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Archive for March, 2009

WASHINGTON — In one of the bleakest assessments yet, economists at the World Bank predicted on Sunday that the global economy and the volume of global trade would both shrink this year for the first time since World War II.

The World Bank said in a new report that the crisis that began with junk mortgages in the United States was causing havoc for poorer countries that had nothing to do with the original problem.

As a result, it said, nations in Latin America, Africa and East Asia have had not only their growth stifled but their access to credit as well.

The bank’s assessment for 2009 was grimmer than those of most private forecasters. It did not provide a specific estimate, but bank officials said its economists would be publishing one in the next several weeks.

Even extremely pessimistic forecasters have predicted that the global economy would eke out a tiny expansion, on continuing if slowed growth outside the United States and Europe. In late January, the International Monetary Fund reduced its estimate for global growth this year to just 0.5 percent, the lowest level in more than 60 years.

Read the full articla by Edmund Andrews at NYTimes here.

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WASHINGTON — The U.S. economy continues to hemorrhage jobs at monthly rates not seen in six decades, a government report showed, signaling that there’s still no end in sight to the severe recession that has already cost the U.S. over four million jobs.

The report suggests that households, already seeing the value of their homes and investments plunge, face added headwinds from the labor market, which could put more pressure on consumer spending in coming months.

Nonfarm payrolls, which are calculated by a survey of companies, fell 651,000 in February, the U.S. Labor Department said Friday, in line with economist expectations. However, December and January were revised to show much steeper declines. In the case of December, the revision was to a drop of 681,000, the most since 1949 when a huge strike affected half a million workers. However, the labor force was smaller then than it is now.

The economy has shed 4.4 million jobs since the recession began in December 2007, with almost half of those losses occurring in the last three months alone. And unemployment is lasting much longer. As of last month, 2.9 million people were unemployed more than six months, up from just 1.3 million at the start of the recession.

“The sharp and widespread contraction in the labor market continued in February,” said Keith Hall, Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Layoffs announcements continued last month across industries including Macy’s Inc., Time Warner Cable Inc., Estee Lauder Cos., Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. and General Motors Corp.

The unemployment rate, which is calculated using a survey of households, jumped 0.5 percentage point to 8.1%, the highest since December 1983 and slightly above expectations for an 8% rate. Some economists think it could hit 10% by the end of next year. For many industries including manufacturing, construction, business services and leisure, the jobless rate is already in double digits.

Read the full article by Brian Blackstone here.

Other comments can be found here: Flowing data, AFL-CIO, 8Pac

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This current economic crisis has started to hit VC´s as well, Zero Stage Capital dissolves.

Zero Stage Capital, a life science and IT venture firm, dissolved last year after several poorly performing funds, according to limited partners. The firm’s few remaining portfolio companies have been transferred to a newly created firm, Vox Equity Partners, managed by the son of Zero Stage’s managing director.

Originally based in Cambridge, Mass., small business investment company Zero Stage raised a $150 million sixth fund in 1999 and a roughly $160 million seventh fund in 2001. In April 2005, the firm told VentureWire it had scrapped plans for a larger, $250 million eighth fund after several personnel changes, scaling back plans to raise a $150 million vehicle for buying struggling venture-backed businesses.

Yet by 2008, according to one limited partner who wished to remain anonymous for this story, the firm was run out of Managing Director Paul Kelley’s Sommerville, Mass., home as he worked to wind down its operations.”

Read the full VentureWire article by Jonathan Matsey here.

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By Stephen O’Neill, Esq. – Murray & Murray law firm

I was recently in Bankruptcy Court and I was having a discussion with a Bankruptcy Judge regarding “worst case scenarios”. On the way back to the office, I started to think about “worst case scenarios” and I realized that all of my clients, their management, directors and advisers need to start thinking about “worst case scenarios” because over the next twelve months “worst case scenarios” will become the norm not the exception. Here are the facts as I see them:

  1. Banks and Venture Lenders have dramatically reduced their lending.
  2. Banks and Venture Lenders are reviewing their loan portfolios to determine which of their clients are in the “danger zone” and they are taking aggressive actions to protect their positions.
  3. Venture Capital Firms have communicated to their portfolio companies not to expect further investments to fund negative cash flow and continuing losses.
  4. Economic conditions will significantly impact sale projections — bottom line, yesterday’s conservative projections are now very aggressive.
  5. Management of venture backed companies are by nature optimistic and almost never think of the “worst” case scenarios. Many management teams probably do not have experience, bandwidth or skills to deal effectively with distress.

What should Board members be concerned about and what should they do:

  1. The Board should scrutinize the Company’s cash position and projected cash flow/burn rate. The Board should drill down on the basic assumptions regarding the Company’s cash flow. The Board should consider hiring an outside party to conduct an independent evaluation of the Company’s cash flow and verify or refute Management’s analysis and assumptions.
  2. The Board should assess liabilities, both known and contingent, and the fair value of both tangible assets and intangible assets (for example, technology or supplier/customer relationships, lease rejection claims, severance claims). Again, the Board should consider hiring an outside consultant to guide them through the potentially unfamiliar territory of distress.
  3. If the Board determines that the Company has less than six months of cash, the Board should do the following:
    1. Obtain the advice of counsel, including insolvency counsel, to advise the Board and management of their fiduciary duties;
    2. The Board should expect in the current economic environment that further equity investment will not be forthcoming, and if sustainable cash break-even looks problematic, the Company should immediately formulate a set of options to avoid a forced crisis, including a sale process that will maximize enterprise value; and
    3. If the Company finds itself with less than six months of cash, a normal M&A process will not work. The Company should implement a “date certain” sale process, i.e., sale of the Company or its assets will have to close by a certain date due to the cash constraints of the Company. The Board should direct management or outside consultants to prepare a wind down budget which will allow the Company to sell its assets and wind down in an orderly fashion rather than a fire sale.
  4. Understand which constituencies the Board is representing (stockholders, creditors), and how those duties may or may not change depending on the Company’s financial status:
    1. Analyze the tradeoffs implied by each strategic alternative between creditors’ interests and stockholders’ interests;
    2. Confirm that the record reflects a sufficiently deliberative process and the Board’s awareness of its duties to stockholders and/or creditors. Document specifically the scope of fund-raising efforts and alternatives to financings (such as a merger, asset sale or reduction of operations to conserve cash);
    3. Actions that are implemented to increase stockholders’ value but put creditors at risk should be thoroughly scrutinized;
    4. One creditor or one class of creditors should not be given preference over another;
    5. Transactions that would constitute a preferential payment should be closely scrutinized;
    6. f) Exercise care in approving transactions that leave the Company inadequately capitalized even if the Company is solvent at the time; and
    7. Scrutinize all insider transactions.
  5. Assess likelihood of claims regarding breach of fiduciary duties.
  6. Confirm that indemnification agreements are in place (but note that unless adequate D&O insurance is in place, an insolvent company is unlikely to be able to satisfy its indemnity obligations as it lacks cash).

Stephen O’Neill is a partner in the law firm of Murray & Murray, A Professional Corporation. Mr. O’Neill specializes in advising financially distressed companies that are financed by venture capital. Mr. O’Neill was named a “Super Lawyer” by San Francisco Magazine in 2006, 2007 and 2008. Mr. O’Neill is also a frequent lecturer to professional organizations on all aspects of insolvency law.

About Gerbsman Partners

Gerbsman Partners focuses on maximizing enterprise value for stakeholders and shareholders in under-performing, under-capitalized and under-valued companies and their Intellectual Property. In the past 60 months, Gerbsman Partners has been involved in maximizing value for 51 Technology, Life Science and Medical Device companies and their Intellectual Property and has restructured/terminated over $770 million of real estate executory contracts and equipment lease/sub-debt obligations. Since inception, Gerbsman Partners has been involved in over $2.2 billion of financings, restructurings and M&A transactions.

Gerbsman Partners has offices and strategic alliances in Boston, New York, Washington, DC, San Francisco, Europe and Israel.

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Here is a good article by Scott Austin at WSJ Online on a subject we brought up last week.

“Start-up companies appear to be giving into investor demands of a harsher funding deal term that gained notoriety after the tech bubble burst in the early part of the decade.

According to two separate quarterly reports issued last week from law firms Fenwick & West and Cooley Godward Kronish, venture capital firms are more frequently receiving multiple liquidation preferences that protect them from losing out on investments.

Venture capital firms almost always receive preferred stock when they invest in companies, giving them certain rights over common stock holders, usually the founders and executives. One of these standard rights is a liquidation preference, which gives preferred stock holders the right to get their money back from a company before other common stock holders in an unfavorable sale or liquidation.

But with more companies in trouble, investors are inserting multiple liquidation preferences into term sheets, meaning they could get two times or more the amount of capital they invested. That can create nightmarish capital structures for companies but give them more incentive for them to become successful.”

Read the full article here.

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