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10 things in tech you need to know today

no mans sky The PlayStation 4 game “No Man’s Sky.” Hello Games / wanderon1

Good morning! Here’s the tech news you need to know to start your week:

1. Lyft reportedly tried to sell itself to Uber and several other companies, but failed. The ride-hailing startup is refusing to comment on the report.

2. Facebook has made a surprising move that could save its one shrinking business. Revenue from payments and fees has been trending downward, but its new “all-new PC gaming platform” could help to reverse that.

3. The National Security Agency hack proves Apple was right to fight the NSA. Some security experts view the recent leak of NSA spying tools as a vindication of Apple’s stance on user privacy.

4. The CEO of $3.8 billion (£2.9 billion) Slack has a smart idea to help people get off work early. Stewart Butterfield thinks chat bots will help Slack become “the browser and the command line for enterprise.”

5. We interviewed the Microsoft exec who made a computer so good that even Apple wanted to copy it. Panos Panay, Microsoft’s corporate vice president of devices, is behind the Surface Pro 4 and the Surface Book.

6. Lyft made a huge bet on Apple’s secret smash hit, Swift, and it paid off in a big way. The ride-hailing startup rewrote its app in Swift, a programming language created by Apple.

7. Samsung is closing down Milk Music, its music streaming service. Variety reports it will shutter on September 22.

8. Photos of what looks like a new, smaller PlayStation 4 have appeared online. Sony is expected to launch the the PS4 “Neo” in the coming weeks.

9. A Chinese selfie app is getting ready for a $1 billion (£770 million) initial public offering, The Wall Street Journal reports. Meitu is going to go public on the Hong Kong stock exchange.

10. Apple is losing its lead in smartphones. Samsung is outdesigning and outperforming Apple’s iPhone.

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11 reasons to be excited about the future of technology

In the year 1820, a person could expect to live less than 35 years, 94% of the global population lived in extreme poverty, and less that 20% of the population was literate. Today, human life expectancy is over 70 years, less that 10% of the global population lives in extreme poverty, and over 80% of people are literate. These improvements are due mainly to advances in technology, beginning in the industrial age and continuing today in the information age.

There are many exciting new technologies that will continue to transform the world and improve human welfare. Here are eleven of them.

1. Self-Driving Cars

Self-driving cars exist today that are safer than human-driven cars in most driving conditions. Over the next 3–5 years they‘ll get even safer, and will begin to go mainstream.

 

The World Health Organization estimates that 1.25 million people die from car-related injuries per year. Half of the deaths are pedestrians, bicyclists, and motorcyclists hit by cars. Cars are the leading cause of death for people ages 15–29 years old.

Just as cars reshaped the world in the 20th century, so will self-driving cars in the 21st century. In most cities, between 20–30% of usable space is taken up by parking spaces, and most cars are parked about 95% of the time. Self-driving cars will be in almost continuous use (most likely hailed from a smartphone app), thereby dramatically reducing the need for parking. Cars will communicate with one another to avoid accidents and traffic jams, and riders will be able to spend commuting time on other activities like work, education, and socializing.

dixon graphicTech Insider

2. Clean Energy

Attempts to fight climate change by reducing the demand for energy haven’t worked. Fortunately, scientists, engineers, and entrepreneurs have been working hard on the supply side to make clean energy convenient and cost-effective.

Due to steady technological and manufacturing advances, the price of solar cells has dropped 99.5% since 1977. Solar will soon be more cost efficient than fossil fuels. The cost of wind energy has also dropped to an all-time low, and in the last decade represented about a third of newly installed US energy capacity.

Forward thinking organizations are taking advantage of this. For example, in India there is an initiative to convert airports to self-sustaining clean energy.

Tesla is making high-performance, affordable electric cars, and installing electric charging stations worldwide.

Tesla Charging A Tesla, charging. Tesla

There are hopeful signs that clean energy could soon be reaching a tipping point. For example, in Japan, there are now more electric charging stations than gas stations.

And Germany produces so much renewable energy, it sometimes produces even more than it can use.

3. Virtual and Augmented Reality

Computer processors only recently became fast enough to power comfortable and convincing virtual and augmented reality experiences. Companies like Facebook, Google, Apple, and Microsoft are investing billions of dollars to make VR and AR more immersive, comfortable, and affordable.

People sometimes think VR and AR will be used only for gaming, but over time they will be used for all sorts of activities. For example, we’ll use them to manipulate 3-D objects.

To meet with friends and colleagues from around the world. And even for medical applications, like treating phobias or helping rehabilitate paralysis victims.

VR and AR have been dreamed about by science fiction fans for decades. In the next few years, they’ll finally become a mainstream reality.

4. Drones and Flying Cars

“Roads? Where we’re going we don’t need… roads.” — Dr. Emmet Brown

GPS started out as a military technology but is now used to hail taxis, get mapping directions, and hunt Pokémon. Likewise, drones started out as a military technology, but are increasingly being used for a wide range of consumer and commercial applications.

For example, drones are being used to inspect critical infrastructure like bridges and power lines, to survey areas struck by natural disasters, and many other creative uses like fighting animal poaching.

Amazon and Google are building drones to deliver household items.

Amazon Drone Smaller Reuters/Gus Ruelas / Amazon

The startup Zipline uses drones to deliver medical supplies to remote villages that can’t be accessed by roads.

There is also a new wave of startups working on flying cars (including two funded by the cofounder of Google, Larry Page).

Flying cars use the same advanced technology used in drones but are large enough to carry people. Due to advances in materials, batteries, and software, flying cars will be significantly more affordable and convenient than today’s planes and helicopters.

5. Artificial Intelligence

It may be a hundred years before a computer beats humans at Go — maybe even longer. — New York Times, 1997

Artificial intelligence has made rapid advances in the last decade, due to new algorithms and massive increases in data collection and computing power.

AI can be applied to almost any field. For example, in photography an AI technique called artistic style transfer transforms photographs into the style of a given painter.

Google built an AI system that controls its datacenter power systems, saving hundreds of millions of dollars in energy costs.

The broad promise of AI is to liberate people from repetitive mental tasks the same way the industrial revolution liberated people from repetitive physical tasks.

Some people worry that AI will destroy jobs. History has shown that while new technology does indeed eliminate jobs, it also creates new and better jobs to replace them. For example, with advent of the personal computer, the number of typographer jobs dropped, but the increase in graphic designer jobs more than made up for it.

Master of Go Board Game Is Walloped by Google Computer Program” — New York Times, 2016

It is much easier to imagine jobs that will go away than new jobs that will be created. Today millions of people work as app developers, ride-sharing drivers, drone operators, and social media marketers— jobs that didn’t exist and would have been difficult to even imagine ten years ago.

6. Pocket Supercomputers for Everyone

By 2020, 80% of adults on earth will have an internet-connected smartphone. An iPhone 6 has about 2 billion transistors, roughly 625 times more transistors than a 1995 Intel Pentium computer. Today’s smartphones are what used to be considered supercomputers.

vatican mobile Crowds watching the pope in St. Peter’s Square in 2005 and 2013. Notice anything different? AP

Internet-connected smartphones give ordinary people abilities that, just a short time ago, were only available to an elite few:

“Right now, a Masai warrior on a mobile phone in the middle of Kenya has better mobile communications than the president did 25 years ago. If he’s on a smart phone using Google, he has access to more information than the U.S. president did just 15 years ago.” — Peter Diamandis

7. Cryptocurrencies and Blockchains

Protocols are the plumbing of the internet. Most of the protocols we use today were developed decades ago by academia and government. Since then, protocol development mostly stopped as energy shifted to developing proprietary systems like social networks and messaging apps.

Cryptocurrency and blockchain technologies are changing this by providing a new business model for internet protocols. This year alone, hundreds of millions of dollars were raised for a broad range of innovative blockchain-based protocols.

“If you asked people in 1989 what they needed to make their life better, it was unlikely that they would have said a decentralized network of information nodes that are linked using hypertext.” — Farmer & Farmer

Protocols based on blockchains also have capabilities that previous protocols didn’t. For example, Ethereum is a new blockchain-based protocol that can be used to create smart contracts and trusted databases that are immune to corruption and censorship.

8. High-Quality Online Education

While college tuition skyrockets, anyone with a smartphone can study almost any topic online, accessing educational content that is mostly free and increasingly high-quality.
Encyclopedia Britannica used to cost $1,400. Now anyone with a smartphone can instantly access Wikipedia. You used to have to go to school or buy programming books to learn computer programming. Now you can learn from a community of over 40 million programmers at Stack Overflow. YouTube has millions of hours of free tutorials and lectures, many of which are produced by top professors and universities.

The quality of online education is getting better all the time. For the last 15 years, MIT has been recording lectures and compiling materials that cover over 2000 courses.

As perhaps the greatest research university in the world, MIT has always been ahead of the trends. Over the next decade, expect many other schools to follow MIT’s lead.

9. Better Food through Science

Earth is running out of farmable land and fresh water. This is partly because our food production systems are incredibly inefficient. It takes an astounding 1799 gallons of water to produce 1 pound of beef.

Fortunately, a variety of new technologies are being developed to improve our food system.
For example, entrepreneurs are developing new food products that are tasty and nutritious substitutes for traditional foods but far more environmentally friendly. The startup Impossible Foods invented meat products that look and taste like the real thing but are actually made of plants.

Impossible Foods An Impossible Foods burger. Screenshot / YouTube

Their burger uses 95% less land, 74% less water, and produces 87% less greenhouse gas emissions than traditional burgers. Other startups are creating plant-based replacements for milk, eggs, and other common foods. Soylent is a healthy, inexpensive meal replacement that uses advanced engineered ingredients that are much friendlier to the environment than traditional ingredients.

Some of these products are developed using genetic modification, a powerful scientific technique that has been widely mischaracterized as dangerous. According to a study by the Pew Organization, 88% of scientists think genetically modified foods are safe.

Another exciting development in food production is automated indoor farming. Due to advances in solar energy, sensors, lighting, robotics, and artificial intelligence, indoor farms have become viable alternatives to traditional outdoor farms.

Compared to traditional farms, automated indoor farms use roughly 10 times less water and land. Crops are harvested many more times per year, there is no dependency on weather, and no need to use pesticides.

10. Computerized Medicine

Until recently, computers have only been at the periphery of medicine, used primarily for research and record keeping. Today, the combination of computer science and medicine is leading to a variety of breakthroughs.

For example, just fifteen years ago, it cost $3B to sequence a human genome. Today, the cost is about a thousand dollars and continues to drop. Genetic sequencing will soon be a routine part of medicine.

Genetic sequencing generates massive amounts of data that can be analyzed using powerful data analysis software. One application is analyzing blood samples for early detection of cancer. Further genetic analysis can help determine the best course of treatment.

Another application of computers to medicine is in prosthetic limbs.

Soon we’ll have the technology to control prothetic limbs with just our thoughts using brain-to-machine interfaces.
Computers are also becoming increasingly effective at diagnosing diseases. An artificial intelligence system recently diagnosed a rare disease that human doctors failed to diagnose by finding hidden patterns in 20 million cancer records.

11. A New Space Age

Since the beginning of the space age in the 1950s, the vast majority of space funding has come from governments. But that funding has been in decline: for example, NASA’s budget dropped from about 4.5% of the federal budget in the 1960s to about 0.5% of the federal budget today.

The good news is that private space companies have started filling the void. These companies provide a wide range of products and services, including rocket launches, scientific research, communications and imaging satellites, and emerging speculative business models like asteroid mining.

The most famous private space company is Elon Musk’s SpaceX, which successfully sent rockets into space that can return home to be reused.

SpaceX A SpaceX launch. SpaceX
Perhaps the most intriguing private space company is Planetary Resources, which is trying to pioneer a new industry: mining minerals from asteroids.

If successful, asteroid mining could lead to a new gold rush in outer space. Like previous gold rushes, this could lead to speculative excess, but also dramatically increased funding for new technologies and infrastructure.

These are just a few of the amazing technologies we’ll see developed in the coming decades. 2016 is just the beginning of a new age of wonders. As futurist Kevin Kelly says:

“If we could climb into a time machine, journey 30 years into the future, and from that vantage look back to today, we’d realize that most of the greatest products running the lives of citizens in 2050 were not invented until after 2016. People in the future will look at their holodecks and wearable virtual reality contact lenses and downloadable avatars and AI interfaces and say, ‘Oh, you didn’t really have the internet’ — or whatever they’ll call it — ’back then.’

“So, the truth: Right now, today, in 2016 is the best time to start up. There has never been a better day in the whole history of the world to invent something. There has never been a better time with more opportunities, more openings, lower barriers, higher benefit/ risk ratios, better returns, greater upside than now. Right now, this minute. This is the moment that folks in the future will look back at and say, ‘Oh, to have been alive and well back then!’

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Analysts are going gaga for Facebook’s earnings beat

mark zuckerberg facebook happy smiling virtual reality oculusFrank Zauritz – Pool /Getty ImagesFacebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg.
Facebook-A $118.84

 

Facebook smashed it.

The social-network giant beat expectations when it reported its first-quarter earnings on Wednesday, sending stock soaring in after-hours trading by 8% to an all-time high. The growth comes off the back of the company’s strong mobile business.

CEO Mark Zuckerberg is also proposing a new share structure that will allow him to give away the majority of his fortune to charity while retaining voting control of the company.

Analysts are responding uniformly positive to the news, raising their price targets for the company as they reiterate overweight/buy ratings across the board.

We’ve rounded up a selection of reactions from analysts — but first, here are the key numbers, via Business Insider’s Jillian D’Onfro:

  • Earnings per share: $0.77 versus $0.62 expected.
  • Revenue: $5.38 billion versus $5.25 billion expected, up 52% year-over-year. Ad revenue is up 57% year-over-year.
  • Monthly active users: 1.65 billion versus 1.62 billion expected.
  • Daily active users: 1.09 billion on average for March. This quarter, 66% of Facebook’s monthly active users were daily active users, which is up from 65% during the same period last year.
  • Total costs and expenses were $3.37 billion, up 29% year-over-year, and capital expenditures were $1.13 billion.
  • Free cash flow for the first quarter of 2016 was $1.85 billion.
  • Facebook has 13,600 employees, up 35% from the same time last year.
  • Most of Facebook’s revenue comes from North America and Europe, with only about 24% ($1.3 billion) coming from Asia-Pacific and the rest of the world. But those areas account for 66% of its monthly active users. The average revenue per user in those regions is still tiny, compared to in the US: $1.56 and $0.91, respectively, versus $12.43 and $3.98 in the US and Europe.

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DAVID ROSENBERG: Janet Yellen’s use of one word tells us something has gone wrong

David RosenbergScreenshot via Bloomberg TVDavid Rosenberg

In a truly seminal speech on March 29th, Janet Yellen used the title, The Outlook, Uncertainty, and Monetary Policy.

I have been in this business for 30 years and have never seen a central bank chief slip the word “uncertainty” into the headline.

Not just that, but she invoked the term no fewer than 10 times to describe the domestic and global macro and market backdrop — this even as we pass seven years since the worst point of the Great Recession and seven years into the most radical easing of monetary policy in recorded history.

It begs the question: what has gone wrong?

Well, the obvious answer is that monetary policy simply is a weak antidote to the fundamental and structural impediments to global growth.

The world is still grappling with a problem of over-indebtedness. This is particularly acute in China as the country simultaneously rebalances from overinvestment in the industrial sector to consumer services.

Germany is following a policy of austerity to the detriment of its Eurozone allies (in part due to trust issues with its partners or possibly just a pervasive culture of frugality) -— running a budget surplus, and a current account surplus-to-GDP ratio of over 8% (Germany has now had current account surpluses for 15 years in a row).

So yes, there are lingering debt and competitive hurdles in the way of European growth, but Germany’s refusal to share its economic engine with its neighbors has been a hindrance to say the least.

In Japan, Abenomics has hit a wall as the country continues to weave in and out of a recession with consumer spending and incomes stagnant. The experiment with negative interest rates has failed so far, highlighted by the firming yen and the renewed stranglehold placed on the country’s export sector.

The Brexit vote on June 23rd is a classic fork in the road for the European Union, and the 64% vote (non-binding) in the Netherlands against the treaty with Ukraine (for greater economic ties) underscores the contempt that many in the region have towards the union. All the more so with the refugee and terrorism files, partly the product of open (porous more like it) borders.

Spain’s coalition government is about to fall. Italy’s banks are in disarray. Prime Minister Hollande has backed down on French reforms. Greece is at risk of defaulting again this summer.

Greece riot protestReuters/Alexandros AvramidisA Greek farmer (R) hits a riot police officer with a Greek flag during a demonstration against planned pension reforms in the northern city of Thessaloniki, Greece.

So it is clear the European Union is splintering.

That said, the soft global background only goes so far in explaining why the U.S. economy has been on such soft ground this cycle.

After all, nearly 90% of U.S. GDP is autonomous. The U.S. economy does not reside on an island, that is true, but the global economy really is a two-bit player — a truly decimal place impact.

Where it matters is whether global market anxiety leads to an undesired tightening in domestic financial conditions or if the U.S. dollar rises too far too fast. To be sure, both of these have been in play at different times since last summer, but over time, U.S. growth is much more a local story.

The big story is how the U.S. has shot itself in the foot many times over.

While Obamacare may have been good social policy, it froze the small business sector two years after the detonation of the housing sector and capital markets. One shock layered on top of another.

Fiscal policy was never loosened enough and the move to tighten it so dramatically in 2013 via spending restraint and broad-based tax hikes has exerted dampening economic effects to this day. The structural component of the deficit, once as high as 7%, is now close to zero, as revenue growth (the tax take) is exceeding program spending growth currently by a three to one ratio.

Meanwhile, the Republican who shut down the government four years ago is now in second spot in the GOP primaries, and the leader has become the poster boy for the anti-free-trade movement.

Ted CruzAP Photo/Mike GrollTed Cruz

The tax code has not undergone a face-lift in three decades. We have a White House now making it up as it goes along when it comes to merger activity, adding to business uncertainty over tax and regulatory policy —which is running at historically high levels.

So we have supply side sclerosis in the country, where the lack of budget policy clarity has led to a freeze-up in capital spending and a record-low pace of growth in the private sector capital stock. This in turn has impaired productivity growth, as Janet Yellen herself warned repeatedly before she took over the helm.

Sadly, this is more the domain of fiscal policy than monetary policy. Here we are, more than a year later, with no movement on the fiscal front, and a productivity performance that has gone from bad to worse.

We have endured an erosion in the growth of the capital stock that is impairing productivity. The other input to the production process, labor, is also seeing ever-present constraints.

Because of birth and fertility rates that have gone in reverse, coupled with a decline in immigration (to an extent that would most assuredly bring a smile to The Donald’s face), we have a situation where the growth in the working-age population has slowed to a mere 0.5% annual rate, less than half of what was typical in the past.

In contrast to the old boomer-led cycles of the 1970s, ‘80s and ‘90s, female participation rates are no longer rising, and the rapid growth in two-income families that helped juice up the spending power of cycles gone by, is long over.

So much of the comparatively sluggish growth this cycle is purely demographic.

Then we have a slate of socio-economic factors, many of which have scars from the Great Recession.

Employment among males aged 20 to 24 has not increased in eight years and the employment rate for this group is extremely depressed even if off the bottom. Ditto for those aged 25 to 34.

guy reading on a couch booksp.v/FlickrGuy on the couch.

As for those fertility rates, what woman wants to date, let alone marry, a guy who’s still living with mom and dad? Indeed, an unheard-of 35% of males aged between 18 and 34 live at home.

Part of the problem, a big part, is the dramatic surge in student debt, now equivalent to $100,000 per college grad, and seven years into the recovery, the delinquency rate sits at 8%. So kiss your FICO score goodbye and kiss your ability to secure a mortgage goodbye, too — and so say hello to a massive reversal in the U.S. homeownership rate which is in such steep descent that it is starting to look more and more European.

On top of that, the household sector, at the margin, continues to focus on repairing balance sheets as opposed to embarking on a spending binge, even with incomes picking up recently and the de facto tax windfall from sharply lower gas prices.

Debt-to-income and debt-to-asset ratios are still receding and savings rates trending higher as the typical boomer hitting 60 looks at the life expectancy tables and sees he or she has 25 years left on earth and the dread realization sets in that they haven’t come close to preparing financially for the not-so-golden years that lie ahead.

There is this other little matter called income inequality, which has become a global issue and indeed part of the discourse during this primary season. Always good to see a revolt being conducted peacefully and within the political process (good thing Maximilien Robespierre isn’t around).

But this anti-establishment feel to the primaries, whether it is in the Trump or Sanders camp, certainly does resonate. This feeling of being left out or left behind.

U.S. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks at a campaign event in an airplane hanger in Rome, New York April 12, 2016. REUTERS/Carlo AllegriThomson ReutersU.S. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks at a campaign event in an airplane hanger in Rome, New York

I mean, there is nothing wrong with building wealth, but remember that democracy and capitalism are always dancing with each other on a pin.

You don’t want to have too many trailing behind because history shows us time after time that this triggers discontent among the masses, instability and inevitably, upheaval.

The Gini coefficient— a measure of income dispersion — has risen to unprecedented levels.

This by no means suggests that folks at the lower income echelons aren’t better off than they were 10, 20 or 30 years ago, but it means their share of the national income pie is getting smaller, and if you don’t think people, by their nature, aren’t constantly looking over their shoulder, then go and take a Psychology 101 course at your nearest university or community college.

It wouldn’t be so bad if the “middle class” wasn’t disappearing, because what its depletion has done is polarize society — which is why the rancor is so loud during this pre-election circus otherwise known as the U.S. primary season.

The near eradication of the middle class has coincided with a multi-year decline in the labor share of national income, and only very recently has this started to carve out a bottom and hook up (a clear reason why profit margins have started to roll over).

Of course, even as the spoils now are diverted more towards the personal sector, the implications for GDP growth which is all about “spending” are unclear given the uptrend in the savings rate.

A rising savings rate amidst lingering high excess capacity in a global basis means that deflationary pressures are not going to go away.

Central banks will be forced to offset these pressures by ongoing monetary accommodation, though as we are seeing with quantitative easing and negative rates in the euro area and Japan, central banks are losing their effectiveness.

So all this means lower for a lot longer — low growth, low inflation, and low interest rates — from an investment strategy standpoint, it is all about “Safety & Income at a Reasonable Price”, all over again.

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Here are the technologies that are making drones safer and accelerating adoption

Drone Hardware MarketBI Intelligence

Drones turned the corner in 2015 to become a popular consumer device, while a framework for regulation that legitimizes drones in the US began to take shape. Technological and regulatory barriers still exist to further drone adoption.

Drone manufacturers and software providers are quickly developing technologies like geo-fencing and collision avoidance that will make flying drones safer. The accelerating pace of drone adoption is also pushing governments to create new regulations that balance safety and innovation. The FAA is set to release new regulations this spring could help boost adoption. Safer technology and better regulation will open up new applications for drones in the commercial sector, including drone delivery programs like Amazon’s Prime Air and Google’s Project Wing initiatives.

In a new BI Intelligence report, we forecast sales revenues for consumer, enterprise, and military drones. We also project the growth of drone shipments for consumers and enterprises. We detail several of world’s major drone suppliers and examine trends in drone adoption among several leading industries. We examine the regulatory landscape in several markets and explain how technologies like obstacle avoidance and drone-to-drone communications will impact drone adoption.

Enterprise Drone ShipmentsBI Intelligence

 

Here are some of the key takeaways:

  • We project revenues from drones sales to top $12 billion in 2021, up form just over $8 billion last year.
  • Shipments of consumer drones will more than quadruple over the next five years, fueled by increasing price competition and new technologies that make flying drones easier for beginners.
  • Growth in the enterprise sector will outpace the consumer sector in both shipments and revenues as regulations open up new use cases in the US and EU, the two biggest potential markets for enterprise drones.
  • Technologies like geo-fencing and collision avoidance will make flying drones safer and make regulators feel more comfortable with larger numbers of drones taking to the skies.
  • Right now FAA regulations have limited commercial drones to a select few industries and applications like aerial surveying in the agriculture, mining, and oil and gas sectors.
  • The military sector will continue to lead all other sectors in drone spending during our forecast period thanks to the high cost of military drones and the growing number of countries seeking to acquire them.

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