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Archive for August, 2011

Is the Google deal about Larry Pages’ desire to become the best strategist in the world?

Posted in Board Of Intellectual Capital, boic, Business models, Economy, Intellectual capital, internet, Investments, Market research, Social Networks, Strategy, tagged , , , , , , , , on August 16, 2011| Leave a Comment »

By Tony Fish, AMF Ventures and member of Gerbsman Partners Board Of Intellectual Partners.

The changing face of mobile

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Surprised at the latest Google deal to acquire Motorola Mobility for $12.5Bn, you should not be; Eric Schmidt was very clear back at MWC in FEB 2007 “Mobile Mobile Mobile” and since then Google has focussed both time and effort to deliver andriod (which was itself acquired).  When Schmidt stepped down in saying “ adult supervision no longer required” this left open the matured Larry Page to step up from being great at maths and a world leading entrepreneur, to take on the mantel of “world leading strategist and deal doer.”

This deal will be the discussion point for the next 3 months and already there are a lot of views circulating about what it means but there is no doubt that depending on your stance you can argue for change. However at Mobile 2 on 1st Sept in SFO – we get the first bite, why not join in. 

The Deal

Google purchased Motorola’s mobile business for $12.5 billion. In doing so, Google brought patents, hardware design, manufacturing and a seat at the patent table. However the context is… Oracle suing, Apple winning, eco-system struggling, Samsung annoyed and Microsoft attacking

Worthy of Note

Google has bought in cash and not shares.  This commitment will reduce their cash balance to $22bn from the mid thirties, but it is cash.  Given the issues that cash purchases delivered to telecoms in 2000/2001 this is an important fact as many ran into immediate issues and sold off key assets.  However, I expect the reason that this is cash is that Google are not expecting to hold the operational assets for long.  An equity purchase could have caused them problems from shareholders when they flip it assuming it completes in Q1 2012

Why now?

Porter 5 forces model is helpful here as it highlights the dynamic nature of the mobile market that Google faces.  Their power is low, their service fragmented and  they are being attacked.

Implications

This deal will be the discussion point for the next 3 months and already there are a lot of views circulating about what it means but there is no doubt that depending on your stance you can argue for change. However at Mobile 2 on 1st Sept in SFO – we get the first bite, why not join in.

Starting from the view of the world formed by ….

  • Operators – Deal does not change anything as we are the controllers of mobile – we keep all manufacturers below 30% market share and make sure it is a competitive supply market.  However, we are still worried about becoming bit pipe….
  • Oracle/ Sun/ Java – Defence needed as android has been beset with legal challenges from all sides, including a multibillion dollar lawsuit filed by Oracle, but Motorola patents are about wireless tech and unlikely to help.
  • Apple – By purchasing a manufacturer, Google has admitted it needs more than just a free operating system and loads of partners to compete with Apple: they need to duplicate Apple’s successes by totally controlling both the hardware and software of their devices.
  • OEM ‘s –  “Google has gone from partner to competitor.”
  • Media/ Content owners – According to Infonetics, Motorola Mobility was the leader in set-top box revenues last year, and was also tops in hybrid IP/QAM set-top boxes — that is, the boxes used by operators like Verizon that combine broadcast TV and over-the-top applications. By leveraging Motorola’s position with carriers, Google can better solidify its bid to expand Google TV and Android into the living room.”
  • Developers – At least there is one less system to deal with.

Scenarios and outcomes

  • The production shop – In this scenario Google keeps Motorola as is and starts to manufacture it owns handsets.  In reality this could provide short term stability to the fragmented andriod market place and show case devices and move into other screen based markets, but in the long run looks like a new Apple and being open is probably not a true option. Probability in long run 10% as this would not elevate Page to world class strategist who is just following Jobs view of the world.
  • The negotiator tactic –This is the company official line that the acquisition brings 17,000 patents (but are they relevant) to Google and enables them to robustly defend their mobile position and also expand.  It is a $12.5bn investment to get a seat at the table.  Strategically there is a lot of truth in this as mobile will dominate long term strategy and value. Probability in long run 25% as patents only last for a period….

Power to disrupt

Imagine Google takes the patents, yes they are useful to defend/ negotiate but also to empower others if free and open. This would reduce the power of others in the market and change the dynamics

Imagine Google keeps the patents and sells on production to Samsung to create a global partner across all screens

Imagine Google Wallet becomes the model – forget small transaction fees – lets go for user data in every model

Probability in long run 65% and Larry Page is now the best strategist in the world and did it without adult supervision.

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Guess who else wanted to buy Motorola?

Posted in Board Of Intellectual Capital, Business models, Economy, Investments, Market research, Strategy, Technology, tagged , , , , , , , on August 15, 2011| Leave a Comment »

Article from GigaOm.

Google may not have had much of a choice when it came to buying Motorola Mobility for $12.5 billion. If it didn’t, someone else would have and that would have put the company in an even bigger patent hole.

Our sources say that Motorola was in acquisition talks with several parties, including Microsoft for quite some time. Microsoft was interested in acquiring Motorola’s patent portfolio that would have allowed it to torpedo Android even further. The possibility of that deal brought Google to the negotiation table, resulting in the blockbuster sale.

Motorola found a Google deal more digestible because Microsoft had no interest in running a hardware business and was essentially interested in Motorola’s vast collection of patents. Google moved aggressively, and at $40 a share, Google is now paying a 60 percent premium to Motorola’s recent stock price. The deal it struck gives it access to Motorola’s strong portfolio of 17,000 current patents and 7,500 patent applications across wireless standards and non-essential patents on wireless service delivery.

The high-level talks between Google and Motorola started about five weeks ago. Google CEO Larry Page and Motorola CEO Sanjay Jha were talking directly, and only a handful of executives were brought into discussions. Our sources suggest that Android co-founder Andy Rubin was brought into the talks only very recently.

My view is that while Google might have won the battle, in the long run it has put the Android ecosystem at risk. Mobile industry insiders view this as a ray of hope for Windows Mobile Phone 7 to sign-up the disillusioned handset makers who at this point must be reworking their mobile OS strategies.

Read original post here.

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Fashion + Politics Iowa 2011

Posted in Uncategorized, tagged , on August 13, 2011| Leave a Comment »

Fashion + Politics: Hitting the Campaign Trail in Style

WASHINGTON, DC — Political style expert, Lauren A. Rothman sounds off on campaign fashion – who wore what and why they wore it. Learn how fashion speaks volumes about a candidate’s politics. Lauren, stylist, advisor to the political elite, and co-author of political style feature The Fashion Whip on HuffingtonPost.com is the founder of Styleauteur, a fashion, style, and trend consulting firm based in our nation’s capitol.

Lauren is passionate about working with our servicemen and women returning from overseas deployments and also counsels Congressmen and top brass at the Pentagon regarding professional dress. Her client roster includes the Washington Redskins, the Pentagon, Morgan Stanley, PricewaterhouseCoopers, Clifford Chance, Lord and Taylor, Saks Fifth Avenue, Cusp, and Bloomingdale’s. Her tips on wardrobe management and creating a versatile, fashion-forward closet have been featured in Glamour, Real Simple, and Washingtonian magazines, in Politico, and on NPR and XM/Sirius radio.

Lauren bridges the gap between fashion and politics – view her online portfolio at www.styleauteur.com and review her television and press clips at www.styleauteur.com/press.
www.facebook.com/styleauteur
http://twitter.com/styleauteur

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Apple flirts with ranking of biggest company

Posted in Board Of Intellectual Capital, Business models, Economy, Investments, Market research, Strategy, Technology, tagged , , , , , , , on August 10, 2011| Leave a Comment »

Article from SFGate.

“Apple sliced through the competition to briefly become the most valuable company in the world Tuesday, as its market capitalization surged past No. 1 Exxon before settling slightly lower.

The Cupertino company closed the day with its stock up 5.9 percent to $374.01 per share, valuing it at $346.7 billion. Exxon, the Texas oil giant, ended the day with a value of $348.3 billion.

It capped an astonishing turnaround for a company that founder Steve Jobs has said was weeks from bankruptcy when he returned as CEO in 1997 and focused the company on a handful of key products.

Apple’s stock price has gone up nearly 35 percent in the past year, reflecting heightened confidence among investors in its line of computers and mobile devices. In its most recent quarter, the company posted a record $28.57 billion in revenue as sales of the iPhone, iPad and notebook computers soared.

The company’s growth is particularly strong in the Chinese market, Apple Chief Operating Officer Tim Cook told analysts last month. International sales accounted for 62 percent of Apple’s revenue in the last quarter.

The company is expected to continue growing in the near term, analysts predict. A new iPhone is expected in the fall, and analysts say Apple might also introduce a lower-cost model that would help the company reach a lucrative new market.

Sales of the iPad continue to soar. Apple sold 9.25 million of the tablet computers in the last quarter, a 183 percent increase over the same period in 2010.

“On the iPad side, they’re so far ahead of the market that none of the Android or other tablet competitors have really made much of a dent in their market share,” said Charles Golvin, an analyst with Forrester Research. “‘Tablet is still essentially synonymous with ‘iPad.’ ”

It was less than two years ago that Apple joined the list of the 10 most-valuable U.S. companies. Since then, it has made a rapid ascent, surpassing Microsoft last year to become the world’s most valuable technology company.

Less than a month ago, Exxon was worth more than $50 billion more than Apple. Exxon’s market value declined as investors became pessimistic about prospects for economic growth, which drives demand for oil.”

Read more.

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“What About Me” by Don Middleberg, Middlerberg Communicaitons and a member of Gerbsman Partenrs Board of Intellectual Capital

Posted in Business models, google, Inetellectual Property, internet, Social Networks, Strategy, Technology, tagged on August 4, 2011| Leave a Comment »

What About Me?

As I patiently wait for my invitation to join Spotify, I can’t help but think about the way social media and all of the newest online, must-join sites have used exclusivity to create buzz. I couldn’t help but feel “accepted” when I finally received the invite to join Google+. I relate it to getting a bid from a popular fraternity or even getting invited to a great party. Like the kids that stuffed themselves with chocolate with the hopes of visiting Willy Wonka’s Chocolate Factory, there are millions of people staring at their inboxes waiting for their golden ticket to explore parts of the web that are new and uncharted.

Whether it be a new website or gadget, brands have us all waiting patiently to visit or play with them. I gave TechCrunch’s live blog feed during the unveiling of the iPad2 the same attention I gave the final episode of the Sopranos (but at least Apple gave me something to look forward to). Is it because Twitter and Facebook have become boring? Not really. It seems like Facebook comes out with a new feature monthly. I think it’s because we are all trying to stay ahead of the curve. In my case, I want to be able to share something new with a client, especially the “next big thing.” But a lot of these new offerings make life easier. Apple’s iCloud will be available in Fall. I have hundreds of apps and documents in addition to thousands of songs and pictures spread across five different devices in my home, office, and pocket. To me, iCloud equals organization and efficiency, something I am sure we could all use more of in our lives.

So be patient all, and if you’re looking for an invite to Google+, reach out to us on Facebook and we’ll hook you up. Also, check out some of the links below for a couple of shortcuts to getting an invite to Spotify.

http://www.spotify.com/us/coca-cola/

http://venturebeat.com/2011/07/14/spotify-invites-from-klout/

Don Middleberg
Middleberg Communications, LLC
317 Madison Avenue, 15th Fl.
(entrance on 42nd st)
New York, NY 10017
P:  212-812-5664
M: 914.629.3999
twitter.com/donmiddleberg

don@middlebergcommunications.com

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