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   Inside the Johns Hopkins finance class that’s ‘guaranteed’ to get you a job on Wall Street

Steve Hanke Johns Hopkins finance classPortia Crowe/Business InsiderProfessor Steve Hanke designed the course to produce “the top people in the country.”

Kelly Chu stands at the front of the room and explains a complex spreadsheet displayed on a projector.

With precision she describes the discounted free cash-flow model she built of a food-services and construction company, and walks through its revenue-growth assumptions before making a recommendation on whether or not to invest.

Chu is not a wealth manager or an investment banker. Wearing flip-flops and jeans, the 21-year-old is a junior at Johns Hopkins University, and she’s presenting to her applied economics and finance class, a course at a non-Wall Street target school that guarantees its alumni top jobs on the Street, according to the professor.

Chu’s classmates are other undergraduates (during a discussion of the Russian-ruble crisis of 1998, a student points out she was 4 years old). They look like other 20-somethings in a Friday-afternoon seminar, with their heads in hand and droopy-eyed faces buried in laptops. You wouldn’t know they’re even paying attention, but when the professor tosses out an unexpected question — about an intricate math equation or the name of a Nobel laureate — they snap back answers in seconds.

Professor Steve Hanke, who’s been at Hopkins for 45 years, created the course two decades ago. It’s evolved but has always focused on “producing the top people in the country.”

Steve Hanke Johns Hopkins finance classPortia Crowe/Business InsiderThese students are heading to jobs and internships on Wall Street.

Most graduates become analysts, though a minority go into trading. (Hanke has been a currencies and commodities trader for over 50 years.) They all come away with job offers from their first-choice banks or hedge funds, despite Hopkins not having a business school.Of the 20 students of Hanke’s who are graduating this year, eight are going to JPMorgan. The rest took jobs at Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, UBS, Deutsche Bank, Jefferies, Stifel, T. Rowe Price, Campbell and Co., and Millennium Management. Most of the sophomores and juniors took summer internships on Wall Street too.

Danny Elkins, who’s graduating in May, said he feels indebted to Hanke for the experience.

“We don’t have the kind of resources or the kind of connections of Princeton or Harvard or Duke,” he said. “But if you’re in this class, then I think you have something great to talk about during interviews. It can give you good ideas for stock pitches in interviews.

“I don’t think my situation would have ended up like it did if I hadn’t had the opportunity,” he said.

Elkins’ situation turned out well: He got five job offers from top firms and will be heading to JPMorgan’s asset-management department.

Steve Hanke Johns Hopkins finance classPortia Crowe/Business InsiderStudents build their own models every two weeks.

Students are allowed to take the course for credit up to three or four times, but the challenge is getting into it.Students have to submit résumés and transcripts and a have one-on-one interview with Hanke. (The bar is high: Most students have at least 3.7 GPAs.)

Every two weeks students build a model on a company assigned by Hanke or his informal assistant, Ryan Guttridge, a fellow at the Johns Hopkins Institute for Applied Economics.

On off weeks, students write papers about their models, and then spend class time analyzing their findings together. Most MBA programs, Hanke notes, require students to build only one or two models throughout their entire program.

That they’re building these models so frequently helps give them a leg up, but the real reason for their success could be the unusual type of models they’re building.

Steve Hanke Johns Hopkins finance classPortia Crowe/Business InsiderThe models are based on a unique discount free cash-flow system developed by Professor Hanke and Ryan Guttridge, an informal participant in the class.

Hanke and Guttridge developed their own modeling system to teach to the students. They build free cash-flow statements from scratch — meaning from SEC filings, not from data providers or other unverifiable sources.Then they measure drivers of cash flow, like revenue and margins, via Monte Carlo simulations, a technique that uses random sampling and runs multiple trials to home in on the probability of outcomes.

They end up with a distribution of share prices, instead of a single point value or price estimate, and look to buy stocks that are priced on the cheaper side of the distribution and have a higher probability of the price increases.

“Ultimately, when you’re buying a stock, you’re buying a series of cash flows — a series of expected cash,” Guttridge said.

For him, modern finance faces a big problem because most analysts’ forecasts ignore that distribution. “What isn’t in the analysis is that the risk has totally changed,” as share prices increase, he said.

The students follow a nearly 50-step process to build these models:

And while it may not be as sexy as rattling off a price estimate on the spot in a job interview, in a way this training gives the students some control in interviews.

“They’re interested but they don’t know a lot about it, so instead of them grilling you and putting you on your toes, you’re kind of explaining to them what you did,” says Elkins.

Steve Hanke Johns Hopkins finance classPortia Crowe/Business InsiderMost of the students are undergrads, but they’re beating out MBA grads for Wall Street positions.

Plus, he said, “When you start out the interview and you start talking about the nuances of the model … you can skip the basic accounting questions, and it allows you to differentiate yourself.”Guttridge said their model is not unique; it closely resembles billionaire investor Warren Buffett’s thinking, he said. Especially the part of Buffett’s 2013 letter where he talks about buying a farm.

“He says, ‘I’m going to buy the farm and on average I know what the farm’s going to produce,'” Guttridge said. “That’s exactly what we do. We just have a very formal, fairly rigorous framework around it.”

Guttridge said their model is akin, philosophically, to private equity firms. That’s because the distributions they come up with are most accurate when they’re not faced with time constraints, and private equity firms don’t have the kinds of calendar-year deadlines that investment banks do.

So it makes sense that many of their students wind up in private equity.

Steve Hanke Johns Hopkins finance classPortia Crowe/Business InsiderHanke and Guttridge said they’d hire their own students if they could beat Wall Street to it.

Some recent grads have even been recruited to private equity right out of college, according to Hanke, which is extremely rare. Usually, those firms recruit the cream of the crop from analysts at major investment banks.”I think the students are higher quality and more skilled than the first-year analysts that are on the Street right now,” said Hanke.

They’re high enough quality that he and Guttridge regularly use their classwork to make investment decisions for their wealth-management firm, Hanke-Guttridge Capital Management, which they founded in 2013.

They’d hire their own graduates, they said, if they only could beat Wall Street to it.

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If you don’t buy this version of the Apple Watch, you’re making a huge mistake

Apple WatchBusiness Insider / Matt Johnston

After seeing all the reviews, watching all the interviews, and hearing Tim Cook sing its praises, I finally decided to get over to an Apple Store and try on the Apple Watch for myself.

As I’ve written before, I’m not a smartwatch rookie. I’ve been wearing a Samsung Gear Fit for eight months, and I’m a big fan of both that device and the concept of a smartwatch in general. So I know what it feels like to wear one of these things on your wrist every day.

I was eager to see how the Apple Watch compared.

One thing was clear to me within 20 seconds of my Apple Watch appointment: The cheapest version made of aluminum, the Apple Watch Sport, is the best. There is almost no reason to choose any other model as your first Apple Watch. Unless you have a ton of extra money, the Sport is the best option.

The Apple Watch Sport (42mm) was the first one to be placed on my wrist, and it felt fantastic.

It was soft but not slippery, thanks to the rubbery sport band that let the Watch cling to my wrist. It attaches to the aluminum casing on the watch seamlessly and looked quite nice. I unbuckled and buckled it back up a couple of times to see how easy it was to take on and off. I found it to be even easier than my current smartwatch, which I regularly have to perform finger gymnastics to attach.

It was great.

Apple WatchBusiness Insider / Matt JohnstonThe Sport band.

Then I asked the Apple Store employee whether I could try the Milanese loop band, which is generally one of the most popular early bands. I was not a fan. It leaves me wondering what all the fuss is about with this band. It got off to a good start. The Milanese loop goes on about as easy as a band possibly could. It fastens with a magnet, sort of like those slap bracelets from the ’90s. The stainless steel mesh band looks pretty nice, too, but that’s where all positive aspects of my experience with this band end.

I found the Milanese loop to be very uncomfortable. I didn’t like the feeling of the metal links against my wrist. But the worst aspect of the band was simply that it never felt as if it fit. It’s easily adjustable, but no matter how I adjusted it, it always felt as if the band would fall off. It felt heavy and cumbersome. And you couldn’t even consider wearing it to a workout. You’d have to shell out an extra $50 for another band.

Apple WatchBusiness Insider / Matt JohnstonThe Milanese loop.

This band alone will run you an extra $150. It looks all right, but the Sport is all you really need. Which bring me to my final, important point: You can buy any band at any time and attach it to your existing Apple Watch.

So if you buy a Sport now and genuinely want something more premium-looking (which I’m guessing most people will not), you can always buy another band later and simply attach it.

I didn’t get a chance to try on the classic buckle loop ($149), the modern buckle ($249), or the pricey link bracelet ($449). And who knows, more people than I think might be interested in those bands. But there’s no reason to buy anything but the Sport out of the box. You can always easily change your mind and get another one, and chances are you’ll want the Sport anyway for exercising.

In short, it’s hard to screw up your purchase by spending the minimum on the Apple Watch Sport, which starts at $349 for the 38mm. I’d recommend everyone try on these things first before buying them, given the high price differential, but take it from me: You’ll probably end up with the Sport.

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Bubble fears just hit their highest level on record

More investors are worried about overvalued stocks and bonds than at any time in at least the past 12 years.

That’s the message from Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s latest survey of fund managers, which polls 145 participants managing a combined $494 billion (£337.4 billion) in assets on how they feel about a bunch of different investments.

Investors on the panel who think both stocks and bonds are overvalued outnumber those who don’t by 54%, the highest disparity since the series began in 2003. Concerns among the panel about a bubble specifically in stocks are at their highest level since records began in 2000.

Here’s how that looks:

stock bond bubble BAMLBAML

There are two other big moves in the BAML survey. More investors now think the dollar is overvalued than at any time since 2009:

dollar overvalued BAMLBAML

And they think the euro is more undervalued than at any time in the past 12 years:

euro undervalued BAMLBAML

The euro has fallen from just over $1.38 this time last year to below $1.06 — but these graphs suggest that plunge may be winding down.

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21 things you didn’t know your iPhone could do

iphone 6 and 6 plusJustin Sullivan/Getty Images

We’re nearly attached to our iPhones — we use them all day everyday, but you may be surprised to learn there are still a handful of things it can do that you probably didn’t know about.

Some of these features are buried in the Settings menu while others are hidden in plain sight.

(Note: Some of these features may only be available in iOS 8 and higher)

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JAMIE DIMON: ‘There will be another crisis’

jamie dimonReutersThe JPMorgan Chase CEO broke down the anatomy of a financial crisis.

In his annual letter to JPMorgan Chase shareholders, CEO Jamie Dimon has a clear warning:

Some things never change — there will be another crisis, and its impact will be felt by the financial markets.

Dimon adds that the trigger of the next financial crisis will not be the same as the most recent one, but no matter — another crisis will come.

And how it unravels will not be as unfamiliar as we might expect.

“While crises look different, the anatomy of how they play out does have common threads,” Dimon writes.

Here are the core behaviors investors exhibit when these crises break out, according to Dimon.

  • First, they sell the assets they believe are at the root of the problem.
  • Second, they generally look to put more of their money in havens, commonly selling riskier assets like credit and equities and buying safer assets by putting deposits in strong banks, buying Treasuries, or purchasing very safe money market funds.
  • Often at one point in a crisis, investors can sell only less risky assets if they need to raise cash because, virtually, there may be no market for the riskier ones.

And what’s more, no investor is truly safe in a crisis. Here’s Dimon:

These investors include individuals, corporations, mutual funds, pension plans, hedge funds — pretty much everyone — each individually doing the right thing for themselves but, collectively, creating the market disruption that we’ve witnessed before. This is the “run-on-the-market” phenomenon that you saw in the last crisis.

Dimon continues his discussion of what the next crisis could look like by breaking down how banks’ balance sheets had changed since the financial crisis.

Banks now hold 100% of liquid assets against potential cash outflows, and Dimon says no bank will want to be the first to admit that its liquidity coverage ratio has declined for fear of looking weak.

Dimon also says that investors will want to buy Treasuries because they are considered safe, but with Treasury supply declining, investors will have to find other places to put their capital.

Read Dimon’s full thoughts on the next crisis in his letter to shareholders here »

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