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China alarmed by US money printing

September 8, 2009 by Robert Tillman

Here is an article from The Telegraph.

The US Federal Reserve’s policy of printing money to buy Treasury debt threatens to set off a serious decline of the dollar and compel China to redesign its foreign reserve policy, according to a top member of the Communist hierarchy.

Cheng Siwei, former vice-chairman of the Standing Committee and now head of China’s green energy drive, said Beijing was dismayed by the Fed’s recourse to “credit easing”.

“We hope there will be a change in monetary policy as soon as they have positive growth again,” he said at the Ambrosetti Workshop, a policy gathering on Lake Como.

“If they keep printing money to buy bonds it will lead to inflation, and after a year or two the dollar will fall hard. Most of our foreign reserves are in US bonds and this is very difficult to change, so we will diversify incremental reserves into euros, yen, and other currencies,” he said.

China’s reserves are more than – $2 trillion, the world’s largest.

“Gold is definitely an alternative, but when we buy, the price goes up. We have to do it carefully so as not to stimulate the markets,” he added.

The comments suggest that China has become the driving force in the gold market and can be counted on to
buy whenever there is a price dip, putting a floor under any correction.

Mr Cheng said the Fed’s loose monetary policy was stoking an unstable asset boom in China. “If we raise interest rates, we will be flooded with hot money. We have to wait for them. If they raise, we raise.

“Credit in China is too loose. We have a bubble in the housing market and in stocks so we have to be very careful, because this could fall down.”

Mr Cheng said China had learned from the West that it is a mistake for central banks to target retail price inflation and take their eye off assets.

“This is where Greenspan went wrong from 2000 to 2004,” he said. “He thought everything was alright because inflation was low, but assets absorbed the liquidity.”

Read the full article here.

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WHAT’S IN STORE, INFLATION OR DEFAULT?

September 7, 2009 by Robert Tillman

Here is a story from the Powerline Blog.

“I’ve assumed that the profligate spending and borrowing planned by the Democrats in Congress and the White House will run up a debt that we and our children just can’t pay, so, in the time-honored tradition of banana republics, the Obama administration or its successors will inflate our currency and repay its creditors (China, mostly) in devalued dollars. Thus, I’ve been buying gold. I’ve assumed that an actual default by the United States government is unthinkable.

Jeffrey Rogers Hummel, however, disagrees. He writes: Why Default on U.S. Treasuries Is Likely. HIs thesis is that times have changed, and it isn’t so easy to inflate our way out of debt:

Many predict that…the government will inflate its way out of this future bind, using Federal Reserve monetary expansion to fill the shortfall between outlays and receipts. But I believe, in contrast, that it is far more likely that the United States will be driven to an outright default on Treasury securities, openly reneging on the interest due on its formal debt and probably repudiating part of the principal.

Hummel explains that most money is now created privately by banks and other institutions, not the government, so that “[o]nly in poor countries, such as Zimbabwe, with their primitive financial sectors, does inflation remain lucrative for governments.”

A steep tax increase won’t really work for the Obama administration either. ”

To read the full article, click here.

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AltaRock suspends test project

September 4, 2009 by Steven R. Gerbsman

Not according to plan one can say! Here is som gruesome news from Cleaninvest.

“On 2 Sep 2009, geothermal startup AltaRock Energy said it has suspended drilling at its demonstration project in California due to geologic anomalies. The startup said it encountered a number of physical difficulties at the site while drilling its first well.

However, the company said it will keep developing its engineered geothermal systems (EGS) technology and is evaluating alternative well locations, both at the Geysers, a site north of San Francisco, and elsewhere. The news comes as a blow to AltaRock’s demonstration project, which is backed by $6.24 million in funds from the U.S. Department of Energy, with the possibility of $2.76 million more.

In 2008, AltaRock raised $26.25 million from Google.org (which contributed $6.25 million), Khosla Ventures, Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers, Advanced Technology Ventures and Vulcan Capital.”

Click here to read the whole article.

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After slow start, U.S. deal making set to rise

September 3, 2009 by Steven R. Gerbsman

Here is a good analysis on the business outlook from Reuters.

“BOSTON/NEW YORK (Reuters) – The next few months could see more mergers and acquisitions in the U.S. manufacturing sector as memories of recent market highs fade and some smaller companies find they need financial backing.

Executives at top manufacturers, including United Technologies Corp (UTX.N), had hoped the recession would provide ample opportunities to scoop up bargains this year, but were stymied when potential targets balked at selling when stock prices were testing 13-year lows.

But all of that may be changing, particularly if small manufacturers find themselves scrambling for cash when demand recovers and they need to restart production lines and bring back staff.

“As volume comes back for many suppliers, many companies, this may actually be the stress point for them relative to their financing needs,” Patrick Campbell, chief financial officer of 3M Co (MMM.N), told investors on Wednesday.

“This could actually be the point where we start to see some companies that maybe become a little more distressed … We’ve got our eyes wide open on that.”

Industrial conglomerate Danaher Corp (DHR.N) said on Wednesday it plans to buy two makers of scientific instruments for a total of $1.1 billion in cash, including a unit of Canada’s MDS Inc (MDS.TO) and Life Technologies Corp’s (LIFE.O) stake in a joint venture with MDS.

FIXATED ON THE PAST

So far this year, U.S. companies have announced $516.3 billion in deals, according to Thomson Reuters data. That is down 49.1 percent from the same period in 2008.

As potential buyers see it, the biggest roadblock to getting deals done this year has been that sellers are fixated on the past value of their shares. The Standard & Poor’s capital goods index .GSPIC is down about 34 percent over the past year.

“A lot of players are still hung up with their 52-week high,” United Tech Chief Executive Louis Chenevert told an investor meeting this week.”

Read the full article here.

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