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“My Digital Footprint” by Tony Fish – Principal of AMF Ventures and a member of Gerbsman Partners Board of Intellectual Capital

March 2, 2010 by Steven R. Gerbsman

Footprints

As important as our environmental carbon footprint is our digital footprint, which represents a significant business opportunity, once it is fully understood.

Tony Fish, a member of Gerbsman Partners Board of Intellectual Capital and serially successful entrepreneur, who advises Gerbsman Partners high growth business on their digital strategy and has written a book on the subject, My Digital Footprint.

“Everything we do on the internet is recorded and analyised from those seeking financial gain from understanding our behaviour, think Google. Our digital footprint includes the data from our interaction with different devices including PC, Mobile and TV, Examples of digital footprint data are websites we look at, our online purchases, location, attention, watching preferences, who we call and for how long, the content we create for twitter, blogs or pictures and the online conversations we have via e-mail or on social networking sites.

We have become used to the free model, TV paid for by advertising, search for free. To get these services there is a trade, your data for free services. Whilst we may have concerns about privacy and civil liberties, it must be acknowledged that we largely give these up as soon as we log in, switch on or click.

Such privacy concerns are of little concern to some people, who have either grown up with a ubiquitous and nearly free internet or have a trust in the trade and brands. These consumers will happily or unwittingly generate a significant amount of personal data as a by-product of their daily interactions. This process has been accelerated and enhanced by smart phones that add location-based, real-time data to extend significantly the user´s digital footprint”.

However, Fish argues that raw data from mobile, web and TV users is of little value unless it is put into context. It is not so much what you might be doing, or saying, but who you are doing it with which creates and accelerator of value creation. For example, the fact that you have just bought a new watch is of minimal interest on its own, purchase made. While you might be interested in watches, you have just bought one and are, therefore, not likely to be in the market for one soon. But if you are going online and telling everyone how wonderful the watch is, and how great the service you received was, this is of value – especially to the dealer and other relevant suppliers, who can identify your long-term value from measuring your digital footprint. Further I can now determine who influenced you to purchase the watch and who you influence – this created new value.

In the future, those of us with the largest digital footprints will be the most valued consumers. Fish predicts that soon we will all have two online identities: a personal one tailored for consumer benefits and a business one for a different level of transaction.

He concludes that the ability to understand the value of online conversations is an opportunity, as nobody owns the space. Entrepreneurs and digital businesses should, therefore, gather and analyse data, and concentrate on developing online relationships that can help them tailor products and services to customers´ needs.

About Tony Fish

Tony Fish: entrepreneur and strategic thinker with over twenty years of experience with leading brands, high growth companies and in venture capital. Tony is an experienced and qualified board level executive with professional experience crossing Web, mobile and TV and divides his time between his non-exec roles and board advisory work.

Tony is an acknowledged public speaker and a leader in “2.0” thinking, through the recipient of independent awards such as placement in the top 10 in The Observer and Guardian newspapers “The future 500 rising stars”, and from global recognition from his peer group.

Tony is known for delivery, probing questioning, clear decision making, simple no-nonsense attitude, robust financial views and governance controls. Tony enjoys an unblemished professional reputation, has a wide and diverse professional network and will bring a truly innovative flair.

Tony Fish B-Eng MBA C-ENG FIET FCIM is the author of “My Digital Footprint: a two sided business model where your privacy will be someone else´s business” Nov 2009 and has previously co-authored two books on mobile and innovation: “Mobile Web 2.0: the innovators guide to developing and marketing next generation wireless/mobile applications”, August 2006; and “OpenGardens, the innovators guide to mobile data industry”, December 2004.

Tony can be reached at: tony(dot)fish(at)amfventures(dot)com

About Gerbsman Partners

Gerbsman Partners focuses on maximizing enterprise value for stakeholders and shareholders in under-performing, under-capitalized and under-valued companies and their Intellectual Property. Since 2001, Gerbsman Partners has been involved in maximizing value for 60 Technology, Life Science and Medical Device companies and their Intellectual Property,, through its proprietary “Date Certain M&A Process” and has restructured/terminated over $790 million of real estate executory contracts and equipment lease/sub-debt obligations. Since inception, Gerbsman Partners has been involved in over $2.3 billion of financings, restructurings and M&A transactions.

Gerbsman Partners has offices and strategic alliances in Boston, New York, Washington, DC, Alexandria, VA, San Francisco, Europe and Israel.

For additional information please visit www.gerbsmanpartners.com

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Trawling for best deals

March 1, 2010 by Steven R. Gerbsman

Here is a good commentary from Seattle Times.

“Don’t be surprised if you see a few limos driving slowly down Elliott Avenue, doing a little window shopping.

Big tech companies are expected to be on the prowl again for acquisitions this year, and the Elliott corridor along Seattle’s waterfront is lined with prime targets.

Actually, companies around the region could be acquired in the coming year as bigger tech companies feel comfortable that the recovery has taken hold and begin spending the cash they’ve been accumulating.

“Now that the equity market is back up they’re jumping in and catching up,” said Nat Burgess, president of Corum Group, a Bothell firm that advises companies on mergers and acquisitions. “If you look out for the next six to nine months, it’s going to be fantastic in terms of deal volumes, in terms of valuations.”

Venture capitalist Matt McIlwain at Madrona Venture Group is expecting deals to roll over the next year or two.

The biggest tech companies, such as Microsoft, Cisco Systems and Google, did a remarkable job managing costs through the downturn and may now be realizing that they “underinvested in innovation,” he said.

“To get growth and innovation, next-generation products, they’re going to have to make some acquisitions,” he said.

Interest rates are still low and the seven biggest tech companies together have $200 billion in cash and could generate $75 billion more this year, he said.

“That sets the stage for at least a 12-to-18-month cycle of acquisitions,” McIlwain said.

Deals may be good for investors, but there’s also a chance the acquiring companies will cut employees or even relocate the businesses.

Buyouts would also continue the Seattle syndrome that leaves the region with an uneven mix of tech companies — a few giants and lots of smaller ones, but not much in between. Companies with promising technologies tend to be sold before they get too big, creating a void in the middle.

But that won’t stop the pinstriped buyers from cruising Elliott with trunks full of cash.

The unusual cluster of tempting opportunities begins with F5, the crown jewel with a market valuation of $4.4 billion as of Friday.

F5 dominates the market for application delivery systems, creating what it calls “strategic points of control” in corporate networks. It’s expecting sales of about $200 million this quarter.

Rumors about F5 being sold have come and gone for years. Some analysts said the big opportunity passed in November when likely buyer Hewlett-Packard bought 3Com instead.

One of those analysts is Jeff Evenson, a Bremerton native at Bernstein Research in New York.

Evenson said F5 would be a strategic fit with a number of companies, but he thinks it could be a challenge to get a deal done.

“The most obvious buyers have an issue that I think is almost insurmountable for them,” he said.

Cisco would be a natural, he said, but it might have trouble getting antitrust approval for a deal if regulators focused on the niche F5 serves.

Within that segment of the network-switching market, the combination of F5 and Cisco would control 80 percent of the market.”

Read the full article here.

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Alliance to boost startups, hire more grads

February 25, 2010 by Steven R. Gerbsman

Here is an article from SF Chronicle´s tech section worth reading.

“Intel Corp. and 24 venture capital firms will invest $3.5 billion in U.S. technology startups over the next two years, as part of a broad initiative to boost the nation’s competitiveness and create jobs.

Posted in Board Of Intellectual Capital, Business models, Economy, Investments, Market research, Strategy, Technology, Venture Capital | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Harvard’s Rogoff Sees Sovereign Defaults, ‘Painful’ Austerity

February 24, 2010 by Robert Tillman

Here is an article from Bloomberg.

“Ballooning debt is likely to force several countries to default and the U.S. to cut spending, according to Harvard University Professor Kenneth Rogoff, who in 2008 predicted the failure of big American banks.

Following banking crises, “we usually see a bunch of sovereign defaults, say in a few years,” Rogoff, a former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, said at a forum in Tokyo yesterday. “I predict we will again.”

The U.S. is likely to tighten monetary policy before cutting government spending, sending “shockwaves” through financial markets, Rogoff said in an interview after the speech. Fiscal policy won’t be curbed until soaring bond yields trigger “very painful” tax increases and spending cuts, he said.

Global scrutiny of sovereign debt has risen after budget shortfalls of countries including Greece swelled in the wake of the worst global financial meltdown since the 1930s. The U.S. is facing an unprecedented $1.6 trillion budget deficit in the year ending Sept. 30, the government has forecast.

“Most countries have reached a point where it would be much wiser to phase out fiscal stimulus,” said Rogoff, who co- wrote a history of financial crises published in 2009. It would be better “to keep monetary policy soft and start gradually tightening fiscal policy even if it meant some inflation.”

Failed Marriage

Rogoff, 56, said he expects Greece will eventually be bailed out by the IMF rather than the European Union. Greece will probably announce an austerity program “in a few weeks” that will prompt the EU to provide a bridge loan which won’t be enough to save the country in the long run, he said.

“It’s like two people getting married and saying therefore they’re living happily ever after,” said Rogoff. “I don’t think Europe’s going to succeed.”

Investors will eventually demand higher interest rates to lend to countries around the world that have accumulated debt, including the U.S., he said. The IMF forecast in November that gross U.S. borrowings will amount to the equivalent of 99.5 percent of annual economic output in 2011. The U.K.’s will reach 94.1 percent and Japan’s will spiral to 204.3 percent.

“In rich countries — Germany, the United States and maybe Japan — we are going to see slow growth. They will tighten their belts when the problem hits with interest rates,” Rogoff said at the forum, which was hosted by CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets, a unit of Credit Agricole SA, France’s largest retail bank. Japanese fiscal policy is “out of control,” he said.”

Read the whole article here.

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Cooley Report Highlights Full Year and Q4 2009 Venture Capital Financing Trends

February 23, 2010 by Steven R. Gerbsman

Outlined below is an article from Cooley Godward Kronish LLP on Venture Capital  market indicators.

“Palo Alto, Calif. – Feb. 18, 2010 – Cooley Godward Kronish LLP today released its most recent report on venture capital financing market terms.  The report analyzes Cooley’s venture capital transactions nationwide that closed during the fourth quarter of 2009, with comparisons to the first three quarters of 2009 and prior years. The analysis is based on 376 completed deals across the United States totaling approximately $3.82 billion during 2009, including 98 completed deals totaling approximately $1.1 billion during the fourth quarter.

Highlights from the fourth quarter of 2009 include:

• The percentage of up rounds in the fourth quarter (45 percent) saw a considerable increase compared to the first three quarters (26 percent)
• The percentage of down or flat rounds continues to outpace the number of up rounds
• While still below recent historical annual averages, fourth quarter median pre-money valuations increased for all series as compared to the prior three quarters of 2009

“The increases in the number of deals, average pre-money valuations and aggregate dollars raised in the fourth quarter point to a potentially improving landscape for venture financing deals,” said Craig Jacoby, head of Cooley’s Emerging Companies practice.

Cooley’s Private Company Financings Report is published quarterly and is based on private company transactions in which Cooley served as counsel to either the issuing company or the investors. A complete version of the report is available here.”

Read the full article here.

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