Haradh is under construction and the remaining 1,392km long railway line from Haradh to Al Haditha border post with Jordan is already in place. What remains to be laid is about only 230kms of track from Al Haditha to Beit Shean on the Jordan-Israel border. The final 70km stretch from Beit Shean to Haifa is already in place. Coincidentally, it traverses along a small part of the 1,300km long narrow-gauge Hejaz Railway line built by the Turks in the early part of the 20th-century to link Damascus with Madinah.
From Haifa, the containers would then be loaded back onto ships that would take them to either Kavala or Volos in Greece, Gioia Tauro in southern Italy or Marseilles in France to get on the European rail networks for their final destinations in Germany or beyond. And the same would happen on the reverse journey from Europe to India via West Asia.
IMEEC and the Abraham Accords: Both important Indo-US interests
Just days before the commencement of the G20 summit in New Delhi on 8 September, Prime Minister Modi visited Greece on 25 August. According to an English language Greek news portal called ‘Greek City Times’ during talks between Modi and Greek Prime Minister Mitsotakis, the former expressed India’s interest in acquiring Greek ports. This interest was in acquiring one or more of the ports of Kavala or Volos or Alexandroupolis. While Piraeus would have been the best Greek port for this purpose, it could not be considered because it is 60% owned by a famous Chinese company called COSCO. Clearly the Adani Group was/is integral to the success of IMEEC, since IMEEC can only be a reality with both Haifa and either one of the three Greek ports as trans-shipment hubs.
What added fuel to the fire of China’s ire against this emerging IMEEC was Italy’s formal withdrawal from the BRI almost simultaneously with its endorsement of IMEEC. Furthermore, the next meeting of all the IMEEC signatories was scheduled for November this year. The genesis of this ambitious plan of creating the IMEEC unquestionably lies in the Abraham Accords. This was one of the few foreign policy achievements of the Trump administration that has bipartisan consensus in the US and was adopted by the Biden administration.
The Abraham Accords not only established the basis for ties between Israel and UAE but also gave birth to the I2U2 grouping that brought India into the fold along with Israel, the US and UAE. Statements issued after the first I2U2 foreign ministers’ meeting in October 2021 and the virtual summit in July 2022, clearly included joint investments in transport as one of the group’s priority areas. The meeting of the NSAs of India, the US, UAE, and Saudi Arabia in Riyadh in May 2023 realistically shaped this hitherto nebulous concept.
While Israel was not represented in Riyadh, her Prime Minister, Netanyahu has been an early and enthusiastic supporter of the proposal. In fact, Israeli energy minister Yisrael Katz claims to have persuaded Netanyahu to push for its inclusion in the I2U2 framework and was confident that it could not only foster peace but also turn Haifa into a regional transport hub.
However, watching on the sidelines of these developments were China, Türkiye, and Iran. They collectively stood to lose greatly by IMEEC.
On 17 October as the crisis in Gaza accelerated, Xi Jinping was master of ceremonies in Beijing to celebrate ten years of its Belt and Road initiative. The galaxy of guests invited ranged from Vladimir Putin and Hungary’s Viktor Orban to the Taliban. The Putin inspired Russian media has been quick to contrast Xi and Putin’s multipolar vision of the world epitomised by BRI with the Biden midwifed IMEEC. Both Beijing and Moscow are working to immediately energise the two-state (Israel-Palestine) formula as a fundamental solution to the long crisis presently manifested in Gaza.
Much to Lose for other Countries such as China, Turkey, and Iran?
For China, while the BRI is overtly focussed on trade, IMEEC, by its very definition, goes beyond the somewhat narrow scope of trade in physical products. It builds on dialogues within the Quad, NATO and AUKUS during the past few years about the imperative of cyber security and the need to build secure and trusted communication and logistics networks. Also, the emergence of IMEEC would devalue China’s equity in the Greek port of Piraeus.
For Türkiye, President Erdogan himself took the lead in opposing IMEEC. “We say there is no corridor without Türkiye,” he has said. “We are an important production and trade centre. The most convenient route for traffic from East to West must go through Türkiye.” The sea route for IMEEC between Haifa and Kavala or Volos or Alexandroupolis passes through disputed waters. The Greek and Turkish navies frequently clash in these waters as they are yet to demarcate the exclusive economic zones (EEZs) and maritime boundaries. Erdogan feels that India had raised similar concerns about the (BRI), which passes through foreign occupied land in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir. The 1923 Treaty of Lausanne, which Türkiye and Greece signed after a four-year war, did not specify maritime boundaries and the status of islands in the Aegean Sea. If Greece maps its maritime borders from the islands it occupies, then 71.5 per cent of the Aegean Sea would be under Greek sovereignty and only 8.7 per cent under Türkiye.
For Iran, IMEEC will perhaps spell the end of the proposed 7,200-km International North-South Transport Corridor between India, Iran, Azerbaijan, Russia, Central Asia, and Europe. That corridor relied on the Iranian port of Chabahar.
The dynamics of global intrigue
Therefore, one can argue that China, Iran, and Türkiye had to act fast to destroy IMEEC before November 2023. Could there be a better way than to instigate and underwrite the Hamas action against Israel that started on 7 October 2023? Even though Iran is Shia and not an Arab state, her Hamas proxy is Sunni. Notwithstanding all his bold and culturally western actions, Prince Salman of Saudi Arabia cannot ignore the retaliatory killings of Sunni Palestinians in Gaza. The Israeli blockade of Gaza has resulted in driving a wedge between Saudi Arabia and Israel and Saudi Arabia and the US. Further, it is beginning to unite all the diverse factions of global Islam.
The route taken by IMMEC from Al Fujairah to Haifa traverses through an area in Israel that Iran and Islamists call waqf (endowment) land, temporarily lost to kafirs (infidels) and requiring reconquest. Following the US withdrawal from the Middle East, Iran has spent several years surrounding Israel with client Islamist paramilitary groups like Hamas and Hezbollah. The aim is to decimate and eradicate Israel so that Iran dominates the Middle East. In this regard, Iran encouraged Hamas to make powerful regional friends like Qatar and Turkey. However, weapons know-how, tactical skills and hardware that made 7 October possible are only provided by Iran.
Hamas has staked the lives of civilian Palestinians to engage in this heinous act of terror on innocent civilian Israelis. Perhaps Netanyahu’s persecution of the Gaza strip to render it an unviable enclave within the ambit of the Palestinian state has contributed to the emerging apocalyptic outcome. Hamas had nothing to lose. It was being pushed to the wall. Israel however has its work cut out as Hamas is not merely an organisation but a movement. How Israel will succeed in obliterating this movement remains to be seen. If Israel fails in snuffing out Hamas, it will lose its aura of invincibility in the Middle-east prompting others to take a chance against it. The Former Prime Minister of Palestine and the head of the Hamas Political Bureau Ismail Haniyeh, has called on the global Islamic Ummah to stage anti-Israel protests. These have started in a swathe from Beirut to Melbourne. All Democracies with significant Muslim minority populations can expect such demonstrations to ignite their cities in the days to come. Why did Sunak and Scholz visit Tel-Aviv to be shortly followed by Macron?
On 17 October an explosion at the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza created an uproar with Hamas falsely blaming Israeli airstrikes. Israel however displayed evidence that the deadly blast in the parking lot of the facility was caused by a misfired rocket launched by Palestinian terrorists. The blast coincidently occurred on the eve of President Biden’s trip to Israel the next day on 18 October. Biden came to reinforce Israel’s fight against Hamas and to offer aid to Palestinians suffering under an Israeli retaliation. However, circumstances pushed Biden to inextricably link himself to Israel in any fight to come.
The hospital blast prompted the cancellation of the critical next leg of Biden’s visit to Amman, Jordan where he had been due to meet Jordan’s King Abdullah II, the Egyptian president, and the leader of the Palestinian Authority. Rather than host a presidential summit, Amman on Wednesday was rocked by a second night of huge protests that crystalized anger in Arab nations over the Israeli pounding of Gaza. Demonstrations also erupted in Tunisia, Iraq, Iran, in the occupied West Bank and Lebanon.
Further, UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak landed in Israel at on Thursday 19 October 2023 for meetings with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Isaac Herzog. Will Sunak be the 21st century’s Neville Chamberlain?
The situation in Gaza also appeared to inextricably harden the attitudes of key regional powers like Turkish President Erdogan.
The Arab allies of the US appear to have moved back many steps from their embrace with the US.
Meanwhile, the Chinese and their guests and allies celebrating the 10th anniversary of BRI are probably laughing behind the high walls of Zhongnanhai and toasting their first significant victory, against the Quad and its fellow travellers.
Editor’s Note:
But this is where we stand at present, with much more action to roll! How it pans out remains of huge interest, given the non-stop coverage of the Israel-Hamas confrontation on our national television. Given this possible scenario, India’s best interests are to ensure the IMEEC remains on track, recent alignments which India has achieved do not get derailed from their original intentions. That we remain adequately committed to our multipolar diplomacy, keep our defences up, our feet and ears to the ground.
John Mauldin
Blog of Intellectual Capital 
