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Posts Tagged ‘Economy’

The Valley’s latest extreme sport is feigning nonchalance about the economy. Living in an earthquake zone requires developing a habit of stoic flinchiness. The economy’s seismic shifts are slower, but just as unpredictable; all one can do it shrug one’s shoulders, stock the emergency kit, and keep on living. “We’re watching the economy crater all around us, but … well, we’re not really seeing any direct impact,” writes Tech Ticker anchor Sarah Lacy. “Making things more uneasy for those here in 2000: We didn’t cause this one.” Lacy’s right to reach back in history for examples, but her timing is off. This is 1998 all over again.

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As the first anniversary of the credit crisis approaches, it’s clear that a major part of the problem was a spectacular failure of information, with complex asset-backed securities turning out to be far riskier than anyone thought. But as sophisticated as we consider ourselves, this is just a contemporary example of what might be called the Problem of the Oblong Dice.

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A Reuters report today highlights organizations that are cutting back the number of days employees are required to physically show up at work because of soaring gas prices. Even employees who are required to be on-site in order to work, such as janitors, are being cut down to four-day workweeks to save gas. White collar workers, of course, are being allowed, encouraged or forced to stay home once a week or more often and telecommute.

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The global food crisis is a monetary phenomenon, an unintended consequence of America’s attempt to inflate its way out of a market failure. There are long-term reasons for food prices to rise, but the unprecedented spike in grain prices during the past year stems from the weakness of the American dollar. Washington’s economic misery now threatens to become a geopolitical catastrophe.

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The German financial system wanted to consume low-quality American assets, but did not want to look on what it was eating. German banks have written down about US$25 billion in securities derived from low-quality (“subprime”) American mortgages, and doubtless will lose a great deal more.

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