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Archive for September, 2009

Investing in Technology M&A

Posted in Board Of Intellectual Capital, tagged , , , , , , , , , , on September 11, 2009| Leave a Comment »

Here is an interesting article by Aaron Pressman at BusinessWeek.

“The conventional wisdom used to be that investors should run from technology companies that did too many mergers and acquisitions. But over the past decade, a group of top-tier tech wheelers and dealers has emerged that increased shareholder value with their acquisitiveness. Companies such as Oracle, IBM, and Adobe Systems have successfully used acquisitions to get into new lines of business, expand their customer bases, and grab hot new technologies. Still, some companies consistently overpay or buy yesterday’s big breakthrough. An informal survey of tech fund managers, analysts, and consultants yielded a list of companies investors will likely favor on more deal news—and a few they may shun.

Once mainly a hardware vendor of computers large and small, IBM (IBM) has used a sharp acquisition strategy to expand into software and information technology services. After a string of successful additions, including performance management software maker Cognos, and Rational, which makes tools to help programmers write code, IBM announced in July it would pay $1.2 billion for SPSS, a leading developer of software to analyze statistical data. “All the software acquisitions have helped shift the company toward higher margins and faster growing areas,” says Ken Allen, manager of the T. Rowe Price Science & Technology Fund. IBM was his 15th largest holding as of June 30.

Salesforce.com (CRM) has always been a poster child for the move from desktop applications to Web-based products. As more computing and data storage have migrated to online servers—the clouds in “cloud computing”—Salesforce has used a series of small acquisitions to keep pace. In 2006 it grabbed wireless software developer Sendia, for example, helping make all its offerings available over mobile phones. “They’re doing a good job of pushing each acquisition into their services,” says Jeff Kaplan, founder of tech consulting firm Thinkstrategies.

Cisco Systems (CSCO) is the king of bolt-on acquisitions. In a typical deal, Cisco purchases a much smaller company, such as voice-over-Internet gearmaker Sipura, which it bought for $68 million in 2005. Then it uses its manufacturing smarts and sales force to promote cutting-edge products that often fit into existing lines of business. Cisco also uses purchases to diversify and get into new businesses. This year it added Pure Digital Technologies, maker of the Flip digital video camera. “Their goal is to become a larger player in the consumer electronics and networking business,” says Ned Douthat, an analyst at Ockham Research in Roswell, Ga.”

Read the full article here.

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Good News And Bad News On IPO Front

Posted in Board Of Intellectual Capital, tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on September 10, 2009| Leave a Comment »

Here is some good insights from Chris O´brien at SiliconBeat.

“This morning my inbox contained the latest report from Renaissance Capital. It has some hopeful news about IPOs, but not necessarily for Silicon Valley.

First, the good news: ”After an uptick in filing activity, there are 67 companies in the active IPO pipeline, up from 29 in March 2009.”

As far as Silicon Valley is concerned, that’s about as far as the good news goes. Now, here’s the bad news.

According to Renaissance:

“Today, the tech, healthcare and retail growth stories that have driven past market revivals have been conspicuously absent from the latest wave of  IPO hopefuls.  This makes sense, given the historic consumer shut-down and the anti-business and investment rhetoric emanating from Washington.  In their place, there is a pool of unusual candidates shaped by an era of cheap credit and  the unprecedented mortgage crisis that followed.  At least for the near term, it appears that the IPO market will be dominated by opportunistic investment vehicles and businesses from the mid-decade buyout bubble.”

And his post concludes:

Currently, there are seven venture-backed companies in the IPO pipeline. Could there be more? Renaissance gives a round up of likely suspects:

“Besides the social networking giants Facebook, Twitter and LinkedIn, there have been several other rumored IPO candidates from the VC community as the market began to recover in early March.  Near-term, we expect the majority of new venture-backed IPO filings to come from the technology and alternative energy sectors.  Potential IPO prospects from each of these industries include online games company Zynga, ethernet network equipment provider Force10 and property & casualty software maker Guidewire in the technology sector, and smart grid company Silver Spring, solar panel maker Solyndra and electric car manufacturer Tesla Motors in alternative energy.”

Read the full article here.

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China alarmed by US money printing

Posted in Board Of Intellectual Capital, tagged , , , , , on September 8, 2009| Leave a Comment »

Here is an article from The Telegraph.

The US Federal Reserve’s policy of printing money to buy Treasury debt threatens to set off a serious decline of the dollar and compel China to redesign its foreign reserve policy, according to a top member of the Communist hierarchy.

Cheng Siwei, former vice-chairman of the Standing Committee and now head of China’s green energy drive, said Beijing was dismayed by the Fed’s recourse to “credit easing”.

“We hope there will be a change in monetary policy as soon as they have positive growth again,” he said at the Ambrosetti Workshop, a policy gathering on Lake Como.

“If they keep printing money to buy bonds it will lead to inflation, and after a year or two the dollar will fall hard. Most of our foreign reserves are in US bonds and this is very difficult to change, so we will diversify incremental reserves into euros, yen, and other currencies,” he said.

China’s reserves are more than – $2 trillion, the world’s largest.

“Gold is definitely an alternative, but when we buy, the price goes up. We have to do it carefully so as not to stimulate the markets,” he added.

The comments suggest that China has become the driving force in the gold market and can be counted on to
buy whenever there is a price dip, putting a floor under any correction.

Mr Cheng said the Fed’s loose monetary policy was stoking an unstable asset boom in China. “If we raise interest rates, we will be flooded with hot money. We have to wait for them. If they raise, we raise.

“Credit in China is too loose. We have a bubble in the housing market and in stocks so we have to be very careful, because this could fall down.”

Mr Cheng said China had learned from the West that it is a mistake for central banks to target retail price inflation and take their eye off assets.

“This is where Greenspan went wrong from 2000 to 2004,” he said. “He thought everything was alright because inflation was low, but assets absorbed the liquidity.”

Read the full article here.

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WHAT’S IN STORE, INFLATION OR DEFAULT?

Posted in Board Of Intellectual Capital, tagged , , , , , , , , , , on September 7, 2009| Leave a Comment »

Here is a story from the Powerline Blog.

“I’ve assumed that the profligate spending and borrowing planned by the Democrats in Congress and the White House will run up a debt that we and our children just can’t pay, so, in the time-honored tradition of banana republics, the Obama administration or its successors will inflate our currency and repay its creditors (China, mostly) in devalued dollars. Thus, I’ve been buying gold. I’ve assumed that an actual default by the United States government is unthinkable.

Jeffrey Rogers Hummel, however, disagrees. He writes: Why Default on U.S. Treasuries Is Likely. HIs thesis is that times have changed, and it isn’t so easy to inflate our way out of debt:

Many predict that…the government will inflate its way out of this future bind, using Federal Reserve monetary expansion to fill the shortfall between outlays and receipts. But I believe, in contrast, that it is far more likely that the United States will be driven to an outright default on Treasury securities, openly reneging on the interest due on its formal debt and probably repudiating part of the principal.

Hummel explains that most money is now created privately by banks and other institutions, not the government, so that “[o]nly in poor countries, such as Zimbabwe, with their primitive financial sectors, does inflation remain lucrative for governments.”

A steep tax increase won’t really work for the Obama administration either. ”

To read the full article, click here.

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