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WASHINGTON — In one of the bleakest assessments yet, economists at the World Bank predicted on Sunday that the global economy and the volume of global trade would both shrink this year for the first time since World War II.

The World Bank said in a new report that the crisis that began with junk mortgages in the United States was causing havoc for poorer countries that had nothing to do with the original problem.

As a result, it said, nations in Latin America, Africa and East Asia have had not only their growth stifled but their access to credit as well.

The bank’s assessment for 2009 was grimmer than those of most private forecasters. It did not provide a specific estimate, but bank officials said its economists would be publishing one in the next several weeks.

Even extremely pessimistic forecasters have predicted that the global economy would eke out a tiny expansion, on continuing if slowed growth outside the United States and Europe. In late January, the International Monetary Fund reduced its estimate for global growth this year to just 0.5 percent, the lowest level in more than 60 years.

Read the full articla by Edmund Andrews at NYTimes here.

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By Stephen O’Neill, Esq. – Murray & Murray law firm

I was recently in Bankruptcy Court and I was having a discussion with a Bankruptcy Judge regarding “worst case scenarios”. On the way back to the office, I started to think about “worst case scenarios” and I realized that all of my clients, their management, directors and advisers need to start thinking about “worst case scenarios” because over the next twelve months “worst case scenarios” will become the norm not the exception. Here are the facts as I see them:

  1. Banks and Venture Lenders have dramatically reduced their lending.
  2. Banks and Venture Lenders are reviewing their loan portfolios to determine which of their clients are in the “danger zone” and they are taking aggressive actions to protect their positions.
  3. Venture Capital Firms have communicated to their portfolio companies not to expect further investments to fund negative cash flow and continuing losses.
  4. Economic conditions will significantly impact sale projections — bottom line, yesterday’s conservative projections are now very aggressive.
  5. Management of venture backed companies are by nature optimistic and almost never think of the “worst” case scenarios. Many management teams probably do not have experience, bandwidth or skills to deal effectively with distress.

What should Board members be concerned about and what should they do:

  1. The Board should scrutinize the Company’s cash position and projected cash flow/burn rate. The Board should drill down on the basic assumptions regarding the Company’s cash flow. The Board should consider hiring an outside party to conduct an independent evaluation of the Company’s cash flow and verify or refute Management’s analysis and assumptions.
  2. The Board should assess liabilities, both known and contingent, and the fair value of both tangible assets and intangible assets (for example, technology or supplier/customer relationships, lease rejection claims, severance claims). Again, the Board should consider hiring an outside consultant to guide them through the potentially unfamiliar territory of distress.
  3. If the Board determines that the Company has less than six months of cash, the Board should do the following:
    1. Obtain the advice of counsel, including insolvency counsel, to advise the Board and management of their fiduciary duties;
    2. The Board should expect in the current economic environment that further equity investment will not be forthcoming, and if sustainable cash break-even looks problematic, the Company should immediately formulate a set of options to avoid a forced crisis, including a sale process that will maximize enterprise value; and
    3. If the Company finds itself with less than six months of cash, a normal M&A process will not work. The Company should implement a “date certain” sale process, i.e., sale of the Company or its assets will have to close by a certain date due to the cash constraints of the Company. The Board should direct management or outside consultants to prepare a wind down budget which will allow the Company to sell its assets and wind down in an orderly fashion rather than a fire sale.
  4. Understand which constituencies the Board is representing (stockholders, creditors), and how those duties may or may not change depending on the Company’s financial status:
    1. Analyze the tradeoffs implied by each strategic alternative between creditors’ interests and stockholders’ interests;
    2. Confirm that the record reflects a sufficiently deliberative process and the Board’s awareness of its duties to stockholders and/or creditors. Document specifically the scope of fund-raising efforts and alternatives to financings (such as a merger, asset sale or reduction of operations to conserve cash);
    3. Actions that are implemented to increase stockholders’ value but put creditors at risk should be thoroughly scrutinized;
    4. One creditor or one class of creditors should not be given preference over another;
    5. Transactions that would constitute a preferential payment should be closely scrutinized;
    6. f) Exercise care in approving transactions that leave the Company inadequately capitalized even if the Company is solvent at the time; and
    7. Scrutinize all insider transactions.
  5. Assess likelihood of claims regarding breach of fiduciary duties.
  6. Confirm that indemnification agreements are in place (but note that unless adequate D&O insurance is in place, an insolvent company is unlikely to be able to satisfy its indemnity obligations as it lacks cash).

Stephen O’Neill is a partner in the law firm of Murray & Murray, A Professional Corporation. Mr. O’Neill specializes in advising financially distressed companies that are financed by venture capital. Mr. O’Neill was named a “Super Lawyer” by San Francisco Magazine in 2006, 2007 and 2008. Mr. O’Neill is also a frequent lecturer to professional organizations on all aspects of insolvency law.

About Gerbsman Partners

Gerbsman Partners focuses on maximizing enterprise value for stakeholders and shareholders in under-performing, under-capitalized and under-valued companies and their Intellectual Property. In the past 60 months, Gerbsman Partners has been involved in maximizing value for 51 Technology, Life Science and Medical Device companies and their Intellectual Property and has restructured/terminated over $770 million of real estate executory contracts and equipment lease/sub-debt obligations. Since inception, Gerbsman Partners has been involved in over $2.2 billion of financings, restructurings and M&A transactions.

Gerbsman Partners has offices and strategic alliances in Boston, New York, Washington, DC, San Francisco, Europe and Israel.

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“Startup valuations are falling and venture capitalists are driving harder bargains, according to a survey by California law firm Fenwick & West.

Like the rest of the economy, the world of venture capital and startups is starting to feel more pain from the deepening global financial crisis. That’s the main takeaway from a new survey detailing trends in venture capital investments during the fourth quarter of 2008 by the California law firm Fenwick & West.

The survey, which analyzed the terms of venture deals for 128 companies headquartered in the San Francisco Bay Area, found that valuations are falling for startups and that venture capitalists are driving harder bargains. The silver lining: The fallout so far is not nearly as bad as it was during the dot-com bust, when hundreds of companies went under and stratospheric valuations came crashing down to earth.

Down Rounds on the Rise

Sure, there were some startups last quarter that secured a higher value on their latest investment round, such as online vacation rental site HomeAway. But, of the 128 companies that received financing, 33% of them experienced so-called down rounds, or an investment that placed a lower valuation on the company than it received in the previous round of investment. More ominous, the percentage of down rounds rose every month at year’s end, hitting 45% in December. “Each month things got worse in the fourth quarter,” says Barry Kramer, the Fenwick & West partner who runs the survey. The highest percentage of down rounds occurred in the first quarter of 2003, when 73% of the companies surveyed by Fenwick & West suffered down rounds.”

Read the full article by Spencer E. Ante here
Other comments on this piece can be found here: World Tech News, The Livermore report, Silobreaker,

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Steven R. Gerbsman, Principal of Gerbsman Partners, announced today that Gerbsman Partners successfully terminated the executory real estate contract for a US based life science company.

The publically held company, executed a lease for 54,000 square feet of space in San Mateo, California. Due to market conditions and the need to raise additional capital, the company made a strategic decision to reduce its corporate space allocation. Faced with a potential contingent liability in excess of $ 15.5 million, the company retained Gerbsman Partners to assist them in the termination of the executory real estate contract.

About Gerbsman Partners

Gerbsman Partners focuses on maximizing enterprise value for stakeholders and shareholders in under-performing, under-capitalized and under-valued companies and their Intellectual Property. In the past 60 months, Gerbsman Partners has been involved in maximizing value for 51 Technology, Life Science and Medical Device companies and their Intellectual Property and has restructured/terminated over $770 million of real estate executory contracts and equipment lease/sub-debt obligations. Since inception, Gerbsman Partners has been involved in over $2.2 billion of financings, restructurings and M&A transactions.

Gerbsman Partners has offices and strategic alliances in Boston, New York, Washington, DC, San Francisco, Europe and Israel.

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An article written by Uwe E. Reinhardt by way of NY times.

“In my previous two posts, I explored what insights might be had from economists on the compensation of American corporate executives. I concluded “not many,” besides theoretical demand-and-supply models based on questionable assumptions.

The decision makers on the demand side of these models are corporate boards elected, in theory, by shareholders. Economists tacitly assume that in their decisions the boards act as faithful representatives of the shareholders. Thus, they are assumed to bargain on behalf of shareholders with management over the compensation of the C.E.O. and other top executives, and to do so in genuinely arms-length negotiations.

In these negotiations, the boards are assumed to structure the compensation of executives so that the economic incentives facing management will be aligned with those of shareholders — an ideal called “optimal contracting” between the principal (shareholders, as represented by the board) and the agent (the executives hired to manage the shareholders’ firm) in this vision of corporate governance.

The question is how well this felicitous principal-agent model of corporate governance conforms to reality.

In their well-researched and cogently argued “Pay Without Performance: The Unfulfilled Promise of Executive Compensation” (Harvard University Press, 2004), Lucian A. Bebchuk and Jesse M. Fried, Harvard and Berkeley law professors, respectively, and experts on corporate governance, take straight aim at the economists’ model. Anyone interested in this topic could not do better than reading this widely praised book, along with the economist Michael S. Weisbach’s thoughtful review of it, published in the Journal of Economic Literature. ”

The whole article can be found at NY Times here.

Also, please see others analysis here: Proxydemocracy, MacIlree,

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