Feeds:
Posts
Comments

Archive for April, 2013

Above the Crowd

A Rake Too Far: Optimal Platform Pricing Strategy

In a casino, the term “rake” refers to the commission that the house earns for operating a poker game. With each hand, a small percentage of the pot is scraped off by the dealer, which in essence becomes the “revenue” for the casino. While casinos use the term “rake,” a plethora of interesting word choices exist which all describe the same thing – keeping a little bit of the revenue for the company that is running the service. Examples include “commission,” “fee,” “toll,” “tax,” “vig” or “vigorish,” “juice,” “the take”, and “graft” (although this last one is typically associated with corruption in politics).

Many Internet marketplaces also have a rake or vig. The percentage rake is the amount that the marketplace charges as a percentage of GMS (gross merchandise sales), which typically represents net revenues for the marketplace. As an example, eBay’s 2011 marketplace revenues were approximately $6.6B against GMS of approximately $68.6B for a rake percentage of just under 10%. It may seem tautological that a higher rake is always better – that charging more would be better than charging less. But in fact, the opposite may often be true. The most dangerous strategy for any platform company is to price too high – to charge a greedy and overzealous rake that could serve to undermine the whole point of having a platform in the first place.

Before discussing the merits of low rakes versus high rakes, let us first take a look at current examples of different rakes across the Internet. The table above shows estimated rakes for several online businesses as a percentage of GMS. Do not assume that these numbers are specifically accurate as some vendors make these very hard to deduce.*  There is also the added noise of kick-backs that are common in industries like ticketing. You can see very high rakes in the case of iTunes, Facebook, and GroupOn down to especially low rakes for the likes of OpenTable and HomeAway. Amazon marketplace fees are published on their website, and vary by category, but they basically range from 6-15%, so lets say the average is approximately 12%. eBay recently launched an aggressive campaign attacking Amazon’s rate table on a vertical-by-vertical basis (those percentages can be found here). One company with an astonishingly high rake is recently IPOed Shutterstock, a photo-purchasing marketplace where the content owner receives only 30% of gross receipts. As we will argue below, this could in fact be a very fragile situation.

When evaluating new marketplace investments, we are naturally biased towards entrepreneurs who understand the strategic rationale behind the argument for a lower rake. If your objective is to build a winner-take-all marketplace over a very long term, you want to build a platform that has the least amount of friction (both product and pricing). High rakes are a form of friction precisely because your rake becomes part of the landed price for the consumer. If you charge an excessive rake, the pricing of items in your marketplace are now unnaturally high (relative to anything outside your marketplace). In order for your platform to be the “definitive” place to transact, you want industry leading pricing – which is impossible if your rake is the de facto cause of excessive pricing. High rakes also create a natural impetus for suppliers to look elsewhere, which endangers sustainability. These reasons are likely behind the struggles in GroupOn’s core Daily Deals business (North America Third Party Revenue is down in Q4 both YOY and QOQ). With a rake of approximately 38% (and this is “after” asking the merchant to underwrite a 50% discount to the consumer) the recovery from each transaction for the supplier is only 30%, representing an “effective” rake of 70%.

High volume combined with a modest rake is the perfect formula for a true organic marketplace and a sustainable competitive advantage. A sustainable platform or marketplace is one where the value of being in the network clearly outshines the transactional costs charged for being in the network. This way, suppliers will feel obliged to stay on the platform, and consumers will not see prices that are overly burdened by the network provider. Everyone wins in this scenario, but particularly the platform provider. A high rake will allow you to achieve larger revenues faster, but it will eventually represent a strategic red flag – a pricing umbrella that can be exploited by others in the ecosystem, perhaps by someone with a more disruptive business model. As Jeff Bezos is fond of saying, “your margin is my opportunity.”

Many people do not know this, but one of the most amazing Internet success stories is the European division of The Priceline Group, which operates under the brand Booking.com. Booking.com is the unquestioned leader in online travel in Europe, and represents a substantial portion of TPG’s astounding $35B market capitalization. Booking.com was not always the online leader in Europe – in fact they were a disrupter stealing the flag from other large incumbents. In the late 1990’s companies like Expedia and Travelocity had become enamored with what is known as the “merchant model.” Basically, these companies would “package” vacation offerings for the consumer and sell them as a bundled offering. The merchant model could produce a rake of well over 30%, and was therefore attractive to companies like Expedia. Booking.com took a much more aggressive approach (perhaps because it was the only one available) . They started with a 10% “agency model,” which not only represented a lower rake, but also provided better cash flow terms to the supplier. As such, they were able to signup nearly every small hotel in Europe. This resulted in more selection for the consumer and more support from the supplier base. Dennis Schall at  Skift.com has a wonderfully detailed account of how Booking.com came to dominate Europe, along with a more recent article addressing the lingering ramifications of the industry’s natural shift to the lower friction (lower rake) agency model.

It turns out that the average rake at Priceline Group  is even higher today, as they allow merchants to voluntarily bid up their rake for better placement in the network (you can see this in the table above). This is one of my favorite marketplace business model “tweaks.” You start with a low rake to get broad-based supplier adoption, and you add in a market-driven pricing dynamic that allows those suppliers who want more volume or exposure to pay more on an opt-in basis. This way no one leaves the network due to excessive fees, yet you end up with a higher average rake over time due to the competitive dynamic. And when prices go up due to bidding and competition, the suppliers blame their competition not the platform (part of the genius of the Google AdWords business model). This also allows you to extract more dollars from those suppliers who desire to spend more to promote themselves (without raising the tax on those that don’t).

Here is another interesting story related to rakes. In 2006, Benchmark started spending time with Gary Swart and the team at oDesk. We were quite enamored with their marketplace for skilled global talent, and were amazed at how the tools in their online workplace allowed customers to hire, manage, and pay for work from distributed teams. Combined with a bidding and reputation system, oDesk had built an “ebay for work.” At the same time, there were several larger players in the market such as Freelancer and Rent-a-coder. After discussing competition at length, the team came upon the idea of lowering the commission from 30% (which was standard in the industry) to 10% of overall costs. We were excited to hear such aggressive strategic thinking from the team, and they were excited to hear from an investor with a long-term perspective (this change obviously reduced current period revenue to 1/3 of its current level).  The rest is history. By 2009 oDesk surpassed the nearest competitor, and they are now the clear leader (larger than their top competitors combined) in the rapidly emerging “online work” industry.

All of which leads us to two very interesting rake examples that are front and center in today’s Internet – Facebook and Apple. Both of these companies charge a hefty 30% fee for transactions on their platform. Because most of the developers building on these platforms make software, the developers do not experience immediate pain when they share 30% of top-line revenue. After all, marginal costs are near zero, and therefore the fee is tolerable. But the real question is: Does the 30% marketplace on top of the platform help to reinforce the strategic positioning of the platform itself? Or is it merely a revenue extraction exercise? And if so, is there a risk that a “rake too far” could be a net-negative from a strategic standpoint?
Let’s start with Facebook. For the first several years, Facebook’s application platform was a smashing success. The distribution power of their pervasive platform proved a remarkable vehicle for many companies; particularly games companies. The platform was so successful so quickly that many early adopters of the platform rocketed to hundreds of millions in sales. Zynga, which was particularly adept at surfing the Facebook wave, catapulted to $1 billion in revenue in its sixth year of existence! Everything looked incredible. Fast-forward to today (only a few years later), and games companies are no longer betting their whole company on Facebook. Oddly, they are aggressively and strategically looking to expand non-FB distribution.

It is really hard to pinpoint exactly what went wrong. One might question Facebook’s commitment to being a game platform. Some might also highlight the lack of breadth in its success, and argue that Zynga had it “too good” versus other players in the field. And some might point to the rise of mobile which created a difficult platform transition for Facebook (which we will address shortly). In addition to these issues, there is also a strong argument that 30% was simply an excessive rake.

When you consider that many of these same game companies were also large buyers of Facebook’s ad products, it suggests that the “actual” rake, the real cost of being competitive on the platform, was much higher than 30%. Given Facebook’s position as the leading global social network with high barriers to entry, there was no need to maximize revenue on day one. It was far more important to prove the platform as a viable and efficient distribution mechanism for a broad range of products and services, and to convince all partners of the unquestioned efficacy of the platform itself.

Last November, Zynga and Facebook together renegotiated their previous long-term business agreement. According to the old agreement, Zynga was required to shell out 30% of their revenue even if they generated revenue “off Facebook”.  That is a very aggressive rake. Now Zynga is freed from many commitments it had made to the Facebook platform, and is allowed to build independent revenue streams outside of Facebook. The reality is that Zynga is still highly dependent on Facebook. However, Zynga shareholders are now tracking Zynga’s percentage of revenue tied to Facebook and consider it a positive if they can reduce this dependency. The bottom line is that the entire gaming industry has lost some of its enthusiasm for the Facebook platform, and it will be difficult for Facebook to recreate the magic and momentum they once had.

The Apple case is more extreme as the impact is more consequential. Despite the fact that Apple had/has industry leading hardware margins on its incredible computing products, Apple felt the need to take 30% of the revenue that was created by its app ecosystem as well as 30% of the revenue from media rentals and sales. In retrospect, demanding to be paid on both sides was a sign of overconfidence. However, the truth is they made this work for a very long time. Many companies, thriving on the Apple platform, didn’t exist and wouldn’t exist were it not for iOS. For itself, Apple has created billions and billions of high margin revenue and corresponding bottom line profits as a result of the amazing success of its 30% rake. All of which helped catapult Apple to the very top of the business hierarchy – the largest market capitalization company in the world.

The single-biggest problem with Apple’s aggressively high rake was its impact on potential long-term strategic partnerships. Specifically, two companies that potentially could have helped to reinforce the success of the iOS platform blinked, paused, and then went on to support a competitive platform. Both Amazon and Facebook could have been and should have been BFFs with Apple. And if Apple could go back in time, they would surely opt to be BFFs also. The most threatening company for all three players was clearly Google. However, Amazon owns a digital media business built around Kindle. And Facebook, as discussed, has a 30% rake business helping game developers distribute and monetize games throughout its network. When Facebook and Amazon read the terms of service of the iOS platform, and came to grips with the reality of the 30% rake, they saw an instant road-block – a show-stopper to their potential success on that platform. It was very hard to imagine their business model and Apple’s business model coexisting, and so they eventually punted on a full commitment to iOS.

The bottom line is they could have been amazing partners. If Apple had a lower rake, or even had they been less obstinate about their existing rake, a partnership could have formed (ask anyone in Hollywood – “splits” can solve any problem). iOS could have been both the definitive Facebook mobile device, AND the definitive Amazon shopping device. They could have been integrated from the beginning at a deep level: your social network in contacts; your Amazon 1-click credentials a fingertip away. Jeff Bezos, Mark Zuckerburg, and Steve Jobs on a stage together talking about the truly amazing things these companies have done together. It could have been awesome. But it didn’t play out that way.

Instead, as you are aware, Facebook’s new Home mobile application is available only on Google’s Android, Apple’s key nemesis of the past decade. There are currently no plans to offer Home on iOS, and Eric Schmidt, Google’s esteemed Chairman, cheered along in appreciation at the recent Dive Into Mobile Conference, “I think it’s fantastic — I love it,” Schmidt said. Instead of becoming a platform differentiator for Apple, Facebook is now aiding and abetting Apple’s only real competition.

The Amazon situation vis-a-vis Apple is more severe. In stiff-arming Amazon over its “30%” Apple not only alienated a key partner but launched a competitor. Amazon has obviously designed its Kindle Fire system on top of an Android variant. But that is only half the problem. Amazon, in true Amazon fashion, is now attacking Apple’s exposed business underbelly: the fat margins they receive by charging both high hardware margins and a high rake on content. As outlined in its recent Letter to Shareholders, Amazon does not believe that its customer should have to pay fat margins on hardware AND content. “Our business approach is to sell premium hardware at roughly breakeven prices. We want to make money when people use our devices – not when people buy our devices.” Amazon plans to subsidize the hardware platform and live solely on the content margin. The 30% rake basically launched a nasty competitor with a disruptive pricing model.

Number one on the list of Peter Drucker’s Five Deadly Business Sins is “Worship of high profit margins and premium pricing.” As Drucker notes: “The worship of premium pricing always creates a market for the competitor. And high profit margins do not equal maximum profits. Total profit is profit margin multiplied by turnover. Maximum profit is thus obtained by the profit margin that yields the largest total profit flow…” Most venture capitalists encourage entrepreneurs to price-maximize, to extract as much rent as they possibly can from their ecosystem on each transaction. This is likely short-sighted. There is a big difference between what you can extract versus what you should extract. Water runs downhill.

*Please let us know if you have other names you would add to the table, or if there are numbers you think need correcting. I will update the table and put the rolling updates in the answer to this quora post on the same topic.

Read Full Post »

With money in their pockets and change on their minds, some 700 angel investors flocked to the Angel Capital Association Summit in San Francisco this week.

Alexander Klein/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

Along with macro issues like best practices for syndicating rounds and navigating the Series A crunch, attendees buzzed about the JOBS Act, new funding platforms and other recent changes to the $20 billion a year marketplace of private investing. One of the most popular panels however, focused on a topic that’s always been near and dear to investors: exits.

“We don’t know if we’re investors until the exit occurs–until then we’re merely donors,” said Ohio TechAngel Funds Founder John Huston, eliciting laughter and some wistful sighs in the packed conference room. The panel–“8 Steps to Lucrative Exits”–was one of five devoted to the topic, with Huston suggesting all angel investors set up a process for achieving an exit before they ever enter a deal.

Huston focused entirely on exits through acquisition–a topic worthy of tutelage given the sluggishness of late. According to a recent report by Dow Jones VentureSource, M&A activity declined 44% during the first quarter of 2013 compared with the previous quarter, with the most recent quarter being the lowest since the first quarter of 2009. Huston advised investors to set exit expectations with founders from the onset and build the company for acquisition–not shareholder value.

“If you are on the board then it’s incumbent upon you to drive the exit. All the other angels are counting on you,” he said, adding that if VCs are on the cap table “then you’re neutered unless you drove the VC selection process.”

He said simply growing revenue, although nice, was too slow a process to incite high bids.

To maximize buyer value he suggested compiling a hit list of the top five strategic acquirers based on their willingness and ability to do a deal. Determining which customers they’d like to secure [and then beating them to it] and mapping their organization chart to sell the deal should also be part of the process, he said.

“Your goal is to move the strategic acquirers from greed to fear mode which is ‘Wow, I sure hope my biggest competitors doesn’t acquire them first.’ We only hire bankers [to run the sale process] if we are convinced they can do this and run the process with multiple bids,” Huston said.

Greg Sitters, managing director of New Zealand-based Sparkbox Venture Group, said he began using a similar process about four years ago and has had four of his 40 companies exit so far. Striking a balance between growing each company with additional capital and securing a solid exit has been key.

He said: “If we can get companies to exit without VCs than that’s what we’re trying to do.”

Teresa Esser, managing director of Winsconsin-based angel group Silicon Pastures, said her group is constantly trying to bring more of a science to the exit process.

“This entire conference is really helpful with information and inspiration,” she said. “It’s motivational in reminding us that we are a $20 billion marketplace.”

Write to Lizette Chapman at lizette.chapman@dowjones.com. Follow her on Twitter at @zettewil

Read Full Post »

Venture Capital Dispatch

An inside look from VentureWire at high-tech start-ups and their investors.

 

The Daily Startup: VCs Buy In to Mobile Game Maker Supercell

 

Top stories in today’s VentureWire:

 

dailystartup_D_20090806101628.jpgArt by Mike Lucas

 

Eager to own a slice of the wildly profitable Finnish mobile game maker Supercell, venture investors have purchased existing shares totaling $130 million at a $770 million valuation. Index Ventures led the deal with participation from Institutional Venture Partners and Atomico. Founded in 2011, SuperCell is currently the highest-grossing iOS game developer with “Clash of Clans” and “Hay Day” now bringing in $2.5 million of revenue daily.

 

Enlighted raised $20 million in Series C funding led by Rockport Capital for its lighting-controls technology, as it operates in a quickly changing market where the price for lighting emitting diodes is declining. The company makes sensors and software that is installed in commercial spaces and that helps decide when to dim lights. A newer application of the technology would also allow the sensors to measure temperature and occupancy, and control not just lighting but also air conditioning.

 

Also in today’s VentureWire, Reduxio Systems has raised a $9 million Series A round led by Jerusalem Venture Partners and Carmel Ventures. Reduxio is developing storage systems that make use of both flash memory and hard drives…Smart-home startup Zonoff has secured a $3.8 million Series A round for software that makes all kinds of smart-home devices work smoothly together and makes them easier to set up and control…and Crowdtilt has raised $12 million in Series A funding led by Andreessen Horowitz to bring a new twist to crowdfunding. Crowdtilt’s apps give groups an easy way to fund their own initiatives, rather than asking for money from strangers online.

 

(VentureWire is a daily newsletter with comprehensive analysis of all the investments, deals and personnel moves involving startups and their venture backers. For a two-week trial, visit our homepage, scroll to the bottom and click “try for free.”)

 

Elsewhere around the Web:

 

Launching mobile game apps is getting expensive. Case in point: ZeptoLab says it will spend about $1 million to launch “Cut the Rope: Time Travel” but it spent almost nothing to promote the first “Cut the Rope” game’s release in 2010, The Wall Street Journal reports. What has changed is the mobile games business, which is now so competitive that word-of-mouth marketing is no longer enough.

 

 Jon Flint, a founder of venture firm Polaris Partners, got into the hair-care business after his stylist suggested that he take a meeting with a colleague in New York who wanted to start a company. Flint and his partners turned to MIT”s Robert Langer to come up with innovative products. Flint talks with WSJ about the company that resulted, Living Proof, which is co-owned by actress Jennifer Aniston.

 

Silicon Valley startups are increasingly hiring testing companies to vet apps before releasing them to the public, WSJ reports.

Read Full Post »

Angel investing shifted slightly in 2012

Halo Report: Silicon Valley Bank, CB Insights, Angel resource Institute

Silicon Valley hosts the country’s most active venture capital firms but has only one of the top 10 angel groups from 2012, in terms of the number of deals done.

Senior Technology Reporter- Silicon Valley Business Journal

Amid reports of an angel funding boom that threatens to become a Series A crunch, a new report shows early stage investing in 2012 was relatively calm.

The median deal size shrank slightly to $600,000 from $625,000 the year before. Valuations of the companies funded held steady at $2.5 million.

Those aren’t numbers you might expect to see from an overheating market

Meanwhile, only one of the top 10 angel groups that did the most deals in the country last year is based in Silicon Valley — Sand Hill Angels which ranked No. 6.

Here are some other trends found in the annual Halo Report from Silicon Valley Bank, CB Insights and the Angel Resource Institute released on Tuesday, just before the three-day Angel Capital Association Summit kicks off in San Francisco on Wednesday.

— Shift from the hubs: California and New England, which account for two-thirds of venture investing, aren’t as dominant in angel fundings. The regions accounted for about 31 percent of angel deals in 2012, down from 35 percent the year before. The big gainers were the Southwest (13.3 percent in 2012 from 11.4 percent the year before) and the Northwest (9.3 percent vs. 7.8 percent).

— Life science drops: Life science investing sent from 25 percent of deals in 2011 to 21 percent of deals in 2012. The biggest jump was in mobile and telecom deals, which grew to 13.3 percent from 9.3 percent. In terms of money, Internet startups were No. 1 with 27.3 percent and mobile/telecom was No. 2 with 26.5 percent.

Amid reports of an angel funding boom that threatens to become a Series A crunch, a new report shows early stage investing in 2012 was relatively calm.

The median deal size shrank slightly to $600,000 from $625,000 the year before. Valuations of the companies funded held steady at $2.5 million.

Those aren’t numbers you might expect to see from an overheating market.

Meanwhile, only one of the top 10 angel groups that did the most deals in the country last year is based in Silicon Valley — Sand Hill Angels which ranked No. 6.

Here are some other trends found in the annual Halo Report from Silicon Valley Bank, CB Insights and the Angel Resource Institute released on Tuesday, just before the three-day Angel Capital Association Summit kicks off in San Francisco on Wednesday.

— Shift from the hubs: California and New England, which account for two-thirds of venture investing, aren’t as dominant in angel fundings. The regions accounted for about 31 percent of angel deals in 2012, down from 35 percent the year before. The big gainers were the Southwest (13.3 percent in 2012 from 11.4 percent the year before) and the Northwest (9.3 percent vs. 7.8 percent).

— Life science drops: Life science investing sent from 25 percent of deals in 2011 to 21 percent of deals in 2012. The biggest jump was in mobile and telecom deals, which grew to 13.3 percent from 9.3 percent. In terms of money, Internet startups were No. 1 with 27.3 percent and mobile/telecom was No. 2 with 26.5 percent.

— More co-invested deals: The number of fundings where angels co-invest with other types of investors, such as venture firms, in growing dramatically. It made up just 41.4 percent of deals in 2010 but was up to 69.3 percent last year. But the median round size of a co-invested funding actually dropped in that same time frame, going from $3.58 million in 2010 to $2.97 million.

— Revenue first: Most startups that got money in 2012 (63 percent) also had revenue to show before the angels opened their wallets.

— Convertibles are in: The number of deals involving convertible debt, essentially a loan that turns into equity at later rounds, rose. It made up 11 percent of deals in 2012, nearly double the share of the year before.

Cromwell Schubarth is the Senior Technology Reporter at the Business Journal. His phone number is 408.299.1823.

Read Full Post »

CAMARO 2012

Example: When skipping a stone, a flat, smooth rock is what rolls.

By Greg Barbera

Yes, we live in a modern age full of smartphones and YouTube tutorials, but there still is no substitute for hands-on learning through participation and repetition. After all, father-son bonding through oral traditions goes back to the dawn of time. My boys love to hear about how I spent my time as a kid in a pre-cable, pre-internet, pre-gaming world. And they love even more hearing about the skills I learned in my youth.

1. How to Skip a Stone: There are two key elements to successful stone skipping: the rock and the throw. Ideally, the rock should be flat and smooth on both sides. I personally favor a rock that looks like a paper football (triangular). Once you’ve found your rock, you’ll need to master the throw. Grip the rock between your forefinger and thumb. Aim to throw the rock straight, facing out from your palm, so its flight is perpendicular to the water’s surface. Flick your wrist on release (like you would a baseball), and watch your rock skip! Ten skips is impressive; anything over 20 is exceptional.

2. How to Climb a Tree: Much like skipping stones, how you choose your tree is crucial. Novices should select a tree in which they can reach up and grasp a branch while still standing on the ground. They will also want to make sure branches are within arm’s reach once they’re off the ground. An expert tree-climber will take the Tarzan approach and hug the tree’s trunk tightly while placing his feet heel-to-toe until he has reached his first branch. Most important: Make sure any and every branch will be able to support your weight. A good tip: If the branch is the size of your arm, stick as close as possible to the tree’s center where the branch and tree connect. A branch the size of your thigh or bigger should be able to hold you sufficiently farther away from the tree’s core.

3. How to Do Laundry: Teaching your son to wash his own clothes will go a long way. Different clothes can require different handling. These days, most washing machines are as complicated as your DVR remote, but there are two basic rules of thumb: 1) Wash whites in hot water; and 2) Wash colors in cold water.

4. How to Scale a Fence: You never know when you’ll need this skill—it might even be in a dream!—so it’s a good one to have. Fences come in different shapes and sizes. Wooden split-rail fences are best conquered by grasping the top rail with both hands and then stepping on the bottom rail with your lead foot. Lean back with your body weight and then explode up off your foot. Shift your shoulders and hips—in parallel formation—over the top rail. Your momentum will get you over. As you cross the top rail, let go with your hands, and bring your feet together as you land. As with trees, the best techniques for other types of fences will depend on what you can reach and how much weight it can support. Always make sure there’s a place for at least one hand and one foot on the fence at all times for optimal support of your body.

5. How to Cook a Meal: Like laundry, cooking doesn’t have to be as intimidating or confusing as some people make it seem. If you can read, you can cook. Seriously. All you have to do is follow the recipe. Two important things to remember: 1) Salt and pepper are your best friends (they will bring out the flavor of almost any food); and 2) Cook to taste (too often people don’t eat something because they don’t like the way it tastes). So if you can make a grilled cheese, then you can make a quesadilla. Try adding some of your favorite meats or veggies to a quesadilla to spice it up. And if you can boil water, you can make pasta.

For both work and play—holding down the home front and hitting the road—Silverado helps you get life done.

The trademarks mentioned in this story are held by their respective owners.

Greg Barbera of DadCentric is a dad blogger, beer magazine editor and the singer/bass player for the punk band Chest Pains. He lives in Chapel Hill, North Carolina. You can follow him on twitter @gregeboy, Tumblr, Facebook and Blogger.

Read Full Post »

« Newer Posts - Older Posts »