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Sallie Krawcheck, Steve Schwarzman, and 5 other successful entrepreneurs share the No. 1 lesson they learned from failing

Sallie KrawcheckREUTERS/Keith BedfordSallie Krawcheck, former head of Bank of America’s wealth and asset management division and the current CEO and cofounder of Ellevest.

Before I wrote my first book, I went to half a dozen writers conferences trying to learn how to “land the book deal.”

Most of the advice was pretty generic, save for one person’s.

The author was no J.K. Rowling, but she had moderate success and was seen by us in the audience as the person to aspire to.

As I listened intently, she described how the most boring part of her story was actually getting the book deal — far more interesting were all the rejections she confronted along the way.

Hearing her describe her painful rejections inspired me to go ahead with my own ambitions — if she could continually persevere in the face of numerous obstacles, what was to stop me?

No doubt, we learn far more about ourselves and our potential when we face failures. In fact, some CEOs have told me that they won’t even look at senior candidates who haven’t failed at least once in their careers. Eric Ries, author of “The Lean Startup,” which has become a bible of sorts for the startup entrepreneur, describes the acumen he honed after failing several times.

So what exactly do we learn from failing? I asked several highly successful people that question for my podcast, Radiate, and here are the seven best. (Click on their names to hear them talk about it in their own words):

1. Sallie Krawcheck learned how to redefine success. When she got fired from her second big Wall Street job, Krawcheck reassessed her career path and became an entrepreneur. She’s far more fulfilled today than she ever was in banking — even though the pay admittedly was nicer before. “Do you define yourself by the amount of money you make?” she said. “Do you define yourself by whether you have a corporate jet? I define myself by impact… What impact do I want to have … earlier in my career when you’re an investment banking analyst it’s hard to have an impact.”

2. George Zimmer learned his business model didn’t work. Ten years into his company, the former Men’s Wearhouse CEO was near bankruptcy — he traversed the country looking for half a million dollars in funds. Luckily, at the very end, his mother bailed out the business, but Zimmer says he learned a very valuable lesson: His business model wasn’t working. “It was from that problem that we actually redesigned the economic model in the mid-1980s and adopted everyday low pricing,” Zimmer said. Decades later, he was generating billions in sales.

3. Steve Schwarzman learned to speak his mind. Few people are as successful as private equity billionaire Schwarzman, but at one point, he was a high school senior like the rest of us applying for college admission. That’s about where the similarities end. When Schwarzman was rejected by Harvard, he did what almost none of us would do — called the dean to tell him he made a mistake. “I thought that they had made an error, or if they hadn’t made an error, at least they weren’t satisfying my objective,” he said. Schwarzman went on to Yale, and Harvard later felt that dull pang of regret.

4. Jay Margolis learned the importance of staying true to yourself. The retail veteran behind brands like Reebok, Esprit, Tommy Hilfiger, and others learned how important it is for the corporate culture to fit you. From day one, he recalls how he didn’t feel at home at Hilfiger. “Our values were different in terms of how we saw running a business and caring about what gets done and just how you work, and there were people in the company that I just wouldn’t have hired,” he said. Sure enough, it wasn’t long before he was let go. “You have to live your values. The company has to live your values. You have to have people who live the values.”

5. Andrea Jung learned it’s not about the title but doing something you love. When Jung was initially passed over for the CEO job at Avon, she didn’t leave. Instead, she worked her butt off for her rival. “I never woke up saying, I have to be the CEO. That wasn’t my end goal,” Jung said. “I guess really my end goal was to do work that I loved, to be able to contribute at a level and do work that I’m passionate about. And so I made the decision to stay.” It turned out staying was the right decision — the CEO abruptly left and Jung ended up with the top job anyway.

6. Trevor Burgess learned the importance of thick skin. When Burgess came out in college to his fraternity brothers, one called him a “renounced sodomite.” The backlash was painful and lonely. The bank CEO says, looking back, that the ugly episode helped him learn how to deal with rejection and criticism early on. “Going through that sort of experience, it taught me a couple of things,” he said. “One, that I needed to have really thick skin if I was going to survive, in the business world especially. And number two is that I did have to be authentic. I needed to be myself completely if I was going to be successful.”

7. Alan Patricof learned that the world is a bigger place than New York City. Patricof is a legend in the venture capital world, but even he makes mistakes. One particularly painful one is his decision to turn down investing in Starbucks. “I said, ‘Are you crazy? I mean, we’ve got coffee shops in New York. We’ve got two in every single block. They just call them luncheonettes or coffee shops. Why in the world do we need another coffee shop?'” Patricof said. “I didn’t understand the culture and what Starbucks was really about. It wasn’t a coffee shop. It was really a way of life … we suffer from thinking that since we have it in New York or it won’t work in New York that it won’t work some other place. That’s a discipline we keep trying to improve.”

Read the original article on Inc.. Copyright 2016. Follow Inc. on Twitter.

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Back in 1996, Steve Jobs gave a presentation with a bunch of predictions about the future – it turns out he nailed it

steve jobsMario Tama / Getty

In 1996, Google was still a research project at Stanford, the state-of-the-art PC operating system was Windows 95, and Amazon was a small startup selling books.And Steve Jobs was not yet back at Apple when he gave a remarkably prescient interview to Wired’s website the same year. Although the iMac, iPod, and iPhone were still years away, and Jobs was working at NeXT, he clearly saw where the computing industry was headed.

And although his later work at Apple clearly influenced the way things turned out, he still offers a slew of predictions that are shockingly accurate today.

Here’s what Jobs got right: http://www.businessinsider.com/nine-predictions-about-the-internet-steve-jobs-nailed-20-years-ago-2016-3?op=0#

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The iPhone ‘Special Edition’ will be missing a key feature from the iPhone 6S

Highly reliable supply chain analyst Ming Chi Kuo has detailed what to expect from the iPhone ‘Special Edition’ (SE), the latest rumored device in Apple’s phone lineup.

Apple is expected to launch the iPhone SE, as well as a new iPad and Apple Watch accessories, at an event held on March 21, Buzzfeed reports.

Here’s what Kuo is expecting, via MacRumors:

  • The iPhone SE will feature iPhone 6S internals in an iPhone 5 body complete with a 4-inch screen, including an A9 chip and NFC, which enables Apple Pay
  • One key feature is missing: 3D touch, one of Apple’s key features for the Phone 6S that enables what is essentially a “right click” interaction, is expected to remain exclusive to Apple’s more premium iPhones
  • Changes from the 5S include a slightly larger battery and “slightly curved 2.5D glass like the iPhone 6 and newer”
  • Two storage capacities, 16GB and 64GB
  • Pricing between $400 and $500, lower than the iPhone 6 currently sells for
  • Apple will keep the iPhone 5S as its least expensive new iPhone, which could be discounted to as little as $225

Meanwhile, Nowhereelse.fr has photos of what it says are components for the iPhone SE, which depict a screen assembly, seemingly confirming that the iPhone SE will lack the hardware needed for 3D Touch:

iPhone SE vs iPhone 6S 768x543Nowhereelse.fr

These component spy shots come days after a schematic supposedly depicting the iPhone SE was leaked from a case manufacturer by OnLeaks:

iphone 5 se leakOnleaks

People who are waiting for the iPhone 7, however, will need to hang on until September, when Apple traditionally reveals its new iPhones. Kuo notes that he’s expecting Apple to offer two different versions of the iPhone 7 Plus, one with a single camera, and one with dual-camera technology.

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We just got the clearest sign yet that something is wrong with the US economy

doorman new york apartmentSpencer Platt/Getty

We just got the clearest sign yet that something is wrong with the US economy.

Markit Economics’ monthly flash services purchasing manager’s index, a preliminary reading on the sector, fell into contraction for the first time in over two years.

The tentative February index was reported Wednesday at 49.8.

That’s below 50, the border between expansion and contraction.

The consensus over the state of the economy had been that gains in the labor market and in consumer spending were propelling growth amid a downturn in financial markets.

This narrative has hit a hiccup, however, with this report.

The services sector, which covers jobs including bartending and counseling, is essentially having its worst month since the recession. The only exception is when the government shutdown disrupted business activity in October 2013.

And because the services sector makes an outsize contribution to US economic activity — about two-thirds — a slowdown here is not good news for the rest of the picture.

Many economists expect that economic activity — measured by gross domestic product — will rebound in the first quarter from the fourth.

But Wednesday’s data shows “a significant risk of the US economy falling into contraction in the first quarter,” according to Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit.

According to Markit’s release, business activity was slammed by scarce new-work opportunities, as clients lacked confidence in the economic outlook, and snowy weather on the East Coast.

Markit noted that service providers had the weakest business outlook in nearly six years.

Screen Shot 2016 02 24 at 10.06.51 AMMarkit

“Slumping business confidence and an increased downturn in order book backlogs suggest there’s worse to come,” Williamson wrote.

“Any bounce-back from the weather may therefore prove to be only a temporary improvement in a steady downward trend of business conditions.”

Economists had estimated a preliminary reading of 53.5, a slight improvement from the prior reading of 53.2, according to Bloomberg.

The final reading for January showed that the sector was slowing down, as both Markit’s index and the ISM non-manufacturing composite fell.

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One smart stock market analyst thinks this is where we’re headed … (gulp)

1929 stock chartJohn Hussman, Hussman FundsThe calm before the storm in 1929 …

No one knows what the stock market is going to do, but if you want to get an informed sense of what it might do, it helps to understand what it has done.

And in the debate about where we’re headed next, one common mistake is confining observations of market history to recent trends instead of the many generations of market data that are now available.

One analyst who takes this long view is John Hussman of the Hussman Funds.

Hussman’s reputation has been clobbered of late because he missed the market turn in 2009 and then acted on his more recent concern about an impending crash several years too early.

As the market has struggled over the past 18 months, however, Hussman’s concerns have been partially vindicated.

And those hoping that the recent 15% drop from the peak was just a little bobble in a great new bull market won’t like where Hussman thinks we’re headed next.

Specifically …

Here’s where we are:

S&P 500 chartJohn Hussman, Hussman Funds

And here’s where Hussman thinks we’re headed next:

1929 stock chartJohn Hussman, Hussman FundsThe calm before the storm in 1929 …

That latter chart is a chart of the 1929 crash, one of the most famous in history.

Hussman thinks it also loosely illustrates our likely future.

Hussman’s key observation about that chart — and the charts of many other market crashes in history, the most recent two of which he has correctly called in advance (2000 and 2007) — is that market crashes generally follow the same pattern.

First, in a market in which stocks are highly overvalued (as they are today) and in which investors are increasingly risk-averse (as they are today — see the spreads on interest rates between safe and risky bonds), crashes are much more likely than they are in any other market environment.

Second, crashes do not just happen suddenly — for years everything’s great and then one day the market just falls out of the sky. Rather, crashes develop over many months. And the “crash” itself — the period of massive, near-vertical market losses — generally starts after the market is already down about 15%.

That’s the insight to note in the chart above.

And because one observation is rarely persuasive, here’s another Hussman chart, this one showing the crash in 1987. Same pattern. Down about 10% to 20% from the top, some failed recoveries, and then, blam.

1987 crashJohn Hussman, Hussman Funds

And, for good measure, here are charts of the crashes in 2000 and 2007. Same pattern. A general peaking and “rolling over” for many months, followed by a 10% to 20% drop, followed by some stabilization and recovery, followed by a mega-crash.

2000:

2000 market crashGoogle Finance

2007:

2007 crashGoogle Finance

Is that what will happen this time?

No one knows.

But anyone who’s feeling comfortable after a strong week in the markets should at least understand that: 1. The macro environment most conducive to crashes is still in place (overvaluation + increasing risk aversion) and 2. The way the market is behaving now is exactly the way it behaved before the biggest crashes in history.

So, neither Hussman, nor I, nor you should be surprised if the market keeps on dropping and doesn’t bottom until it’s down 50% or more from the peak.

As Hussman noted last week in his usual depressing note, a 50% crash would not even be the worst-case scenario. It would just be a normal correction from valuations we reached in 2015.

The “worst-case scenario,” meanwhile, would take us down 75%.

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