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Article from GigaOm.

By Max Levchin, Serial entrepreneur (As told to Janko Roettgers)

Max Levchin was the co-founder and CTO of Paypal, and founded Slide in 2004. He served as Slide’s CEO until the company was sold to Google in 2010, and left Google in the fall of 2011. He is also an investor in various startups, and is currently working on a new stealth-mode startup in the big data space. We wanted to hear what his plans for next year look like, and what kind of big trends he sees emerge.

My mission for myself is to help the world make sense of data. We have gone from not knowing what’s going on around us to being able to record and track just about anything.

The emergence of inexpensive sensors is the singularly most exciting thing about the world in many ways. A big part of our life is to make sense of it all before it’s too late. Why are things happening? What is going on with us? What is going on with other people? Sensors answer that in a big way. There is a famous scene in The Graduate, where the main character is being advised: “You know what you should spend your time on — plastics.” I think if someone rewrote that movie today, the answer would be “sensors.”

Fifteen years ago, you had to go to a hospital to get your vital signs checked. I imagine that in five years from now, T-Shirts will have a sensor built in that will measure your blood pressure, and then transmit that information to your phone, and your phone will text you when your blood pressure is too high — no doctors or nurses involved, just a cloud service for health monitoring.

The ubiquity of mobile devices, networks, bandwidth, cheap sensors and transmission, and cloud-based services, along with the liberation of information that was once thought of as very valuable and private and allowing it to live on a server as opposed to your personal desktop or phone — those are the pieces that will lead to exciting developments in a lot of industries, from health to transportation to energy.

Sensors are generating lots of data to process, and the big data industry will benefit tremendously from all the new sources. I think the world will be enhanced and shaped by our understanding of data for the next 100 years, and I want to participate in bringing that about. My current startup will have a lot to do with the whole emerging big data movement.

When I was analyzing what I wanted to do next, I realized I have always been really excited about data. At Paypal, I spent the majority of my time data mining — trying to understand the behavior of consumers and merchants, so that we could predict and appropriately price fraud. Being able to correctly price risk, transitions you from being a a regular payment startup to a profitable payment startup.

At Slide, we built entertainment products. But again, I was excited about the behavioral data that we generated. And I have been investing in companies that deal with big data, such as Mixpanel, which is a data analytics company, and Kaggle, which is a data science talent marketplace.

I left in Google around the beginning of October, because my ability to make an impact in a way that was both satisfying to me and useful to Google was waning. So this is the right time for me to reinvent myself again. I want to focus on taking bigger risks, to think bigger, aim higher, and build more long-term things.

One of the disturbing trends in Silicon Valley that I have seen is that a lot of people are very short-term focused, and innovation is stagnating. I think we are approaching the point where the “hard problems” of the Internet have been identified and many have been solved, so you see a lot of consumptive-type creation. There’s an attitude of, “Hey, let’s build this, it will be great, we will hammer it out and sell it to the highest bidder.”

But I think there are plenty of things that can be explored and invested in. You just have to break out of the existing mind set.

I think mobile is flipping from being a small, constrained window onto the Web to this cool new thing that’s finally living up to all those promises. Your phone or tablet is becoming a primary view on what’s going on, which is very powerful. Maybe by the end of next year, we will think of the Web as an unnecessarily large window into mobile. It will be thought of as a strictly desktop experience, what you do when you can’t stand up and move around.

I think collaborative consumption is really great, too. Companies like AirBnB and Uber and all the different variants of that model are a sane, free market way of redistributing resources to those who need them the most and are willing to pay fair-market price for them. It basically brings access to people that haven’t had it before. At some point, somewhere, somebody is dying to get rid of an apple, and somebody is starving. Creating a cheap way of connecting those two people makes the world a better place. That’s a very exciting trend and there are a million little startups trying to build solutions for different verticals — for saving time, saving resources, saving gas, saving everything that can possibly be saved. I’m thrilled about that.

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Article from SFGate.

“EBay Inc.’s purchase of mobile-payment startup Zong Inc. for $240 million is stepping up pressure on companies such as Google Inc. and American Express Co. to make their own acquisitions in the market.

Google has held exploratory discussions with mobile-payment startups, according to two people with knowledge of the meetings. Credit card companies, including American Express and Visa Inc., also are meeting with takeover candidates, though deals may not be imminent, people familiar with the talks said.

More consumers are looking to pay for things like movie tickets, apps and other items with their phones – rather than cards or cash. That’s pitting financial-service providers, which benefit from transactions, against technology companies like Google. Both sides aim to use mergers and acquisitions to shore up their positions, said Richard Crone, who runs Crone Consulting LLC, a firm focused on mobile banking and payments.

“There’re much more M&A and roll-ups to come in this space,” Crone said. “You will see the activity happening before the end of the year.”

The total value of mobile payments will reach $670 billion by 2015, up from $240 billion in 2011, according to Juniper Research. That includes transactions for digital and physical goods, money transfers and payments using near field communication – a wireless technology that lets users tap their phones against a reader to make a purchase.

Mainstream acceptance

Many companies are shopping for startups that help users charge purchases to their phone bills. Within a year, 40 percent of all U.S. mobile subscribers will put items other than ring tones on wireless bills, according to Chetan Sharma, an industry analyst in Issaquah, Wash. That’s up from 30 percent now.

Potential acquisition targets include Boku Inc.; Payfone Inc.; BilltoMobile, which is majority-owned by Danal Co.; and Amdocs Ltd.’s OpenMarket Inc., Sharma said.

Syniverse Technologies Inc., MindMatics AG’s Mopay unit, Bango and Vindicia Inc. could be candidates as well, according to Crone. Acquisition targets will sell for 10 to 20 times their trailing 12-month sales, he said. It’s unclear how that measures up against the Zong deal because eBay didn’t disclose the startup’s revenue when it announced the purchase last week.

Still, some startups may struggle to attract a deep-pocketed suitor or land that kind of premium. And large technology and finance companies may choose to develop the capabilities themselves.

‘Pressure to act’

Representatives from Google, American Express and Visa declined to comment on any potential deals, as did Bango, Boku, Payfone, Syniverse and Vindicia. OpenMarket didn’t respond to requests for comment.

Ingo Lippert, CEO of Palo Alto’s Mopay, said the Zong deal will likely give rise to more acquisitions, though his company is “solely focused” on operations.

“We’ve been forecasting consolidation within the mobile-payments space for some time,” Lippert said in an e-mail. “With Zong’s acquisition, companies testing out solutions within the mobile-payments market will now feel increased pressure to act.”

Investments in payment startups began picking up several months ago. In February, Visa agreed to spend about $190 million, plus performance incentives, to purchase PlaySpan Inc. The company handles purchases of virtual goods in online games and social networks. In April, American Express led a $19 million funding round in Payfone, a developer of a mobile-payment service.

EBay’s buying spree

Last year, eBay acquired Red Laser and Milo, two comparison-shopping applications that allow users to scan product barcodes and read reviews. With Zong, the company will get a bigger foothold for its PayPal payment service on phones, especially in developing countries.

Zong lets people pay for things by putting them on their mobile-phone bills. That’s attractive in emerging markets, where credit card adoption is low.

“The phone is ubiquitous, and credit cards are not,” Rodger Desai, CEO of Payfone, said.

U.S. carriers lets third-party services such as BilltoMobile operate on their networks. Verizon Wireless, for instance, allows charges of as much as $25 a month. BilltoMobile also declined to comment on whether it was a takeover target.

Carrier bills contained $3 billion worth of charges for virtual goods last year, and these charges are rising at 38 percent annually, Crone estimates. Those purchases can include ring tones, dating-site subscriptions and weapons for mobile video games.

Purchases of apps charged to wireless bills reached $5 billion last year and are growing at 68 percent a year, Crone said. Consumers in countries such as South Korea are increasingly charging physical goods to carrier bills as well.

“We are seeing very rapid growth,” said Jim Greenwell, CEO of BilltoMobile.”

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Article from NYTimes.

“For Reid Hoffman, the chairman of LinkedIn, it took less than 30 minutes to earn himself an extra $200 million.

With the hours ticking down to his company’s stock market debut, Mr. Hoffman dialed into a conference call from San Francisco’s Ritz-Carlton hotel as his chief executive, Jeff Weiner, and a team of bankers raced up from Silicon Valley in a black S.U.V. to meet with potential investors.

Demand for shares was intense, and they decided to raise the offering price by $10, to around $45.

When trading began on May 19, LinkedIn did not open at $45. Or $55. Or $65. Instead, the first shares were snapped up for $83 each and soon soared past $100, showering a string of players with riches and signaling a gold rush that has not been seen since the giddy days of the tech frenzy a decade ago.

Now there are signs that a new technology bubble is inflating, this time centered on the narrow niche of social networking. Other tech offerings, like that of the Internet radio service Pandora last week, have struggled, and analysts have warned that overly optimistic investors could once again suffer huge losses.

That enthusiasm was on full display in the blockbuster debut of LinkedIn, which provides a window into how a small group — bankers and lawyers, employees who get in on the ground floor, early investors — is taking a hefty cut at each twist in the road from Silicon Valley start-up to Wall Street success story.

“The LinkedIn I.P.O. will be used very powerfully over the next year as these companies go public and bankers deal with Silicon Valley,” said Peter Thiel, the president of Clarium Capital in San Francisco and an early investor in PayPal, LinkedIn and Facebook. “It sets things up for the other big deals.”

The sharp run-up after the initial public offering set off a fierce debate among observers about whether the bankers had mispriced it and left billions on the table for their clients to pocket. But the pent-up demand for what was perceived as a hot technology stock set the stage for easy money to be made almost regardless of the offering price.

Naturally, Wall Street is enjoying a windfall. Technology I.P.O.’s have generated nearly $330 million this year in fees for the biggest banks and brokerages, nearly 10 times the haul for the same period last year, and the most since 2000.

Besides the $28.4 million in fees for LinkedIn’s underwriting team, which was led by Morgan Stanley, Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase, there were also a few slices reserved for specialists like lawyers and accountants. Wilson Sonsini, the most powerful law firm in Silicon Valley, collected $1.5 million, while the accounting firm Deloitte & Touche earned $1.35 million.

Mr. Hoffman founded LinkedIn in March 2003 after making a fortune as an executive at PayPal, the online payments service, but even as LinkedIn grew and other employees and private backers got stakes, Mr. Hoffman retained 21.2 percent, giving him more than 19 million shares when it went public. He has kept nearly of all them, so for now his $858 million fortune — it was $667 million before the last-minute price hike — remains mostly on paper.

Mr. Weiner arrived more recently, in late 2008, after working at Yahoo and as an adviser to venture capital firms, but his welcome package included the right to buy 3.5 million shares at just $2.32. And they are not the only big winners who secured shares at levels far below the I.P.O. price.

For example, when LinkedIn raised cash in mid-2008, venture capital firms including Bessemer Venture Partners and Sequoia Capital, scooped up 6.6 million shares at $11.47 each in return for early financing. They have held on to the stock, but Goldman Sachs, which got 871,840 shares at $11.47, sold all of it for a one-day gain of nearly $30 million.

Scores of fortunate individuals also managed to profit.

Stephen Beitzel, a software engineer, worked at LinkedIn from its founding until March 2004, but kept his stock when he left. His shares are now worth $17 million, and he sold $1.3 million worth in the offering.”

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Article from SFGate.

“If Facebook were a country, it would be the third largest in the world, so it figures that the social networking giant is trying to develop its own currency – Facebook Credits. Already, those credits can buy virtual goods from more than 200 applications on the Facebook platform, like special crop seeds or enhanced tractors in the otherwise free-to-play social game FarmVille. But credits have moved into the physical world as well. Last week, Safeway Stores joined Target, Best Buy and Walmart in selling Facebook Credit gift cards, just in time for them to become a stocking stuffer for the onrushing holiday shopping season. “We want Facebook Credits to be the virtual currency on Facebook,” said product marketing manager Deborah Liu for the Palo Alto firm. Analysts say Facebook Credits also have the potential to become a universal online currency that crosses both applications and country borders, not to mention a multibillion-dollar revenue source for Facebook, which takes a 30 percent cut of each transaction. Credits, for example, could be the future currency used by publishers of digital content like news and video, said analyst Atul Bagga of the investment research firm Think Equity LLC. For now, “Facebook is only taking baby steps,” Bagga said. “But you can see that Facebook Credits can go far.”

Positioned to win

Indeed, online payment systems are a key component of the main theme for the Web 2.0 Summit that begins today at the Palace Hotel in San Francisco. The convention will focus on “a battle to gain the upper hand in crucial ‘points of control’ across the Internet Economy,” entrepreneur and tech journalist John Battelle wrote earlier this year in a blog post setting up the theme for this year’s conference. And with more than 500 million active members, Facebook is already positioned to become a winner in that battle. “As Facebook Credits increases in usage, Facebook will begin to look and feel like its own economy,” said Augie Ray, a senior analyst at Forrester Research Inc. The privately held Facebook isn’t disclosing how many of its members now use Facebook Credits, which grew out of a Gift Shop feature that closed Aug. 1. Earlier this month, Wedbush Securities projected Facebook will generate more than $1 billion in sales from virtual goods this year, and approach $2 billion next year. Currently, there are more than 200 games and applications from 75 developers that accept Facebook Credits for those virtual goods, including 22 of the 25 most popular social games. On Nov. 2, Facebook signed a five-year deal with Redwood City video game giant Electronic Arts to use Facebook Credits as its exclusive payment method for its social games, such as Pet Society, Restaurant City and FIFA Superstars. That followed a similar deal earlier this year with San Francisco’s Zynga Game Network Inc., maker of popular social games like FarmVille. But there are non-game apps, such as Family Tree and Hallmark Social Calendar, that also accept Facebook Credits for virtual gifts such as digital birthday cards. And charitable organizations like Stand Up to Cancer and the anti-malaria Nothing But Nets have accepted Facebook Credits donations. The payment system could become especially important since Facebook is also pushing its Connect program to directly bridge the social network’s members with millions of other websites.

Making it easy

The system works in a way that’s similar to real-world transactions such as using a BART transit card. Facebook members use a regular credit card, PayPal account or mobile phone account to buy a certain value of Facebook Credits, starting with 15 credits for $1.50. Facebook Credits accepts payments using 15 currencies, including dollars, euros and yen. Like BART cards, which deduct fares based on the distance of travel on the system, a Facebook Credits account is charged for the value of a virtual item that in real currency might cost only a few cents each. It’s the basic concept used by Apple Inc. to sell 99-cent songs on iTunes at a time when downloading songs for free was all the rage, said Alex Rampell, chief executive officer of Trial Pay Inc. “How did Apple get everybody to pay? They just made it very easy,” said Rampell, whose Mountain View company offers an advertising system that entices social game players to try a real product like pizza or cosmetics in exchange for Facebook Credits. Indeed, Facebook’s Liu said the company sees a “sweet spot” for making a frictionless micro-payment system. The company is slowly expanding its list of developers who can “just plug into Facebook Credits” and not have to worry about creating their own payment system, she said. Social gaming is just the first industry to be affected, “but we think a number of verticals will break through,” Liu said.

Potential markets

Airline tickets or other big-ticket purchases may not be practical for Facebook Credits. But news site publishers, for example, could use Facebook Credits to get readers to buy access to an important story or a special video, Bagga said. “And music is a very social phenomenon,” he said. “There are so many industries that can have disruptions due to the social networking phenomenon.” Facebook, however, is based on the proposition that members make the network work by sharing their personal information, so it has also sparked numerous controversies over privacy. Facebook Credits might bring even more scrutiny. “As Facebook becomes a bigger part of the user’s shopping and purchasing activities as well as an even greater part of their communications activities, there’s going to be a greater focus on the part of government as to what Facebook is doing,” Ray said. Read more here

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Article from SF Gate.

“Pinger Inc., a San Jose developer of mobile applications, can get twice as much in sales from programs for Apple devices than for phones powered by Android software. That’s not stopping it from creating its first Android app.

“Even if the revenue generation might be less, we think it’s still going to be significant,” said Joe Sipher, chief product and marketing officer at Pinger, which makes text-messaging and other programs. “Our users are saying, ‘Gosh, I switched to an Android phone. Can you put your Textfree app on Android?’ ”

Pinger and other programmers don’t want to miss out on the $40 billion that Booz & Co. estimates will come from sales of apps by 2014, much of it from Google Inc.‘s Android platform. Android unseated Research In Motion Ltd.‘s mobile operating system as the top U.S. smart phone software last quarter, making developers more willing to put up with its drawbacks, including higher app-creation costs and an online marketplace some users consider harder to navigate than Apple’s App Store.

PopCap Games Inc., maker of the Bejeweled and Plants vs. Zombies games, doesn’t have any titles in the Android Market. But by mid-2011, the Seattle company expects to release games simultaneously for iPhone and Android handsets.

“Even though we are not making any money on Android right now, we have pretty high hopes for it,” said Andrew Stein, PopCap’s director of mobile business development. “There’s really no reason why users shouldn’t consume and buy content to the same extent on an Android phone as they are on an iPhone.”

Android phones like Motorola Inc.’s Droid X and HTC Corp.’s Droid Incredible are gaining devotees. Stein expects the revenue generated from Android games to approach that of PopCap’s iPhone versions by the end of 2011.

Apple way ahead

A wide variety of apps – as well as the availability of the most popular ones for games, location, texting and content – is critical to luring phone buyers. Android lags behind Apple by that measure. Apple has more than 250,000 apps available, compared with about 70,000 for Android.

Like Apple, Google takes a 30 percent cut of revenue from apps sold in its marketplace.

“We want to reduce friction and remove the barriers that make it difficult for developers to make great apps available to users – across as many devices, geographies and carriers as possible,” said Randall Sarafa, a Google spokesman.

Google may be taking steps to remedy some of the problems that make Android apps less lucrative to developers.

Apple iTunes users can do one-click shopping because iTunes saves their information. While Android buyers can do the same if they sign up for Google Checkout, that service doesn’t have as many users.

Android Market also lacks features for in-app purchases, which some developers of Apple apps use to sell new game levels or virtual products, said Tim Chang, a venture capitalist at Norwest Venture Partners, whose investments includes Ngmoco of San Francisco, which makes games for the iPhone.

Google is in talks with eBay’s PayPal to add its payment service, three people familiar with the matter said last month. That may ease the process. Google may also offer tools that let developers sell subscriptions and virtual goods from within apps, Andy Rubin, Google’s vice president of engineering, said in June.

For now, producing programs for Android isn’t as lucrative. Loopt Inc., the maker of an app for locating your friends on a map, and Zecter Inc., which offers the ZumoDrive file storage service, said they make less from the sales of their Android apps than they do from their iPhone versions. Neither of the Mountain View companies would specify the difference.

Developers hesitant

“There’s no question Android has a lot more phones out than six months ago, but that’s very different from saying Android is a more appealing platform for developers,” said Sam Altman, chief executive officer at Loopt.

ZumoDrive makes money by getting people to download the free program and then upgrade to a paid version. Thirty percent more iPhone customers do that, said CEO David Zhao.

Besides generating fewer downloads of paid apps, fewer people click on ads in Android programs, according to data from Smaato Inc., a Redwood City mobile-ad firm. In July, the iPhone had a click-through score of 140 in the United States, compared with 103 for Android, Smaato said.

Plus, the market share Gartner Inc. measures for Android – 34 percent in the United States last quarter – doesn’t mean there are that many customers for apps, said Pinger’s Sipher. Some Android phones don’t have the ability to access Google’s app store and the proliferation of models means some programs won’t work on some phones.

App creators have to contend with various versions of Android and differences in screen resolution and keyboards. That makes it more expensive to test programs and can force developers to design for the lowest common denominator, said Bill Predmore, president of POP, which builds mobile applications and ads for such clients as Google, Microsoft Corp. and Target Corp.”

Read more: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2010/09/01/BU381F6GOA.DTL&type=tech#ixzz0yLeTxmEa

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