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Posts Tagged ‘Recession’

Here is an interresting observation from Pravda.

“It is becoming more and more evident, to the astute observer of realistic economics, that the second dip in the “W” global recession is coming up quickly. This is of course, identical to what took place between the 1929 collapse and the 1931 final landing. The world economy fell hard, bounced high and than fell into a deep black hole, that it took it thirty years to climb out of. This time will be worse, at least for the Anglos and more specifically the Americans.

The signs are everywhere: massive government stimulus (read money printing) whose only obvious effects have been on the stock markets around the world (again, just like in 1930), continued increases in global unemployment and thus a collapse in global goods demand, instability and a free fall in the shipping indexes. That is correct, it is not just the Baltic Dry Index, which is once again in a free fall, now that the Chinese have stopped hording iron ore, but also the various other indexes, including Chinese ones.

That is a sign of real doom, not only for China, but for many others. The fact that containers of goods are not moving out of China, in September and October, regardless that the Chinese stimulus has kept its factories producing as if nothing is wrong, means that the holiday shopping season will be empty and hallow, just like the Anglo mantra of recovery. Sure, France and Germany are out of recession and Russia and Italy are both heading out too, but that is because they have done the exact opposite of the Anglos, by cutting taxes, controlling spending, putting down real hard infrastructural investments and projects without tying them in courts and hearings for years, cutting regulations while avoiding nationalizations, in other words the smart moves vs the Anglos dumb ones. The Anglos, specifically America and England and to a lesser degree, Canada, have done the opposite on all accounts, regardless of warnings. No amount of Hopy-Changy media Zombies will change the inevitable out come.”

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Here is a good Financial Time article.

“The global economy is starting to bottom out from the worst recession and financial crisis since the Great Depression. In the fourth quarter of 2008 and first quarter of 2009 the rate at which most advanced economies were contracting was similar to the gross domestic product free-fall in the early stage of the Depression. Then, late last year, policymakers who had been behind the curve finally started to use most of the weapons in their arsenal.

That effort worked and the free-fall of economic activity eased. There are three open questions now on the outlook. When will the global recession be over? What will be the shape of the economic recovery? Are there risks of a relapse?”

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Here is an excellent read from GigaOm:

By now, most agree that this recession is likely be longer, deeper and fiercer than those in the past, rendering smaller, newer companies especially vulnerable. Such vulnerability is already playing out in the public markets: Over the past three months, the Russell 2000 has fallen much further than the Dow.

There is, however, a way for startups to not only stand out in this recession, but thrive in it: By being as disruptive as possible.

The me-too business model that fared pretty well during good times will be toxic this year. Venture-backed IPOs grew scarce last year and there will likely be few in 2009; merger activity is also expected to remain sluggish. Startups with little or no revenues or a high burn rate may not make it through December.

In an economy where risk is shunned, boldness is a risk that still offers a shot at success. It’s much easier to say this than to make it happen. But there is reason to believe that 2009 will allow original ideas, and companies behind them to come forth.

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The US economy appears to be plunging into what many experts believe will be its worst recession since 1982.

Senior officials at the Treasury and Federal Reserve are confident that the rescue plan for US banks will succeed in preventing a financial system meltdown and ensure there will not be a repeat of the Great Depression. But they know that a sharp economic downturn is already baked in the cake. They do not,however, know how deep or protracted it will be.

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http://www.foxbusiness.com/latest-news/article/recession-odds-increase-economists_569905_1.html

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